Promotion Mini-league

BoroMart

BoroMart

Well-known member
So we are at that point where the 6 pointers come to the fore. I reckon there are 9 teams that will be in the mix for play offs promotion. Yes Burnley are already up effectively. But I don't think Sheff Utd are there yet.

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Key points:

- Burnleys record against the other top sides phenomenal.
- Sheff Utd unbeaten against the top sides.....however, they've played the least games against the top sides, and onlt 3 away games against the top teams. So expect this to drop. They've got the most difficult run in statistically. Without their form changing, expect us to catch up 5 or 6 points on them, purely due to the fixtures they have left
- I'd rule Millwall and Norwich out of play off success due to their real poor form against good sides
- Luton have done equally as well as us against the top sides, but they've got 2 more difficult games than us in the run in
- Statistically we are realistically the only side that can catch Sheff Utd.


Lets see how this pans out over the next 3 or 4 weeks.
 
indeedido

indeedido

Well-known member
A useful input thanks, ut Watford should be in that mix, if Sunderland and Norwich are.

IMHO we could, but won't quite catch Sheff U. We will finish 3rd and West Brom 4th, despite us being the second best team.
Below that the 5th and 6th spots are still open to an awful lot of clubs.
 
Ipad1977

Ipad1977

Well-known member
Jedi boro said:
We were but they still robbed us.

Never a pen
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A fairer reflection of that game would have been a 2-1 win for them IMHO, which wouldn't have made that much difference if so. Unless we end up level on points with the Blades with a similar GD of course...
 
BoroMart

BoroMart

Well-known member
Right fixed it, Watford added in:

1675644853450.png

So 6-pointers:

- Sheff United have the most left, 9 of them. Us and Norwich only have 5 left.
- Sheff United have got 5 tough away games left, the most, expect that gap to the play off teams to drop, regardless
- Watford have a pretty good record vs the big sides at home, but they only have 2 of them left to visit West Brom and Blackburn, their away form vs the good sides isn't so good. They play Burnley, Sheff Utd, Sunderland and Luton away in the run in, they'll drop points there.
- West Brom have to play 5 big sides at home, but they need to turn around the form, without a win in 4 games against good sides at the Hawthorne. Could be their Achilles heel
- Norwich, I'll stand by it, I don't think they make the play offs, and if they do, I can't see them winning it
 
M

mbg42

Member
It is interesting to see tables like these but I dont know how valid this information is at predicting future outcomes.
6 of those teams have changed their manager and with that change comes a change in style and fortune. Us and West Brom are the biggest examples of this but I think also Norwich will be as time goes on as they will probably become more solid at the back.
Our home defeat came against Blackburn with Leo in charge, I don't even think Blackburn should be in this table as they are done and drifting away.
 
N

Nano

Well-known member
mbg42 said:
It is interesting to see tables like these but I dont know how valid this information is at predicting future outcomes.
6 of those teams have changed their manager and with that change comes a change in style and fortune. Us and West Brom are the biggest examples of this but I think also Norwich will be as time goes on as they will probably become more solid at the back.
Our home defeat came against Blackburn with Leo in charge, I don't even think Blackburn should be in this table as they are done and drifting away.
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I agree. The championship is a form league. Anyone can beat anyone and it mostly depends what sort of run you are on at the time.

As for Blackburn, I don't think they will be up there at the end of the season but if they win at home today against bottom of the league Wigan then they'll be 5th so they can't be discounted. Their form could easily switch back in a positive direction.
 
Marvanelli

Marvanelli

Well-known member
I agree with above, Blackburn don't have a sniff of finishing top 6.

Even earlier into the season when they were flying, they were winning games very luckily. They were often getting outplayed but scraping the wins. Obviously that isn't sustainable and this is why it's caught up on them. They've lost 13 games. That's more than Rotherham!

I think Burnley are obviously gone. They're cakewalked the league and fair play to them. Sheff Utd pretty much has 2nd sewn up (unless they have an almighty collapse which includes an amazing run by one of the chasing pack - most likely us or West Brom.

