Randy
Well-known member
Not all those excess deaths are covid bear. You know this. A fair amount probably are, but no way to be sure.
Herd Immunity
- Thread starter Randy
- Start date
bear66
Well-known member
bear66
Well-known member
Yes, they are mentioned as a cause. The vast majority as the primary cause, but some a contributory factor.
Redwurzel
Well-known member
I do get annoyed when posters do twist statements its appears in some cases to criticise others as their prime motivation. There will always difference of opinions, and at times that makes the board interesting, but it feels like criticism is the major driving force with some posters.
For example the majority of the population on here, know the NHS Flu Vaccine was not available, to significant general public till around 1999/2000. It was introduced by the NHS because people were dying of flu and or had been seriously ill with it. It was introduced for older members of the UK population because they were higher risk. I believe other vulnerable groups too. Possibly I may have made a mistake and assumed this was generally known when I first posted on this.
Unfortunately I haven't got a nice graph to post, but the BBC has shown stats on TV to show how deaths from flu declined significantly after 2000, but before 2000 it was serious cause of death particularly in the winter months. Killing more in (its winter months) than Covid19 is currently killing in the UK (20? per day). OK Covid is currently suppressed by the effects of a long lock down and Covid has the potential to kill many thousands more in the UK if we dropped all precautions. The fact that Flu ws a major killer in the not too distant past seems to over looked by those in power and some of the media. If it was not major killer the NHS would not spend tens of millions on an annual vaccine.
I was fully aware there was no vaccine for Spanish Flu (SF) and never stated there was one. It is believed by medical experts it declined because of herd immunity of around 30% in this country and because the virus mutated, both occurred over a roughly 18/24 month period (source Wikipedia on Spanish Flu) . SF is not the same as Covid19 but it was our last pandemic. It rapidly spread like Covid19, killing about 0.4% of the UK population (Wikipedia quotes 250,000 in the UK). It also came in waves with the second wave bigger than first also like Covid, it spread in a similar way to Covid too, easily and commonly through water droplets. There were no National UK lockdowns then or Test and Trace to reduce spread, but deaths were 0.4% of the population. WW1 encouraged SF, but there is much more international travel now to encourage Covid today. I do think we can learn something today by looking at SF's life cycle. For example the virus died off with 70% of the UK population never having it or showing signs of having it.
However the vaccines in 2021 should be a game changer and to me should be getting us much closer to herd immunity. I do agree we should see herd immunity in the over 80s first and NHS staff , because they generally have had 2 vaccines and you need 2 to be fully effective with most vaccines. Remember though younger people have had more infections many of them never recorded because the symptoms were not recognised and/or reported or even showing, thus building some unseen immunity . I haven't the stats but it appears deaths amongst the elderly has dropped dramatically which COULD point to some herd immunity in that group in recent weeks. I do feel sorry for those that have died and their families (including mine for one case) but also feel for those badly affected by 3 lockdowns. I will defend the lockdowns so far because they have give us some time to develop and manufacture vaccines and protected the NHS in the peak infection times. If we had no vaccine it may have been a bit different as lock downs tend to hold the virus not eradicate it.
Ref: Why so many elderly died in Care Homes in the first wave? there will be multitude reasons, but one could be poor mental health. Being suddenly cut off from relatives and friends must have been emotionally devastating for many. Today the resident of a care home is older than ever (my guess is around 90 years old) and probably frailer than ever. I understand why the residents were cut off, but it does not stop the devastation and when the national media and politicians act as though we are under the threat of invasion it just added more extremely negative tension. It also has been said but its gone quiet on this - was the fact that elderly people were moved from hospitals very quickly into care homes without testing in some cases, in late March 2020. This was to free up hospitals for potential new Covid patients. Test facilities were slow and limited at that time and the pressure was on to move people out very quickly. The high care home deaths in the first wave would have contributed to the stats showing a general high death rate in the UK population in say April 2020. This size/rate of movement to care homes has not reoccurred and when it does happen, testing is much quicker, stricter and more extensive of those moved into care homes.
For example the majority of the population on here, know the NHS Flu Vaccine was not available, to significant general public till around 1999/2000. It was introduced by the NHS because people were dying of flu and or had been seriously ill with it. It was introduced for older members of the UK population because they were higher risk. I believe other vulnerable groups too. Possibly I may have made a mistake and assumed this was generally known when I first posted on this.
Unfortunately I haven't got a nice graph to post, but the BBC has shown stats on TV to show how deaths from flu declined significantly after 2000, but before 2000 it was serious cause of death particularly in the winter months. Killing more in (its winter months) than Covid19 is currently killing in the UK (20? per day). OK Covid is currently suppressed by the effects of a long lock down and Covid has the potential to kill many thousands more in the UK if we dropped all precautions. The fact that Flu ws a major killer in the not too distant past seems to over looked by those in power and some of the media. If it was not major killer the NHS would not spend tens of millions on an annual vaccine.
I was fully aware there was no vaccine for Spanish Flu (SF) and never stated there was one. It is believed by medical experts it declined because of herd immunity of around 30% in this country and because the virus mutated, both occurred over a roughly 18/24 month period (source Wikipedia on Spanish Flu) . SF is not the same as Covid19 but it was our last pandemic. It rapidly spread like Covid19, killing about 0.4% of the UK population (Wikipedia quotes 250,000 in the UK). It also came in waves with the second wave bigger than first also like Covid, it spread in a similar way to Covid too, easily and commonly through water droplets. There were no National UK lockdowns then or Test and Trace to reduce spread, but deaths were 0.4% of the population. WW1 encouraged SF, but there is much more international travel now to encourage Covid today. I do think we can learn something today by looking at SF's life cycle. For example the virus died off with 70% of the UK population never having it or showing signs of having it.
However the vaccines in 2021 should be a game changer and to me should be getting us much closer to herd immunity. I do agree we should see herd immunity in the over 80s first and NHS staff , because they generally have had 2 vaccines and you need 2 to be fully effective with most vaccines. Remember though younger people have had more infections many of them never recorded because the symptoms were not recognised and/or reported or even showing, thus building some unseen immunity . I haven't the stats but it appears deaths amongst the elderly has dropped dramatically which COULD point to some herd immunity in that group in recent weeks. I do feel sorry for those that have died and their families (including mine for one case) but also feel for those badly affected by 3 lockdowns. I will defend the lockdowns so far because they have give us some time to develop and manufacture vaccines and protected the NHS in the peak infection times. If we had no vaccine it may have been a bit different as lock downs tend to hold the virus not eradicate it.
Ref: Why so many elderly died in Care Homes in the first wave? there will be multitude reasons, but one could be poor mental health. Being suddenly cut off from relatives and friends must have been emotionally devastating for many. Today the resident of a care home is older than ever (my guess is around 90 years old) and probably frailer than ever. I understand why the residents were cut off, but it does not stop the devastation and when the national media and politicians act as though we are under the threat of invasion it just added more extremely negative tension. It also has been said but its gone quiet on this - was the fact that elderly people were moved from hospitals very quickly into care homes without testing in some cases, in late March 2020. This was to free up hospitals for potential new Covid patients. Test facilities were slow and limited at that time and the pressure was on to move people out very quickly. The high care home deaths in the first wave would have contributed to the stats showing a general high death rate in the UK population in say April 2020. This size/rate of movement to care homes has not reoccurred and when it does happen, testing is much quicker, stricter and more extensive of those moved into care homes.
Here’s all the vaccine facts
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