Not according to a poll which was done when this was first mooted - from memory it said Reform could lose around 2%.
Labour were set to lose 3%.
I think another poll has also been done since saying Labour could lose more.
Polls like this are notoriously difficult tho - too many ‘ifs and buts’ in the questions.
Broader point - some on the left do drift ‘right’ when they aren’t heard.
They will find a home in the new party.
So the party will have 5%, or are they banking on taking some Greens, Lib Dems and Tories too? This will still leave it as a Reform v Labour battle? If Labour's vote gets split then it won't even be a contest.
For reform to lose, to Corbyn, it would need to be actual voters who voted last time, but how many extra would now come out and vote for the right to prevent Corbyn? My guess is a lot, the right hate the guy more than anyone.
I'll have a look at these polls later, but it's too early days I think.
Those on the left are heard, with the greens, and Labour is seemingly doing what they can, within a budget, with high debt, with predicted crap growth, so not sure what people were expecting after a year? People saying Labour have been like 14 years of the Tories is laughable, and the fact they try that on says a lot about them.
The main folk who drift right are previous generations (before Millennials), who shifted right as they got more cash in their pockets. Millennials and others after are drifting further left over time, problem is they're massively outnumbered.
The one who does least for the left is the one who loses power to the right, or can't win it back. This will not win it back after it means Labour lose to Reform/ Tories. Starmer has already done, and will do more for the left of anyone on any side, since when Blair and Brown were in control, as he knew how to win, and actually won, and the left just won't admit it.
No point having a home, if it's permanently on the losing side, which it will be in FPTP.