First weekly ONS snapshot of Covid-19 cases

[bear66]

The equivalent of 148000 estimated to have tested as positive over the last two weeks from ONS weekly snapshot testing. The link suggests 10000 per day, which is high for track and trace but not much higher than the official daily tested figures.

No difference found in age categories from 2 years to 70+ years old. (Schools going back on 1 June?)

Those in health care have higher rates of infection.

London R at 0.5. The rest of the country higher.

148000 infected

The link below suggests 200000 may have had it at any one time. That makes Vallance's figure of 4% having had it plausible.
Link

I hope there are questions on the implications of these figures at 5pm.

 

[Alvez_48]

Whats the official number for the past 2 weeks?

If it's like this after a long lockdown then during the peak the numbers will likely have been off the charts

 

[Laughing]

The equivalent of 148000 estimated to have tested as positive over the last two weeks from ONS weekly snapshot testing. The link suggests 10000 per day, which is high for track and trace but not much higher than the official daily tested figures.

No difference found in age categories from 2 years to 70+ years old. (Schools going back on 1 June?)

Those in health care have higher rates of infection.

London R at 0.5. The rest of the country higher.

148000 infected

The link below suggests 200000 may have had it at any one time. That makes Vallance's figure of 4% having had it plausible.
Link

I hope there are questions on the implications of these figures at 5pm.

Bear is snapshot testing what it appears to be, random, and not based on folks having symptoms? That seems important to me because it begins to give an idea of how many people have already been infected already.

 

[Alvez_48]

Bear is snapshot testing what it appears to be, random, and not based on folks having symptoms? That seems important to me because it begins to give an idea of how many people have already been infected already.

'
The first national snapshot of Covid-19 rates has revealed that 148,000 people in England were infected with the virus over the past two weeks.

The study, by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), tested 10,705 people in more than 5,000 households and estimated that 0.27% of the population in England were currently positive for Covid-19. That translates to roughly 10,000 people a day across the entire population, between 27 April and 10 May 2020.'

You can spin it negative or positive really we should have been doing this for a long time.

 

[bear66]

Whats the official number for the past 2 weeks?

If it's like this after a long lockdown then during the peak the numbers will likely have been off the charts

About half that rate, but not everyone gets tested. I thought it would be many times higher.

 

[bear66]

Bear is snapshot testing what it appears to be, random, and not based on folks having symptoms? That seems important to me because it begins to give an idea of how many people have already been infected already.

It's random. What I don't know is whether it's the same group next week or another random selection.

 

[Laughing]

Whats the official number for the past 2 weeks?

If it's like this after a long lockdown then during the peak the numbers will likely have been off the charts

I just said that to my wife, but... Several weeks ago the infection rate would have been lower as less people were infected to pass it around (i think)

 

[Laughing]

If you take that number and extrapolate over 4 months, you get 75,000 per week, so 300,000 per month, so, and stick with me, just over a million people infected since begining of february, assuming a steady rate of infection over the period. This is clearly not the case, but you would have to go some to get the numbers we need for "herd immunity" if that even exists.

 

[bear66]

I just said that to my wife, but... Several weeks ago the infection rate would have been lower as less people were infected to pass it around (i think)

There were less than 1000 (measured) cases per day around the lockdown and less than 100 deaths per day.

 

[dooderooni]

I read something this morning that both France and Spain are offering figures of 4 to 5% of the population having been infected.
That differs to other research papers talked about on the Sweden thread, but even if you took an average figure of them all you are still nowhere near achieving herd immunity.

 

[bear66]

I read something this morning that both France and Spain are offering figures of 4 to 5% of the population having been infected.
That differs to other research papers talked about on the Sweden thread, but even if you took an average figure of them all you are still nowhere near achieving herd immunity.

Vallance has quoted 4% as well.

 

[Alvez_48]

I just said that to my wife, but... Several weeks ago the infection rate would have been lower as less people were infected to pass it around (i think)

It's tricky to know really plus like bear said you testing the same people this week again? It feels lower than any of us would like that's for sure but at the same time the various serological tests around the world are showing much higher incidence several weeks ago.
I was absolutely sure that our rates would be higher than say Germany because our deaths are much higher and lockdown much softer.. but then Germany only count positive test deaths.
The better news for the day is definitely the '100% accurate' anti body test.

 

[Laughing]

There were less than 1000 (measured) cases per day around the lockdown and less than 100 deaths per day.

Yeah Bear, I get that before lockdown the numbers would look very different, but could they statistically be as high as, say a million a week? It is that kind of scale we would need to get anywhere near herd immunity.

 

[Alvez_48]

Yeah Bear, I get that before lockdown the numbers would look very different, but could they statistically be as high as, say a million a week? It is that kind of scale we would need to get anywhere near herd immunity.

Don't forget during the pre lockdown and peak period only testing a few thousand a day plus only frontline NHS staff.

 

[Laughing]

The anti-body test, as you say, if it can be produced and administered in the scale required is an absolute game changer

 

[bear66]

Yeah Bear, I get that before lockdown the numbers would look very different, but could they statistically be as high as, say a million a week? It is that kind of scale we would need to get anywhere near herd immunity.

Based on the ONS figure of up to 200000 at any time earlier on , it's 2-3%, so lower than the 4% from Vallance.

As I said above, I hope someone asks "What does this mean?" tonight.

 

[Laughing]

Yeah as Alvez says the numbers are not as high as we would have hoped for. It really is "any port in a storm" at the minute.

 

[Alvez_48]

@borolad259 what you think to this? Don't know what to make of it given I know you've watched very similar stuff to me.

On the one hand everything we've seen would suggest we were way more people infected than most (per capita) based on deaths but this would suggest we aren't.. it would put our IFR seemingly WAY higher than Germany/Holland/Sweden/USA I just don't understand that given at no point has our healthcare system been badly impacted. Is it the care homes?!

 

[bear66]

@borolad259 what you think to this? Don't know what to make of it given I know you've watched very similar stuff to me.

On the one hand everything we've seen would suggest we were way more people infected than most (per capita) based on deaths but this would suggest we aren't.. it would put our IFR seemingly WAY higher than Germany/Holland/Sweden/USA I just don't understand that given at no point has our healthcare system been badly impacted. Is it the care homes?!

Care homes weren't part of the survey . . . but we seem to have comparable care home deaths as other countries (probably 50% when we find out the real numbers). So, as you say, we may have higher deaths to positive cases in the community.

 

[Alvez_48]

Take this for example.. this is a just released Dutch study.. Google translate won't work.. last column is death rate. Infact it's all pretty self explanatory.. my point is those ONS figures would say ours are worse by levels of magnitude.

Furthermore:-

'
Most official testing, which has picked up a total of 233,151 positive cases over the entire outbreak is being done in hospitals and care homes. But researchers at the University of Manchester have said this is likely huge under-estimate of the number of people who have had the illness already.

Those scientists, who studied the rate of infection in local areas, predicted that 29 per cent of everyone in Britain, more than 19million people, had already caught the infection by April 19, when 73,000 people had been diagnosed'