Herd Immunity - what %

Redwurzel

Redwurzel

Well-known member
We were told 60% last year for herd immunity

For Spanish Flu it was 30% which is a pretty well known as it happened

Now I am hearing 80% immunity is needed.

In the UK 52% are now vaccinated OK quite a few haven't had 21 days full impact period and not many have had 2 jabs, but it must be getting pretty hard for the Virus to spread from now on.

I assume of the 48% who have not had it - about 35% of those have had the virus (remember 70% do not know they have it that have had, included lots of young people). I base the 35% on the death figure 126,000 multiplied by 150 - chance of dying when you have it which represeerns about 35% of the adult population.

The means 17% of the UK Adult pop have had it and unvaccinated - add them to the 52% vaccinated and we reach 69% almost clear of the virus. There will be some with natural immunity which is an unknown figure but if we said 25%, that takes out another 7% at least of remaining at risk people. That leaves about 24% of the UK adult fully exposed to CoVid with a bias towards the under 55s as more of them are un vaccinated.

I have excluded all children which could be dangerous. (hardly any chidren have died of covid or seriously ill with it).

Very soon it must be hard for Covid19 to find fertile ground to spread in the UK. Care homes should give an early indication as all ther residents have had the 21 day period and I would expect all the staff too. Anyone know if there are cases still in care homes?

I have asummed you can't get Covid twice (if people were getting covid twice I think it would have been highlighted a lot in the news).

I know there are some people on here with more expertise than me - any opinions on the point of herd immunity?
 
That sounds reasonable and really positive. Cases have been going up again recently though - not sure why? Maybe school kids?

But I suppose it's like a house of cards - if there is a mutation which renders the vaccine useless we are back to square one. Thankfully (touch wood) this hasn't happened and we don't know that it will.
 
Redwurzel said:
We were told 60% last year for herd immunity

For Spanish Flu it was 30% which is a pretty well known as it happened

Now I am hearing 80% immunity is needed.

In the UK 52% are now vaccinated OK quite a few haven't had 21 days full impact period and not many have had 2 jabs, but it must be getting pretty hard for the Virus to spread from now on.

I assume of the 48% who have not had it - about 35% of those have had the virus (remember 70% do not know they have it that have had, included lots of young people). I base the 35% on the death figure 126,000 multiplied by 150 - chance of dying when you have it which represeerns about 35% of the adult population.

The means 17% of the UK Adult pop have had it and unvaccinated - add them to the 52% vaccinated and we reach 69% almost clear of the virus. There will be some with natural immunity which is an unknown figure but if we said 25%, that takes out another 7% at least of remaining at risk people. That leaves about 24% of the UK adult fully exposed to CoVid with a bias towards the under 55s as more of them are un vaccinated.

I have excluded all children which could be dangerous. (hardly any chidren have died of covid or seriously ill with it).

Very soon it must be hard for Covid19 to find fertile ground to spread in the UK. Care homes should give an early indication as all ther residents have had the 21 day period and I would expect all the staff too. Anyone know if there are cases still in care homes?

I have asummed you can't get Covid twice (if people were getting covid twice I think it would have been highlighted a lot in the news).

I know there are some people on here with more expertise than me - any opinions on the point of herd immunity?
Click to expand...
That sounds good to me. GET THE PUBS OPEN NOW 😁
 
Redwurzel said:
We were told 60% last year for herd immunity

For Spanish Flu it was 30% which is a pretty well known as it happened

Now I am hearing 80% immunity is needed.

In the UK 52% are now vaccinated OK quite a few haven't had 21 days full impact period and not many have had 2 jabs, but it must be getting pretty hard for the Virus to spread from now on.

I assume of the 48% who have not had it - about 35% of those have had the virus (remember 70% do not know they have it that have had, included lots of young people). I base the 35% on the death figure 126,000 multiplied by 150 - chance of dying when you have it which represeerns about 35% of the adult population.
Click to expand...

Your assumptions are wrong because of all the people who have died with Covid, they have overwhelmingly been at least 85 years old. If you count the age group 75+, they represent >95% of deaths with Covid.
 
