NYboro
Well-known member
How come you know so much?
Good article on the Russian Economy imploding
- Thread starter Lefty
- Start date
Muttley
Well-known member
How do you propose to negotiate with Putin?
Let him keep The Donbas and the Crimea? And you think that will be enough? He has lost a huge amount of troops and materiel. He can afford to lose them, up to a point. Because quite obviously he doesn't care about public opinion at home. The Russian people aren't stupid and nor are they isolated from the rest of the world like North Korea. They know what is going on, they just want their sons to come home safe and get on with their lives. They are not any different to you or I but they live under a regime where even holding up a blank piece of card in protest can get you arrested and interrogated.
At present any negotiation with Putin would be on his terms. We have to get to a point where it is on the terms that are acceptable to Ukraine. Perhaps let him keep Crimea (there is some historical legitimacy for that) but he should be made to leave The Donbas. There are interesting developments around Kherson. The first use of the US supplied HIMARS system has taken out the last road bridge across the Dnieper river and there are now thousands of Russian troops that will have to be supplied by ferries. The retaking of Kherson would perhaps cause the generals to think about stopping the war. I don't know but it looks to me as though this will extend into next year and that we will all be suffering from the problems associated with it. I just believe (and I am not hawkish at all) that he has to be stopped here and now.
Let him keep The Donbas and the Crimea? And you think that will be enough? He has lost a huge amount of troops and materiel. He can afford to lose them, up to a point. Because quite obviously he doesn't care about public opinion at home. The Russian people aren't stupid and nor are they isolated from the rest of the world like North Korea. They know what is going on, they just want their sons to come home safe and get on with their lives. They are not any different to you or I but they live under a regime where even holding up a blank piece of card in protest can get you arrested and interrogated.
At present any negotiation with Putin would be on his terms. We have to get to a point where it is on the terms that are acceptable to Ukraine. Perhaps let him keep Crimea (there is some historical legitimacy for that) but he should be made to leave The Donbas. There are interesting developments around Kherson. The first use of the US supplied HIMARS system has taken out the last road bridge across the Dnieper river and there are now thousands of Russian troops that will have to be supplied by ferries. The retaking of Kherson would perhaps cause the generals to think about stopping the war. I don't know but it looks to me as though this will extend into next year and that we will all be suffering from the problems associated with it. I just believe (and I am not hawkish at all) that he has to be stopped here and now.
Randy
Well-known member
Seems to be the general idea on here Ingelby.
Remove Putin from power? Agreed he shouldn't be in charge but forcibly removing him will do a lot more damage to the world than rising energy bills ever will. The Russian people removing him from power? Probably the best solution going forward but even that could cause bigger problems. The **** show that is the Iraq, Iran and the rise of ISIS after Sadamn was executed is a loose example of what could happen.
@Smoggle expect the Taiwan situation to escalate if Pelosi makes her trip to China.
InglebyUTB
Well-known member
It hasn’t even been tried, the UK and US have told the Ukrainians not to negotiate.
You seriously believe Putin is going to allow regime change? If his back is against the wall and he’s facing death that he wouldn’t press the button and take everyone down with him?
Your idea is absolute insanity of the highest order, John Bolton levels of crazy.
Everytime the world has negotiated, ignored or let things slide Putin has invaded a neighbour. When Ukraine has gone, where next?
If it’s NATO then that’s the quickest way to nuclear war.
I guarantee you Putin isn’t going to fire a nuclear weapon at the west as a result of sanctions, cyber warfare or helping Ukraine. Have a quick look at what their nuclear policy says and you’ll see they will go nuclear in the event of a significant threat to their nation, such as a major land invasion or a received nuclear strike.
So not nonsense really.
NYboro
Well-known member
The insanity is all yours. It is impossible to negotiate with Putin and expect him to stick to the deal.
Who is talking about forcing him from power? A western backed coup would be madness. I don’t think the people are looking to rise against him and his control over institutions means an inside coup would be unlikely unless his actions were to threaten his underlings, which isn’t the case now.
Let’s see about China, I think Xi has been temporarily checked but he’s been open about his Taiwan intentions.
Putin can’t just run into a room and press the big red button.
Redwurzel
Well-known member
The sanctions will hurt when Russia needs new spare parts, repairs, new updates for software etc, its going to be years opposed to months. The same for developing new energy sources in the West. It will happen and every new solar and wind farm will weaken Russia bit by bit.
Hopefully the Russian and Ukrainians will sit down eventually and knock out a compromise, as we did in Ireland.
Hopefully the Russian and Ukrainians will sit down eventually and knock out a compromise, as we did in Ireland.
