Latest estimate for the ‘peak’ has moved

[1finny]

Early June for peak death rate
It’s going to be a long haul

 

[spanishman]

People are moving mountains trying to sort this out.

 

[BlindBoyGrunt]

Apparently that's good news because a later, lower peak means fewer deaths.

 

[SmallTown]

Yeah. It's going to make it tougher for us all and the economy but yeah keeping the peak lower but for longer should help spread out the strain on the NHS and keep more people alive

 

[1finny]

Yeah. It's going to make it tougher for us all and the economy but yeah keeping the peak lower but for longer should help spread out the strain on the NHS and keep more people alive

I don’t think the peak is being managed. The forecast death rate is just rising.

 

[bear66]

People are moving mountains trying to sort this out.

I find mountains hill areas.

 

[SmallTown]

poo

 

[bear66]

I don’t think the peak is being managed. The forecast death rate is just rising.

Any link to this story?

 

[1finny]

Any link to this story?

Afraid not Bear - It is from those tasked with dealing with funerals

 

[uncle_rico]

There's people all over facebook who seem to think that the worst is over and things will be back to normal in a week or two.

 

[changingman]

And therein lies the problem with social media. Hope they provided robust, fact-checked sources :rolleyes:

 

[sadgit]

And therein lies the problem with social media. Hope they provided robust, fact-checked sources :rolleyes:

of course.. Twitter said so..

 

[1finny]

There's people all over facebook who seem to think that the worst is over and things will be back to normal in a week or two.

In fairness the PM, when he put lockdown in place referred to ‘3 weeks’
We’ve done a week - almost job done!!

 

[sadgit]

and Mr Trump says America will be back to normal by Easter.. I cannot wait for my eggs!

 

[bear66]

Afraid not Bear - It is from those tasked with dealing with funerals

Ok. Thanks. It looks like Italy might be peaking and they're about two weeks ahead of us. Long way to go from 600 deaths a day to normality though.

 

[Erimus74]

And therein lies the problem with social media. Hope they provided robust, fact-checked sources :rolleyes:

Yep social media, I heard from someone, who overheard from someone else,

 

[boromike85]

The number of deaths can't be discerned from knowing when the peak is. The flatter the curve, the later the peak. I assume the peak for funerals and the peak that is referred to in reports is different. Peak will just mean maximum that the NHS can cope with in general reports. Demand for services above the peak will mean more deaths. It doesn't sound like a good situation whatever happens but more data is needed to know whether the timing of the peak is better or worse.

 

[Low_Key]

A guy from Imperial College London is reporting that the peak could be next Sunday:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8158559/Could-UK-coronavirus-deaths-lower-feared.html

The data for the study was taken from the European Centre for Disease Control website on Tuesday March 24

The paper is data driven

 

[BobUpnDown]

It will be interesting to see if the upward curve of cases starts to level off & - hopefully fall in the next 7-10 days...

sooner we get a vaccine the better... I trust the Norwegians are busy at that right now...

 

[afcb_acklam]

if you drink hot tea you'll be fine ;-)