It’s looking like a potential landslide victory for Joe Biden

Colin Warnek said:
I think people are going to be very surprised once again by Trump. Can't see anything but a Trump win.
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Why?

His poll numbers are terrible, his debate performance was awful and he’s taken responsibility for the failure of tens of millions of Americans being left facing bankruptcy through pulling out of stimulus talks.

Apart from enthusiasm in his base there’s nothing that suggests a Trump victory.

The only way he wins this is mass cheating involving Republican states throwing out mail-in ballots.
 
I’m afraid I’m worried that somehow the bitterness and bile that he engenders will get him over the line.

If he loses it looks like he won’t transition without a fight. Things could get very nasty indeed.
 
Pog said:
Why?

His poll numbers are terrible, his debate performance was awful and he’s taken responsibility for the failure of tens of millions of Americans being left facing bankruptcy through pulling out of stimulus talks.

Apart from enthusiasm in his base there’s nothing that suggests a Trump victory.

The only way he wins this is mass cheating involving Republican states throwing out mail-in ballots.
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I can’t see the polls being reliable - just as they were not before he beat Hilary.

Biden’s debate was equally as poor - Trump dragged him down to his level really.

I think he has played a blinder really during Covid-19 - he has managed to convince Americans he is the one who will deliver the least lockdowns and combat Chinese/Russian influence despite doing precisely neither of those things in actual fact. I think Biden is about as viable an alternative for Americans as Hilary.

If an AOC or a Kamala Harris was against Trump - a genuine tour de force - then different story I think. But who is buying Biden?
 
CW, if you don't see the polls being reliable, what evidence are you basing your opinion on? Polls are not only the best metric we can use, they are the only metric.
 
Colin Warnek said:
I can’t see the polls being reliable - just as they were not before he beat Hilary.
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I don't think that's a realistic comparison.
In 2016, the biggest lead HC had in any national poll from this point onward was 7%, and in most polls it was less than 5%.
Biden's mean lead in the recent polls is 9%, with a maximum lead of 16%. That's probably a statistical freak, as was HC's 7%.

That said, it comes down to key states, rather than the % of vote overall which, of course, HC won in 2016. Biden does seem to be ahead in most of these, even those in which Trump performed strongly last time.
 
US polls are often designed to discourage voters into thinking one party or another has a large margin - the so called "suppression polls". A recent CNN poll over sampled Democrats by 10% and naturally had Biden with a large margin of victory. Plus Trump voters don't talk to pollsters or lie about their allegiance. Finally, because the largest states are effectively single party governments (e.g. California and New York) but have only a fixed number of electoral college votes, the Democrats can appear to have a significant margin but the electoral college is closer. Polls are supposed to take this into account but if the sample size isn't great enough the results are skewed.

Both campaigns have internal polling. Trumps campaign claims their polling looks good in the states they need to win. They would say that I suppose.

So check campaign behaviour to get an indication. Biden's campaign recently switched policy on door to door calling in certain key battleground states. And Biden is doing a lot more traveling than he did the last few months. It's a clear admission they think the race is closer than some polls would indicate.

Most commentators I've listened to think that there are few people who are on the fence with Trump - i.e. not many undecided voters - and that who wins or loses will be based on whether they get their vote out. Recent polling had 67% of Democrats and 20+% Republicans saying they would not go to a polling station to vote - (hence the emphasis on mail in ballots). The courts are full of cases of Democrat states fighting to change electoral law on mail in balloting to allow ballot harvesting or similar etc. (200+ cases).

For this reason both campaigns appear to think there will be no definite answer on November 3rd/4th. Most media outlets say they will refuse to announce a winner, and Twitter and Facebook have stated they will not allow anyone to post claiming the election win on the the day. The Democrats have hired 800 lawyers for the legal maelstrom that will develop. Hilary Clinton suggested Biden shouldn't accept defeat under any circumstances and Trump side refuses to say whether they'll accept the result.

There's a reason the Republicans want the 9th Supreme Court position filled ASAP and it has nothing to do with Rowe v Wade. Unless one side or the other gains an absolute landslide on the day there is going to be an unholy mess.
 
br14 said:
US polls are often designed to discourage voters into thinking one party or another has a large margin - the so called "suppression polls". A recent CNN poll over sampled Democrats by 10% and naturally had Biden with a large margin of victory. Plus Trump voters don't talk to pollsters or lie about their allegiance. Finally, because the largest states are effectively single party governments (e.g. California and New York) but have only a fixed number of electoral college votes, the Democrats can appear to have a significant margin but the electoral college is closer. Polls are supposed to take this into account but if the sample size isn't great enough the results are skewed.

