Good article on the Russian Economy imploding

Excellent read. Hope the sanctions are as effective as his article implies.
 
TeessideCleveland said:
I'll she'd no tears for the dictator, but I'm not sure that it's successor will be too willing to give up The Donbas or Crimea
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The successor will probably have to, plus reparations, for the economic sanctions to be lifted. Maybe not Crimea if that is what the Crimean population want.
 
TeessideCleveland said:
I'll she'd no tears for the dictator, but I'm not sure that it's successor will be too willing to give up The Donbas or Crimea
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I think that they'd quietly withdraw, after initially pretending to support Putin's crazy foreign war which they would never afford to pay for.

This is where I'm perplexed by their move: they're obliterating infrastructure, killing civilians and of those who are alive, there's clearly a brain drain: what is the tax base which they could rebuild it with?

Average Russian incomes are already pitiful, surely they'd start to question why Ukraine would be rebuilt while they still live in such substandard places.
 
jeff_potato said:
I think that they'd quietly withdraw, after initially pretending to support Putin's crazy foreign war which they would never afford to pay for.

This is where I'm perplexed by their move: they're obliterating infrastructure, killing civilians and of those who are alive, there's clearly a brain drain: what is the tax base which they could rebuild it with?

Average Russian incomes are already pitiful, surely they'd start to question why Ukraine would be rebuilt while they still live in such substandard places.
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This may lead to a collapse the Russian economy never recovers from. It could lead to the demise of the kleptocrats and oligarchs and a more equal society in Russia, ironically.

Then again, the Russian people have an historic mentality where they kind of expect their leaders to oppress them.
 
The Russian Government unlike the UK Government has little debt.

The Chinese and Indians will buy Russian oil and gas all day long if its discounted say by 20% or more.

Eventually the Russian industries will grind to a halt to some extent but it takes years. Venezuela kept pumping oil for a good 10 years before US sanctions hit home and the oil industry there could no longer work efficiently. A bit like Cuba with 60 year old American cars still running.
 
Redwurzel said:
The Russian Government unlike the UK Government has little debt.

The Chinese and Indians will buy Russian oil and gas all day long if its discounted say by 20% or more.

Eventually the Russian industries will grind to a halt to some extent but it takes years. Venezuela kept pumping oil for a good 10 years before US sanctions hit home and the oil industry there could no longer work efficiently. A bit like Cuba with 60 year old American cars still running.
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Did you read the article?
 
Lefty said:
The successor will probably have to, plus reparations, for the economic sanctions to be lifted. Maybe not Crimea if that is what the Crimean population want.
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I think Russia should pay reparations , but I don’t think they will .

I personally want nothing to do with them again. They can go and have economic ties with all the rest of the non west sphere like they claim they will ( we will also have trade with the non western countries too, just not Russia). These ****. have been launching cyber attacks with their trolls and bots to try and destabilise europe and North America and no doubt will continue to do so when peace is finally reached . Putin is a cancer.

Hopefully Ukraine build a Berlin like wall around its borders
 
NYboro said:
Did you read the article?
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Somehow i just think this is just western rhetoric at its worst again. The Russians will live on potatoes if forced, although it's fair to say that the economic situation is negatively affecting the Russian military [if reports are to be believed] with food supplies starting to be rationed. The fact that the grain supply has maybe opened up gives rise to the hope that a full ceasefire could be in the offing before the winter takes hold.
 
I did not read the article, I have glanced through it now.

People always find ways around sanctions look at South Africa it was sanctioned for over 40 years and sanctions were not the main factor in change there were they?

The sanctions will probably work eventually but it will take years. Its wishful thinking to think Russia will collapse in the next 6 months etc.

I don't support Russia, their invasion of Ukraine is wrong, but people have to prepare for a long conflict. Russia is effectively a dictatorship and has been for a good while. it would not surprise me if most of the people there supported Putin, because they get heavy propaganda 24-7. They are probably told Ukraine is full of right wing nationalists who want to join up with the Western Powers and threaten Russia with imagery about WW2 and how some Ukrainians fought with the Germans (Nazis). The messages will be distortions but many ordinary Russians will be taken in to some degree.