Then play offs are 4 from us, Norwich, Watford, West Brom and Luton. I think it'll be Luton who miss out.

I feel like currently, it's us and West Brom who have the best chance of finishing top 4. Both of us are flying, scoring goals and looking like real threats in every game. Watford look like they're stumbling, whilst Rob Edwards has Luton looking very good.
 
muniz

muniz

Well-known member
Ravs said:
I wouldn’t count Watford out of playoff mix just yet.
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they will drop out but thats becasue their next 4 games is pretty harsh, but the run in after that should be good enough for the next manager to put a decent run together to crash the party again
 
JM14

JM14

Well-known member
West Brom are the danger, their form is just as good if not better than us. With that squad they should easily be top 2.

Think we can forget catching Sheffield United, we have to go to them away as well as WBA. We have a very strong chance for the playoffs however
 
Diego

Diego

Well-known member
JM14 said:
West Brom are the danger, their form is just as good if not better than us. With that squad they should easily be top 2.

Think we can forget catching Sheffield United, we have to go to them away as well as WBA. We have a very strong chance for the playoffs however
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If we beat Cardiff and then go on to beat Sheffield United I think it’s absolutely on to be honest. Not throwing in the towel yet, would rather look above than below. Keeps us firing on all cylinders
 
indeedido

indeedido

Well-known member
I think the mini league (of 10 this season which tells you something) is quite informative.
I think 2nd is an outside chance for us, but nobody else. I think Sheff U will stumble over the line, just.
I am confident we will make 3rd and West Brom 4th.
It really is almost any 2 from the other 6 for me for 5th and 6th, you can make a case for - or against - any of them.
Watford and Norwich should have the ability, but Millwall have The Den, Blackburn have the ability to win enough matches.
You'd think both Sunderland and Luton will be found out, but will they be?

It's an interesting race and exciting for us.
 
VestasBoro

VestasBoro

Well-known member
Burnley are up as champions.
Sheff Utd will almost certainly go up 2nd
We're flying and if we carry on at this rate, we're the team everyone will fear but i cant help but look at WBA and Watford.
Luton will drop, i think anyone from Birmingham up could win 2,3 games and all of a sudden feel they have an outside chance of the play offs as there is a lot of football still to play and theres nothing to say our form will continue, nor that of WBA. Sunderland will miss Stewart, Watmore could help Millwall and that game in hand is key if they win that they'll fancy themselves. It's a tight league but for once we look very good and i just think if we had Carrick come in 2,3 weeks earlier who knows what the division might look like. Goal difference is massive, Millwall and Blackburn on same games/points but the GD is huge same for like Swansea, a point behind with a game in hand, but better GD...Norwich could match Watford if they win that game in hand because they've got a better GIH. Wonderful division, but i cant wait to get out.
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BoroMart

BoroMart

Well-known member
JM14 said:
West Brom are the danger, their form is just as good if not better than us. With that squad they should easily be top 2.

Think we can forget catching Sheffield United, we have to go to them away as well as WBA. We have a very strong chance for the playoffs however
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Maybe, although as already highlighted that form was largely against the poor teams, 8 of their 10 recent wins are against bottom half sides. They’ve won 2 drawn 1 and lost one against promotion rivals under the new manager. They need to improve on that to make headway. That’s the point of this table to show form and difficulty in those 6-pointers which will largely dictate the 2nd to 6th positions.

For comparison 5 of our 10 wins are against top half sides, 15 points from 7 6-point games under Carrick. Impressive stuff..but also means we have an easier run in of bottom half teams, a double whammy for our play off challengers
 
JM14

JM14

Well-known member
Diego said:
If we beat Cardiff and then go on to beat Sheffield United I think it’s absolutely on to be honest. Not throwing in the towel yet, would rather look above than below. Keeps us firing on all cylinders
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I just can’t see it. Despite not looking great their recent form is fairly similar to ours. It’s 10 points and they have a game in hand as well, they are a top side and I just don’t see them dropping too many points.

We would have to win every game we have left and that includes Sheffield Utd away, WBA away, Luton away. No chance we don’t drop any points in those games
 
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