Excess Deaths 4th Dec

1finny

Well-known member
Been running at circa 20% v 5 year average for previous 3/4 weeks
Latest (for Dec 4th) they are 15% v 5 year average

Optimistic

And, according to BBC bed occupation is at 89% - lower than last year.
 
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Yes, I saw that.

Covid deaths have pretty much plateaued over the past two weeks, so I’d expect that to remain similar in the next two ONS releases. That said, infections have been rising again for nearly a fortnight, as have hospital admissions, which you would expect to translate into further deaths in the near future.

The beds occupancy is interesting. We’ve only just hit the true flu season, so it’s doubtful it’s because of fewer flu cases.

I suspect it might be because the NHS is performing many fewer elective procedures that require overnight stays in hospital. Given these are the first thing cancelled when bed pressures become acute, that would mean there’s less surge capacity than in previous years.

Still, got to be seen as positive news in advance of what’s likely to be a very difficult January for the NHS.
 
There should a fewer cases of all transmittable diseases due to social distancing and extra cleansing.

Had a chat about that in our business just yesterday.
In normal times people are happyish to come into work with the odd sniffle.
We now know how easy it is (and how productive people can be) working from home.
Just gives us all an opportunity to be a bit more flexible for the greater good.
 
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