I know before the conflict Russia had large financial reserves this information was provided by institutions in the West - most of Europe's gas has come from Russia for many years and a significant amount of its oil. They have an unbalanced economy as so much is dependent on oil and gas and some metals such as nickel and platinium. This paid for their imported manufactured goods and services such as software. The pipelines were put in before the Berlin Wall came down and then extended after 1990.
 
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/sanctions-are-hurting-west-more-russia-203784
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Sanctions Are Hurting the West More Than Russia​

July 24, 2022
by Alvaro Vargas Llosa
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While Russia continues to pay a heavy military price for its cruel invasion of Ukraine, things look different on the economic front.

Despite repeated assurances from President Biden and other Western leaders that “the toughest economic sanctions in history” would cripple Russia’s economy and starve its war machine, that hasn’t happened. Russia’s current account, which measures global trade in goods and services, was strong in the second quarter of this year when its trade surplus rose to a record $70.1 billion. The ruble, too, has exhibited remarkable resiliency, ranking as the strongest performing currency so far this year, rising to its highest level against the euro since 2015 and making major gains against the dollar.

What accounts for Putin’s bulging coffers? The simple answer: high commodity prices and Russia’s continued ability to export oil, gas, grain, and even gold to non-Western countries.

The economic picture isn’t as rosy for the countries sanctioning Russia. Europe is struggling to meet its energy needs, driving up inflation and forcing countries at the vanguard of the green movement to backpedal. Germany, for example, whose minister of economic affairs and climate action comes from the Green Party, was forced to reactivate seventeen coal-fired power plants it previously had shut down. President Biden, with inflation sitting at a forty-year high, recently begged Saudi Arabia’s leaders—a regime it had been shunning—to come to the rescue by pumping more crude to help bring down gas prices and ease the inflationary pressure high fuel prices are placing on other goods.

In short, it appears that the economic response to Russia’s unprovoked war seems to be taking a greater toll on the rest of the world than on Russia itself.

Western leaders should have learned by now to take two factors into account when placing sanctions on a dictator: the moral case and the likely social and economic consequences.

There was clearly tension between the two in this instance. The moral case called for isolating Russia’s economy as much as possible. But, given the existing supply and demand imbalances that became apparent as the world emerged from the pandemic—and rising inflation—the socioeconomic calculator should have pointed to a sanctions regime that would avoid exacerbating the problems (if that is even possible).

That’s not what happened. The combination of sanctions and war disrupted energy and grain supplies, creating an economic opportunity that Russia has exploited. Indeed, according to the Helsinki-based Center for Energy and Clean Air, Moscow earned $100 billion in revenue from oil, gas, and coal sales in the first three months of the war alone.

While the Biden administration was drawing down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to increase available supplies and lower gasoline prices—plunging America’s emergency reserve to its lowest level since the mid-1980s—Russia’s oil exports had bounced back to pre-war levels by May.

Europe, meanwhile, which imported 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia last year, is now facing the double-whammy of severe shortages due to dwindling Russian imports and higher inflation fueled in part by energy prices. This could lead to a long, cold winter when the demand for energy explodes at the same time Europe is set to stop importing seaborne petroleum from Russia, as a European Union (EU) regulation introduced in June requires. Things could get even worse if Russia decides to cut off natural gas exports to Europe through pipelines, which is temporarily allowed under the EU edict.

The big picture can be seen in the numbers. In February, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the Federal Reserve’s global commodity price index stood at 203; by the end of June, it was 227, a 12 percent increase. Instead of starving Russia’s war machine, commodity price increases have strengthened Russia’s finances.

The idea was for the West to help Ukraine win the war or at least make it extremely costly for Russia to continue its imperialist aggression. While militarily the jury is still out, economically Russia has not suffered by any stretch of the imagination.
 
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Nosmo-King said:
I heard a report totally different. Oil and gas prices helping them rouble increased in value v US Dollar so you pays your money and takes your choice!
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Yeah I read that too
Also Ukraine saying they're about to retake Kherson ,but Guardian said it didn't seem like that on the frontline - so who knows?
 
Heard this the other day and it seems quite apt:

‘If you lay all the economists down in a line around the world you still wouldn’t reach a consensus’
 
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