Herd immunity

SmallTown

SmallTown

Well-known member
I was thinking about this whilst out for my legally allowed jog yesterday.
If we can't find a vaccine, it's odd but at the end of next year after lurching in and out of various stages of lockdown we might actually think it could have been a good idea.

It's an extreme version of the Coventry conundrum, isn't it: Do we kill thousands and thousands of our own people, in order to protect lives in the future?

No government in the world would dare do it but it may turn it to be the best solution.
 
SmallTown said:
I was thinking about this whilst out for my legally allowed jog yesterday.
If we can't find a vaccine, it's odd but at the end of next year after lurching in and out of various stages of lockdown we might actually think it could have been a good idea.

It's an extreme version of the Coventry conundrum, isn't it: Do we kill thousands and thousands of our own people, in order to protect lives in the future?

No government in the world would dare do it but it may turn it to be the best solution.
Click to expand...
Decide it with a referendum of all over 70s and those with preexisting health conditions. Answers on a postcard for a Dom one liner.
 
Statistically her immunity may well turnn out to be the best strategy, but it is extremely dangerous and rightly or wrongly it comes across as callous. Add to that you don't know if your decision was correct until it is all over

Also if isolation buys someone 6 months more to live, and you are at the end of life, I would guess most people would bite your hand off for those extra 6 months.

I think the mortality rate is just too high to use this as a strategy, not withstanding all the additional risk you bring.
 
Suppose you'd have to shield the vulnerable while the rest of the population got infected.

If the 'herd immunity' was the only option available I can't imagine you'd just let it rip through the population, you'd try and control it to protect the vulnerable and avoid the NHS being overrun. Which would take more time obviously.

In a way we'll probably end up inching our way towards herd immunity anyway while we wait for a vaccine. Some experts seem to think we'll see phases of restrictions being lifted and then lockdown measures put back in place when cases surge.
 
There are still differing views from experts regarding how fast herd immunity will develop.
I think buying time to reduce strain on health systems and allow for better investigation and understanding of the virus will lead to identification of treatments that help reduce the mortality rate anyway, before a vaccine becomes available.

Edit : Best course is probably a mix of all 4 - buy time, develop treatments, allow for slow development of herd immunity/resistence and develop a vaccine. I don’t think it has to be one course of action only.
 
Yeah, I guess the numbers dying seem big because we hear it each day. The fact is that it's still only 16000. (I think I read that) 50%+ of whom are over 80, with pre-existing conditions - so many would have died in the fairly near future anyway.
 
The simple fact of the matter is the majority of the world cannot stay locked down forever. I don't even think staying locked down until Autumn is sustainable.
I agree with the soft lockdown we have now don't get me wrong but I also know the government aren't going to continue to pay 80% of my wages for an indefinite period and they will have to open up again for people to go back to work otherwise what was the point in the job retention scheme in the first place.
 
If Johan Giesecke is right, we will already be well on the way ... particularly in the major cities like London. Not to herd immunity, but herd resistance (ie, we can catch it again but it becomes a less serious disease). He suggested that by May/June the virus will find transmission more difficult. The Swedes believe they are already beginning to see signs that it is happening in Stockholm.
 
I'd just like to point out I'm not advocating it, it's fundamentally abhorrent to me to deliberately let people die. I'm just saying that from a purely cold, statical point of view it may turn out to be the best response.

Herd resistance sounds good. Hopefully this will be compensation for living in by far the most deadly city in the UK at the moment
 
SmallTown - it depends how you look at it. I don't see it as 'deliberately letting people die', as I'm sure that attempts would be made to save every person. (More people would probably die than otherwise though - so I do see what you're saying) - but if a vaccine isn't forthcoming, then perhaps eventually it's inevitable that things will have to open up a bit?
 
The problem with herd immunity is that the fundamental basis of it is unproven. Resistance/immunity by individuals and individually varies from virus to virus, and there is no current basis of evidence to say one way or another with Covid 19. The best plan is undoubtedly to limit deaths and infection rates in the short term in the hope you can keep it at arms length.
It will be interesting to see the longer term outcome in countries like New Zealand and Taiwan where they have kept infections to a minimum. Will it work out better long term? Or have they just delayed the inevitable?
 
I'm no expert but you'd imagine that, once we've got through this first wave and come down the other side of the peak, we will still consider herd immunity as a longer-term solution once we've got our house in order and seen what's happened in other countries. We can't keep everyone under house arrest until the virus dies out entirely.

I think the mistake would have been to go in for herd immunity straight away (like Sweden have). That many deaths (plus some extremely unfortunate children) would have been unforgivable. At least this way we have tried to suppress the virus first and at least weigh up our options while we decide how to deal with it over the course of time. My only regret is that we didn't put the measures in place as soon as we saw what was happening in Italy.

The 'herd immunity' strategy isn't going anywhere though is it? We can revert to that at any point we like if it starts to look like it is the only way out.
 
Point of order, herd immunity was not a goal or strategy in Sweden but, as Giesecke put it, a by-product. It's not like they did nothing at all .... life there is certainly not normal.
 
borolad259 said:
Point of order, herd immunity was not a goal or strategy in Sweden but, as Giesecke put it, a by-product. It's not like they did nothing at all .... life there is certainly not normal.
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What's happening in Belarus? I haven't heard their figures, but aren't they actually carrying on as normal?
 
Herd Immunity is surely only possible through vaccination isn’t it? As someone said above there may be varying degrees of resistance within the community as things stand but nothing is known on immunity. We desperately need to understand what is exactly going on and why

For me the key still is to test and keep testing those with symptoms, develop tests where possible to check who may have antibodies, strive for a vaccine. Some elements must be understood and will come with time, we need to know why:
a) some people are asymptomatic.
b) some only get mild symptoms.
c) some get very Ill and why and how they pull through
d) why exactly those that have died did so.
e) why men and BME and certain other groups are more susceptible etc

To allow anyone to die is surely no way to go. Those that are perhaps younger and would sacrifice the elderly for the good of the economy or jobs now need to understand that the boot might well be on the other foot In time as you age, would you just accept being cast to the wolves when you are older If a similar problem occured, I would bet heavily you wouldn’t be happy.
 
My very basic understanding given to me from a friend of mine who used to be a cancer research doctor is that you’d likely be immune to the same strain but may be vulnerable to any strain or mutation, a vaccine would work at a embedded level therefore counteract any strains or mutations, it’s to do with things way beyond my realm of understanding.

Basically, herd immunity will probably work a vaccine would certainly work.
 
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