MolteniArcore said:
That sounds reasonable and really positive. Cases have been going up again recently though - not sure why? Maybe school kids?

But I suppose it's like a house of cards - if there is a mutation which renders the vaccine useless we are back to square one. Thankfully (touch wood) this hasn't happened and we don't know that it will.
Click to expand...

UKHSA data dashboard

Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UK
coronavirus.data.gov.uk coronavirus.data.gov.uk

They haven’t been going up, the rate of decline slowed when the kids went back, but the same day we nearly doubled the amount of testing, so the false poisitives alone would have an impact. But at no point did the seven day average increase.

Its all very good news. I think Redwurzel has a very good point and well made.
 
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No one knows. Even those very well qualified argue over it. There is so much we simply don't understand about the transmission of respiratory virus' (e.g. influenza).

Yet we think we can control it with masks (there are some instances where it may be useful, largely not), bizarre interventions like pointless signage and one-way systems, and the introduction of draconian restrictions like closing parks/play areas. What a sorry mess.

~£400 Bn spent, the biggest drop in economic output in 300 years, a massive NHS waiting list, increasingly authoritarian restrictions (on protests, holidays) in the name of 'public health'.

Largely self inflicted.
 
Redwurzel said:
We were told 60% last year for herd immunity

For Spanish Flu it was 30% which is a pretty well known as it happened

Now I am hearing 80% immunity is needed.

In the UK 52% are now vaccinated OK quite a few haven't had 21 days full impact period and not many have had 2 jabs, but it must be getting pretty hard for the Virus to spread from now on.

I assume of the 48% who have not had it - about 35% of those have had the virus (remember 70% do not know they have it that have had, included lots of young people). I base the 35% on the death figure 126,000 multiplied by 150 - chance of dying when you have it which represeerns about 35% of the adult population.

The means 17% of the UK Adult pop have had it and unvaccinated - add them to the 52% vaccinated and we reach 69% almost clear of the virus. There will be some with natural immunity which is an unknown figure but if we said 25%, that takes out another 7% at least of remaining at risk people. That leaves about 24% of the UK adult fully exposed to CoVid with a bias towards the under 55s as more of them are un vaccinated.

I have excluded all children which could be dangerous. (hardly any chidren have died of covid or seriously ill with it).

Very soon it must be hard for Covid19 to find fertile ground to spread in the UK. Care homes should give an early indication as all ther residents have had the 21 day period and I would expect all the staff too. Anyone know if there are cases still in care homes?

I have asummed you can't get Covid twice (if people were getting covid twice I think it would have been highlighted a lot in the news).

I know there are some people on here with more expertise than me - any opinions on the point of herd immunity?
Click to expand...
I’ve heard a few people say they’ve had it more than once. It’s all BBC a bit of a moving target at the moment. No one realty knows how long the vaccines last. We might meed top ups every six months.. they might only last 3 months!!
 
newyddion said:
I’ve heard a few people say they’ve had it more than once. It’s all BBC a bit of a moving target at the moment. No one realty knows how long the vaccines last. We might meed top ups every six months.. they might only last 3 months!!
Click to expand...
I know someone who has had it twice. The second time he was on a ventilator in hospital. Thankfully he’s home now and doing better.
 
Manaus had estimated that 76% of the population had had covid-19 in the first wave from antibody surveys. The new Brazilian strain appears to have hit them as hard again.
Manaus
Screenshot_20210323-072816.jpg
 
Ref: older people - they have more likely died from it totally agree, but I would say younger people are more likley to have had it, because they are mixing more across the last 12 months. The young are in people facing jobs not the over 75s, many of which have been cocooned away.

Ref infection rates of say 35% - If we look at the Boro squad we know a decent % have had it, because they have been tested since the end of June. I would expect Championship professionals to make a higher than average effort to avoid it. I would not be surprised if the whole Rotherham squad have it.

