Next PM is a 2 horse race, but who will win ?

Poor old BoJo eh. All the scheming to get the PM job and he ends up being absolutely useless.
The 2 horse race to replace him will be between 2 conservatives as I just can't see him lasting long, he'll just be looking for a way of slithering off. We're going to be back in the hand of a few hundred thousand conservative party members re: his replacement.:sick:
 
Labour need to gain 121 seats to have a majority of 1. TBH it's a bit like hoping Boro have a reasonable chance of winning the Premier League in 2024.
That is as maybe, but a lot of their gains were brexit gains pure and simple. If they deliver a good deal, who knows, but any deal will be claimed as a good deal only time will tell if it is.
The red wall will return to Starmer as will a few of the midlands and southern areas where the tories have majoritys capable of being turned over. I genuinely have more faith in this happening. I keep saying the centre ground determines most elections, win that (in the tories case, lose that) and the dominoes fall into place.

I think the pandemic has ruined any hope the tories had of getting brexit done, getting the trade deals flowing and building confidence in the economy post brexit as they envisaged. I think that while taxes will inevitably increase, they will want to manage the recovery with a mixture of seemingly mild taxation rises across all groups with increased borrowing at incredibly low rates, even negative rates, trying not to unsettle as many people as possible. In doing so the debt will still be very very high come 2024, knowing that were Labour to win they would have less scope to renationalise and rebalance the gaps in the haves and have nots unless they went for high taxation from the rich, businesses and the self employed and blue and white collar workers alike, hoping that allows them a window back in, come 2029 after a period of high taxation.

Just my thoughts. Goodness knows what will happen in reality, this virus will have more control than most for the foreseeable.
 
Fair enough Col. For what it's worth I'd love a Boro Premier League title challenge in 2024. ;)

I just don't see confidence in the economy, or the level of national debt being something that influences voters all that much. Or at least not the specific voters that Labour need to try and convince. The big issues will more likely be stuff like Priti Patels latest mad rambling on asylum seekers.

knowing that were Labour to win they would have less scope to renationalise and rebalance the gaps in the haves and have nots unless they went for high taxation from the rich, businesses and the self employed and blue and white collar workers alike

There's only about 30 Labour MPs now that support nationalising industries, re-balancing the economy and increasing taxes anyway. Half of them are 70 odd. Even in the unlikely event Labour gain the 130 odd seats they need there still won't be any sort of parliamentary majority for policies like that.
 
Would not be surprised to see Hunt back in the race. Dropped out of the cabinet after losing the last leadership battle, probably/possibly seeing the impending sh.*t show about to unfold with Brexit, didn't want anything to do with it. Just kept himself nicely in the background, popping up here and there, not doing anything to upset anyone in the party. Would he not be seen as a "safe Tory option" if he decided to stand again?
 
Would not be surprised to see Hunt back in the race. Dropped out of the cabinet after losing the last leadership battle, probably/possibly seeing the impending sh.*t show about to unfold with Brexit, didn't want anything to do with it. Just kept himself nicely in the background, popping up here and there, not doing anything to upset anyone in the party. Would he not be seen as a "safe Tory option" if he decided to stand again?
Not sure that Hunt, seen as pro EU (or, at least he campaigned to remain) and supported a second referendum......and then changed his mind would get too much support from fellow tories.
 
Rishi would give Keir much more of a run for his money, this is why the Tories will ditch BJ as they did with TM and IDS. Labour have never learnt this lesson and persevere with an unpopular leader (Foot, Kinnock, Milliband and Corbyn) under the misconception that the great unwashed will see the error of their ways!
 
The tory party is riddled with closet racists, although many in the party will be relieved his not a Muslim I can see his heritage being a issue with many of the blue rinse brigade .
Did he even go the the "right school" ?
Hes killed most of the blue rinse brigade
 
Fair enough Col. For what it's worth I'd love a Boro Premier League title challenge in 2024. ;)

I just don't see confidence in the economy, or the level of national debt being something that influences voters all that much. Or at least not the specific voters that Labour need to try and convince. The big issues will more likely be stuff like Priti Patels latest mad rambling on asylum seekers.



There's only about 30 Labour MPs now that support nationalising industries, re-balancing the economy and increasing taxes anyway. Half of them are 70 odd. Even in the unlikely event Labour gain the 130 odd seats they need there still won't be any sort of parliamentary majority for policies like that.

A few musings of mine in reply. Firstly, Mr Gibson has been tasked with our Premier League challenge, in order to do that we as fans need to get behind him and get behind Borexit by 2023 😉

The economy and national debt will have a massive influence on how people vote imho. These are the very things that determine public sector spending on the NHS, Police and other emergency services. It will influence mortgage rates, consumer confidence and spending, job security, job development, education etc as I know you will appreciate. I firmly believe we will likely see a significant bounce back of the economy by around the middle of next year. Brexit will either be delivered via a trade deal (i expect this) or WTO tariffs will be bedding in and disruption likely limited by then. (all opinion & speculation on my part, I understand). I base that in part, on the belief that a vaccine will have began roll out to the vulnerable and delivered to all before winter 2021 🤞. By the time an election comes along, I doubt the landscape will be quite so bleak as it appears at first glance.

I think If people feel their jobs will be more secure, feel policies in Labours manifesto will offer them some benefits to improve their lives, create opportunity for those without work, offer a better improved version of society and our way of life (whilst appearing affordable, realistic and most of all deliverable. Labour need to make their offer plausible and fully costed) I am sure Labour can regain power. There needs to be something for the young, something for families, for the old, those both in and out of work, for the public services and crucially for business leaders too. Starmer is gaining trust as fast as all in Government are haemorrhaging it. Four years is a long way off, but oddly, the older I become, the faster time flies 🙁

The rebalancing of the economy needs to be undertaken slowly but surely. People do not like lots of change all at once, some fear it. By a slower pace of change I think people will accept it, see the benefits, fairness and equality. Some businessman like your Dyson and Branson types may sail off, but there are always others happy to fill the void they leave and rise to the challenge of filling the gaps. Re—nationalisation, if handled well, should reduce prices, secure employment and create income for the treasury. I think handled slowly and in piecemeal, it would more likely be accepted and help support and improve our manufacturing base (albeit from a low starting point). There would be lots more Labour MP’s that come in if power is regained, crucially they would be coming in on the back of pledging support to the manifesto. My old dad always used to say softly, softly, catchy monkey 👍 Then again, him having been a zookeeper, I suppose he would 🙈
 
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