Both campaigns have internal polling. Trumps campaign claims their polling looks good in the states they need to win. They would say that I suppose.

So check campaign behaviour to get an indication. Biden's campaign recently switched policy on door to door calling in certain key battleground states. And Biden is doing a lot more traveling than he did the last few months. It's a clear admission they think the race is closer than some polls would indicate.

Most commentators I've listened to think that there are few people who are on the fence with Trump - i.e. not many undecided voters - and that who wins or loses will be based on whether they get their vote out. Recent polling had 67% of Democrats and 20+% Republicans saying they would not go to a polling station to vote - (hence the emphasis on mail in ballots). The courts are full of cases of Democrat states fighting to change electoral law on mail in balloting to allow ballot harvesting or similar etc. (200+ cases).

For this reason both campaigns appear to think there will be no definite answer on November 3rd/4th. Most media outlets say they will refuse to announce a winner, and Twitter and Facebook have stated they will not allow anyone to post claiming the election win on the the day. The Democrats have hired 800 lawyers for the legal maelstrom that will develop. Hilary Clinton suggested Biden shouldn't accept defeat under any circumstances and Trump side refuses to say whether they'll accept the result.

There's a reason the Republicans want the 9th Supreme Court position filled ASAP and it has nothing to do with Rowe v Wade. Unless one side or the other gains an absolute landslide on the day there is going to be an unholy mess.
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"Ballot harvesting" is totally legal in the UK. I can take my elderly relatives postal vote to a post box. What a strange system the USA adopts.
 
bear66 said:
"Ballot harvesting" is totally legal in the UK
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"Ballot harvesting" as I understand it, is not helping your Granny post her ballot, but rather is the mass collection of ballots by calling on people at their homes and collecting their ballots. It opens up opportunities for fraud. For example, you could ask the person how they voted when you collected the ballot. If they agreed to answer, you could then refuse to collect the ballot, or you could take the ballot and stuff it in a bin. According to news reports there are cases in play at the moment so I assume it's illegal in some states.

Electoral law is different state by state. And individual states run the polling in their states.
 
I watched a large part of Meet The Press on NBC this morning. Senators who are up for re-election are starting to distance themselves from him. In particular Susan Collins (ME) and Martha McSally (AZ). A number of others would just not answer the question about why they had backed Trump in the past. Ted Cruz said he could foresee a Biden Harris landslide, taking the Senate as well as the presidency.
 
NYboro said:
I watched a large part of Meet The Press on NBC this morning. Senators who are up for re-election are starting to distance themselves from him. In particular Susan Collins (ME) and Martha McSally (AZ). A number of others would just not answer the question about why they had backed Trump in the past. Ted Cruz said he could foresee a Biden Harris landslide, taking the Senate as well as the presidency.
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Cruz also said that more republicans than democrats would be happy to come out and vote in Covid-19 times. Turnout could still have a major influence.
 
br14 said:
"Ballot harvesting" as I understand it, is not helping your Granny post her ballot, but rather is the mass collection of ballots by calling on people at their homes and collecting their ballots. It opens up opportunities for fraud. For example, you could ask the person how they voted when you collected the ballot. If they agreed to answer, you could then refuse to collect the ballot, or you could take the ballot and stuff it in a bin. According to news reports there are cases in play at the moment so I assume it's illegal in some states.

Electoral law is different state by state. And individual states run the polling in their states.
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Just had a check. It's legal in most states, relatives or carers in others; Texas it has to be the ballot holder.
 
Laughing said:
CW, if you don't see the polls being reliable, what evidence are you basing your opinion on? Polls are not only the best metric we can use, they are the only metric.
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Those who think polls are the only metric wouldn't have been prepared for Trump the first time, Brexit etc. Polls are generally a poor metric.
As stated above campaign activity tends to reveal more.
 
Colin Warnek said:
I can’t see the polls being reliable - just as they were not before he beat Hilary.

Biden’s debate was equally as poor - Trump dragged him down to his level really.

I think he has played a blinder really during Covid-19 - he has managed to convince Americans he is the one who will deliver the least lockdowns and combat Chinese/Russian influence despite doing precisely neither of those things in actual fact. I think Biden is about as viable an alternative for Americans as Hilary.

If an AOC or a Kamala Harris was against Trump - a genuine tour de force - then different story I think. But who is buying Biden?
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The polls were reliable within a 2% margin of error. There is no way with the current polls and a 2% margin of error that trump can win.

You think he has played a blinder with COVID? I wonder if you have any good friends stateside, I imagine not or you wouldn't be posting such nonsense?!
 
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