Ref people having it twice - anyone got any official stats? If lots are getting it twice or more, the antibody argument is not working is it? and vaccines will give little protection?
The differing variants are not radically different, its all Covid 19. There is not a vaccine for each variant.

I hear the vaccines decliners are getting special phone calls to persuade them to take it - anyone had one?
 
Ah yes, the Manaus study......

I have seen the Science paper (ref. 2. in the lancet paper bear66 mentioned) retweeted by many many people, including very senior members of SAGE.

There are potential issues with it. The twitter thread below by Wes Pegden highlights, amongst others, the issue that the seroprevalence survey was not a random survey. It potentially overestimated the number of people withing the population having antibodies.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1336801382955933697

The other thing I was surprised about with Manaus is the complete lack of discussion about seasonality. Epidemics of influenza in the tropics often coincide with the rainy season (for reasons still not fully known).

Rainy season in Manaus? November/December through to May. When have the outbreaks been? In the rainy season. The US states have largely followed Hope-Simpson patterns.
 
Covid19 supposedly likes cold weather say below 10 degrees, in Brazil the average temp is 25 degrees so you would think it would struggle there.
 
Redwurzel said:
For Spanish Flu it was 30% which is a pretty well known as it happened
Click to expand...
I guess we have to understand the difference between the unaltered R rate of both viruses, before we can compare the two. If coronavirus lives longer on surfaces than Spanish Flu did, then it would have a much higher transmission rate.

Redwurzel said:
In the UK 52% are now vaccinated OK quite a few haven't had 21 days full impact period and not many have had 2 jabs, but it must be getting pretty hard for the Virus to spread from now on.
Click to expand...
My friend had the jab, 5 weeks later tested positive. You can still catch it even with the jab, one jab will stop you getting a bad dose, but 2 jabs are needed to really reduce transmissions to the levels needed to starve it of hosts.

Redwurzel said:
The means 17% of the UK Adult pop have had it and unvaccinated - add them to the 52% vaccinated and we reach 69% almost clear of the virus.
Click to expand...
That 17% are irrelevant if you can catch it more than once

Redwurzel said:
I have excluded all children which could be dangerous. (hardly any chidren have died of covid or seriously ill with it).
Click to expand...
They can still carry it and spread it

I think we are still 9-12 months before enough people are vaccinated to be able to reduce viable hosts and strangle it's transmissions. But that's nothing more than my opinion. We all want to get up and running as soon as we can, this year won't be a write off as much as last year but it'll 2022 before we have normality, probably after wave 5
 
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Redwurzel said:
Ref: older people - they have more likely died from it totally agree, but I would say younger people are more likley to have had it, because they are mixing more across the last 12 months. The young are in people facing jobs not the over 75s, many of which have been cocooned away.

Ref infection rates of say 35% - If we look at the Boro squad we know a decent % have had it, because they have been tested since the end of June. I would expect Championship professionals to make a higher than average effort to avoid it. I would not be surprised if the whole Rotherham squad have it.

Ref people having it twice - anyone got any official stats? If lots are getting it twice or more, the antibody argument is not working is it? and vaccines will give little protection?
The differing variants are not radically different, its all Covid 19. There is not a vaccine for each variant.

I hear the vaccines decliners are getting special phone calls to persuade them to take it - anyone had one?
Click to expand...

No idea about official stats for re-infection. Actual confirmed cases (symptomatic and positive test) and re-infection (symptomatic and positive test) are rare as I understand it and we have had millions and millions and millions of cases worldwide. We would be very much hearing about it from the fear mongers in chief in the 'twittersphere' and the media if it was at all common.

If you have been infected (confirmed) and had symptoms it is unlikely (not impossible) you will suffer much again (in the short to medium term). It is how out immune systems work. Antibodies are not the whole story, they are just a part of it. I strongly recommend following (or just viewing if not on twitter) the thread (and account) linked below. It is from a woman who worked on the Moderna vaccine.

It is one of the very best accounts commenting on the virus. Factual, without politics and conveys information very well. The vaccines cover all known variants atm well (decreased disease against all known variants).......

https://twitter.com/x/status/1373620970607546371
 
T_A_D said:
Ah yes, the Manaus study......

