Lockdowns are over, that argument is done to death.
Unfortunately there are 5 million people on NHS waiting lists now as covid took precedent to everything else, I'm sure those 5 million are chuffed to pieces with that news.
Who are these millions still at high risk of covid deaths?
It's not an argument, it works, although you do and did *try to* argue it.
Now it's just basic restrictions, which aren't that bad at all, I'm not convinced we will be opening up more on the 21st mind, as case are exponential.
I didn't say millions at high risk, I said millions at risk, there's a big difference. Obviously, there's plenty left to infect, even in the UK, proven by the current rate of R, largely due to a more infectious strain, that has some immune escape.
Although if you count the rest of the world it's actually billions, although I suppose those don't count huh?
Less than half of the population is fully vaccinated, some of the most at risk can't get vaccinated (which is about 10% of over 80's I think).
Can you say for certain the below won't lead to more hospitalisations (note that's a log scale)? Who is going to treat them, you?
Then, this is how cases can still turn into a problem, even now 1 is first, then 2 lags that, then 3 lags that, then deaths lags that. Again, that's a log scale.
We're now on 7k cases, doubling every 9 days, if that continues by the 21st that's 20k cases, and then by the 30th that's 40k. Although after 21st R will probably go up as movements and interactions go up.
40k won't lead to the same deaths that it did before, certainly not, but it will still be significant, and can still cause problems for the NHS. It's not the time to think "it's over", although it pretty much would have been had BJ not flew a load of delta in with his trade deal attempts.
Still a good 10 days to see where we're at and where we're heading, and a fast uptake from the under 30's should help, albeit that won't kick in for a few weeks.