WeeGord
Well-known member
Not at all; appeasement means Putin taking Transnistria, Georgia, Kazakhstan and attempting to take back the Baltics and perhaps even Poland, Czechia etc.
The moment he steps foot in NATO territory it very quickly escalates and becomes a gravely serious situation.
You don't stand up to a bully by letting him beat more and more people up while you stand by and then wipe the blood off his fists and feet.
It's a tough approach and it's having serious effects across the West economically but this is unfortunately the route we have to go down for some time yet. And that is Putins responsibility alone throug his thirst for recreating the USSR.
If we need to take a bloody nose along the way but the bully gets removed then that is the only choice we have.
Corcaigh_the_Cat
Well-known member
What about this country, economy in tatters and the working class are going to pay for it as energy bills soar but not as fast as the profits they're creating.
When it comes to the national interest is only a certain section of the population to be looked after, or aren't we part of the nation?
We're hammering Russia and at the same time our own people.
When it comes to the national interest is only a certain section of the population to be looked after, or aren't we part of the nation?
We're hammering Russia and at the same time our own people.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Great post.
I think the EU (and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere) is now geared up (or gearing up) and expecting this to last into winter now, and making preparations, it's going to be extremely rough for everyone (especially those in Eastern Ukraine), but it's also going to be extremely rough for Russia and it's troops.
If it lasts into spring next year then the Northern Hemisphere will have next to zero problem with it continuing on for another 6 months (if it means a better chance of Putin failing, and legging it), but won't want it lasting into another winter. By then I imagine there will be measures taken to limit oil and gas use, a lot better preparations than we have now, as we have more time. Putin then loses a lot of his bargaining chips/ blackmail.
The longer it goes on the more, and more the sanctions increase and bite, and the impact rises exponentially. Also the more time the world has to find alternate fuel sources which will completely cripple the Russian economy for decades to come, something will give.
The way I see it, the longer it goes on, the worse it gets for Russia, and the chance of them giving in increases. The big problem for everyone is this winter, but if we get through that then Putin will pretty much have to give up, or their troops will just give up.
Even if Ukraine gave up Donbas, the sanctions shouldn't and won't lift, so even if he "wins", he loses, and it would only be a matter of time before Ukraine took it back, probably along with Crimea.
You’re absolutely right. My personal opinion based on Putin’s previous actions is that letting Russia off the hook will create far bigger problems down the line, but that doesn’t make the current and coming situation palatable, far from it.
It's publicity, but it's awful publicity. It's one step up from taking a couple of weeks off to go on Love Island. It makes the pair of them look very shallow indeed. It's the sort of trick Johnson might have stooped to.
Muttley
Well-known member
Exactly the solution to a lot of those problems is in the hands of our own government. They could find a magic money tree when they needed the votes of the UDP or when their chums had an expensive spreadsheet for a Track and Trace system or for deals on unusable PPE to be made. Plenty of money. We could tax those energy companies reporting huge "windfall" profits. We could do all these things. We don't have to give up Ukraine in order to look after our own people properly.
Corcaigh_the_Cat
Well-known member
I'm in full agreement, re Putin, our government should step in to protect its people.
Randy
Well-known member
Which means the only option left to prevent any further bloodshed on both sides is negotiation. Yes, it'll upset American arms dealers, private security firms and the likes of Vogue etc who are making a fortune off of other people's death and misery but it's the only way forward.
No the only option is to get to a position where Ukraine can negotiate from a position of strength. If Zelensky and his government think that is now then fair enough, but they don’t. It’s more likely to be on the back of a significant push where Russian forces are around pre-invasion lines.
If Ukraine negotiate territory away, with the possible exception of Crimea, they are inviting a further attack down the line as has happened twice before, Putin has been honest about how he sees the world and his neighbours have been warning for years - I really think now is the time to listen to them.
Andy_W
Well-known member
I think it's different.
Everything he does is clearly for the good of his country, which I don't think has ever come under question since this all kicked off. I suppose it's raising awareness in areas it wouldn't normally?
It was seemingly just his wife doing the interview and they both did a few pics, all of it in Ukraine/ Kiev/ Presidential compound.
It's not just a cover pic, it's a bloody long article which I've just quickly skimmed.
Portrait Of Bravery: Ukraine’s First Lady, Olena Zelenska
“We’re looking forward to victory. We have no doubt we will prevail. And this is what keeps us going.”
BJ is clearly the polar opposite, only out for himself.
I doAlways question your own sources and opinions before making misinformed statements
My own source is from university of Yale economists . So they will be experts in their own field