I have seen the Science paper (ref. 2. in the lancet paper bear66 mentioned) retweeted by many many people, including very senior members of SAGE.

There are potential issues with it. The twitter thread below by Wes Pegden highlights, amongst others, the issue that the seroprevalence survey was not a random survey. It potentially overestimated the number of people withing the population having antibodies.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1336801382955933697

The other thing I was surprised about with Manaus is the complete lack of discussion about seasonality. Epidemics of influenza in the tropics often coincide with the rainy season (for reasons still not fully known).

Rainy season in Manaus? November/December through to May. When have the outbreaks been? In the rainy season. The US states have largely followed Hope-Simpson patterns.
Click to expand...
But several leading epidemiologists, while acknowledging the study’s limitations, believe significant inaccuracies are unlikely.

“It’s possible that the modelling is wrong, and seroprevalence (the amount of antibodies measured in the blood serum as a marker of pathogen exposure, used to estimate the proportion of the population that has been infected) in people is actually lower, ” says William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard. “But I don’t think it’s possible that they were that much lower.”

Applying the expected fatality rate of covid-19 in Manaus with the study’s estimated 76% seroprevalence rate would also result in around the same amount of deaths that have been reported there, Hanage and others point out. “It’s likely that a large proportion of the population has been infected,” concludes Deepti Gurdasani, an epidemiologist at Queen Mary University of London.

Even the early Kent survey with the first 1000 cases had a 10-15% reinfection rate.

New mutations, reinfections.
 
Redwurzel said:
Covid19 supposedly likes cold weather say below 10 degrees, in Brazil the average temp is 25 degrees so you would think it would struggle there.
Click to expand...

Seasonality is not temperature.

Otherwise we wouldn't have flu in the tropics as it is always warm, but we do. Do we know why? Nope. Hope-Simpson wrote a book on this and it has hardly got a mention. And he is hardly a maverick, he showed shingles was the reactivation of chickenpox.
 
bear66 said:
But several leading epidemiologists, while acknowledging the study’s limitations, believe significant inaccuracies are unlikely.

“It’s possible that the modelling is wrong, and seroprevalence (the amount of antibodies measured in the blood serum as a marker of pathogen exposure, used to estimate the proportion of the population that has been infected) in people is actually lower, ” says William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard. “But I don’t think it’s possible that they were that much lower.”

Applying the expected fatality rate of covid-19 in Manaus with the study’s estimated 76% seroprevalence rate would also result in around the same amount of deaths that have been reported there, Hanage and others point out. “It’s likely that a large proportion of the population has been infected,” concludes Deepti Gurdasani, an epidemiologist at Queen Mary University of London.

Even the early Kent survey with the first 1000 cases had a 10-15% reinfection rate.

New mutations, reinfections.
Click to expand...

I'll not comment on Gurdasani......

Wes Pegden posted an update to the tweet above, see below.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1349924698885410818

A local epidemiologist noted that "free COVID testing was offered as an incentive for donation" Ahhhhh, so that's not going to skew a study is it? And this was in Science, a very top tier journal. And this incentive wasn't mentioned in the paper....... Hmmmmmm......

I used to read Hanage's stuff closely. Then he started tweeting pics of himself running in a mask. Each to their own but it suggests to me a lack of understanding of some fundamental chemistry, physics, and....... airflow.

If you have a link to the 10-15% reinfection rate I'd be interested.

And if you are interested and don't already follow/look at...... the accounts below are good for vaccine info. All very positive on the variants. They are to be expected it is what virus' do. We have never tracked and analysed one to this extent ever before.

And these variants are cropping up in all countries. Again its what the virus will do - Convergent evolution. Patrick Vallance explained this to the select committee recently. The same mutation will crop up in various countries. The UK does a ton of sequencing so it picks up all of these variants. They'll be in other countries which do much less. If this epidemic had occurred a hundred years ago we wouldn't have know about the variants. Now every tiny change is all over the news and twitter.



 
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