Covid: "UK’s worst ever public health failures’:1000s unnecessary lost lives [Media]

I can see Johnson going back to the polls in the run up to Christmas again in 2022.

They can just about keep battling away on the various fronts that they have decided to fight against.

I think they can keep on pretending they're doing a decent job to enough of the population and where they aren't blame Covid and the EU.

As for this year going into next. I'm not sure that they will lockdown, unless they absolutely have to - leaving it too late as before.

Labour need to get on the front foot as soon as possible. I don't like or dislike Starmer but I think he's pretty devoid of personality and they need a leader who can start afresh and the public can recognise. I'd either try and parachute Burnham in or get Dan Jarvis to go for the leadership after he relinquishes his mayoralty early next year. I'm not that bothered about the internal machinations of Labour and my ideal would be a progressive coalition next time out. It works well elsewhere and with current polling, we're not a million miles from that.
I can’t see a full lockdown happening again, a too large majority just wouldn’t stick to not seeing family and friends again.
Schools/businesses may close or work from home for a period again, but people would just ignore the not going to others houses part.
Unless they dress it up as lock down to save Christmas or something.
 
A bit of common sense would have gone a long way at the start of the pandemic. It didn't need a scientist or didn't need a maths professor. It required someone with o level maths to run the numbers and a strong leader with a bit of common sense. This pandemic hasn't been difficult to predict nor to manage. It has gone exactly where anyone with basic arithmetic thought it would go.
Its had a lot of behavioural scientists' opinions and input. Many on the SAGE committee but no leading epidemiology scientists.
 
Its had a lot of behavioural scientists' opinions and input. Many on the SAGE committee but no leading epidemiology scientists.
Behavioural science... Hmm like the science of lockdown fatigue for example.

As with most things in life its not really very complex at all.
 
A bit of common sense would have gone a long way at the start of the pandemic. It didn't need a scientist or didn't need a maths professor. It required someone with o level maths to run the numbers and a strong leader with a bit of common sense. This pandemic hasn't been difficult to predict nor to manage. It has gone exactly where anyone with basic arithmetic thought it would go.

Hasn't been difficult to predict? You might want to let SAGE know. We have had ~18 months of data to work with and on the 8th Sept SAGE laid out the likely epidemic trajectory for the next two months. With much of the adult population vaccinated and ONS estimates of ~90% of people having antibodies they laid out likely scenarios in which hospitalisations would exceed those in January when we were early in the vaccine roll out and had less immunity from infections.

As for maths professors there is one from my old institution tweeting graphs about exponential growth and doubling times of hospitalisations....... They have been level for two months.

The pandemic has been a real eye opener in which I have seen certain academics who I would normally think of as intelligent say and tweet some truly remarkably stupid things. I was flicking through the tweets of very recent science Nobel laureate and found they had re-tweeted Tomas Peuyo's 'hammer and the dance' nonsense early in the pandemic ....... oh well.


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The modelling has, in my view, been a disaster. Worse than that it has used to implement some truly bizarre restrictions on peoples lives. I like the following simple observation by Euzebiusz Jamrozik:

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I really can't see another lock-down. That would mean this government admitting failure. We'll just have to 'take it on the chin'.
 
Hasn't been difficult to predict? You might want to let SAGE know. We have had ~18 months of data to work with and on the 8th Sept SAGE laid out the likely epidemic trajectory for the next two months. With much of the adult population vaccinated and ONS estimates of ~90% of people having antibodies they laid out likely scenarios in which hospitalisations would exceed those in January when we were early in the vaccine roll out and had less immunity from infections.

As for maths professors there is one from my old institution tweeting graphs about exponential growth and doubling times of hospitalisations....... They have been level for two months.

The pandemic has been a real eye opener in which I have seen certain academics who I would normally think of as intelligent say and tweet some truly remarkably stupid things. I was flicking through the tweets of very recent science Nobel laureate and found they had re-tweeted Tomas Peuyo's 'hammer and the dance' nonsense early in the pandemic ....... oh well.


View attachment 26322

The modelling has, in my view, been a disaster. Worse than that it has used to implement some truly bizarre restrictions on peoples lives. I like the following simple observation by Euzebiusz Jamrozik:

View attachment 26323
Of course it hasnt been difficult to predict. Exponential increase in infections if you do nothing. The same increases are coming this winter too. We will be at 100,000 infections a day before the end of november if we do nothing.

With that level of infections we will be seeing about 300+ deaths a day.

It's been very easy to predict, made complex by people trying to justify baffling decisions from an incompetent government,
 
If figures are on the up again, which they are, simple question, the people are on hear who find it worrying are you still attending matches?
 
Anyone had your booster yet? That's meant to be the key to staying out of lockdow.

Doesn't seem to be progressing well atm.
 
Of course it hasnt been difficult to predict. Exponential increase in infections if you do nothing. The same increases are coming this winter too. We will be at 100,000 infections a day before the end of november if we do nothing.

With that level of infections we will be seeing about 300+ deaths a day.

It's been very easy to predict, made complex by people trying to justify baffling decisions from an incompetent government,
I read that in a BAD flu season we have between 200-300 deaths a day, and yet little has ever been done (by way of restrictions) against flu.

If your 300 a day figure is correct, I doubt much will be done. Depending on how big the '+' becomes could be the factor.
 
I read that in a BAD flu season we have between 200-300 deaths a day, and yet little has ever been done (by way of restrictions) against flu.

If your 300 a day figure is correct, I doubt much will be done. Depending on how big the '+' becomes could be the factor.
That may be right, but seems very high to me. The main thing with flu is that the figures are published way after the fact so you don't see real-time updates.

The second thing is I didn't extrapolate beyond 100,000 infections a day. If we do nothing we may get 200,000 infections a day pr 300,000.
 
I read that in a BAD flu season we have between 200-300 deaths a day, and yet little has ever been done (by way of restrictions) against flu.

If your 300 a day figure is correct, I doubt much will be done. Depending on how big the '+' becomes could be the factor.

The difficulty is Flu is not nearly as contagious, and also factored in to healthcare delivery annually.

Currently covid is far more contagious, not factored in to longterm healthcare capacity and not only requires facilities but at present also requires the resource of healthcare staff through contracting the easily transmitted disease and having to isolate, as well as having to manage childcare/ family care due to illness in the community.

Each day the hospital within my area is on a knife-edge to discharge to make capacity for new admissions. The covid cases are stable over the last 2 weeks for admissions/ discharges/ deaths. Unfortunately that additional capacity requirement has the hospital full in October rather than the normal Nov/ Dec capacity breech.

I am seeing routine services being modified and cut back at present with the local minor injuries unit shut due to staffing issues and outpatient services being reduced to provide more support/space for ITU and ward capacity for the winter. Going to be another hard winter for health and social care unfortunately.
 
The difficulty is Flu is not nearly as contagious, and also factored in to healthcare delivery annually.

Currently covid is far more contagious, not factored in to longterm healthcare capacity and not only requires facilities but at present also requires the resource of healthcare staff through contracting the easily transmitted disease and having to isolate, as well as having to manage childcare/ family care due to illness in the community.

Each day the hospital within my area is on a knife-edge to discharge to make capacity for new admissions. The covid cases are stable over the last 2 weeks for admissions/ discharges/ deaths. Unfortunately that additional capacity requirement has the hospital full in October rather than the normal Nov/ Dec capacity breech.

I am seeing routine services being modified and cut back at present with the local minor injuries unit shut due to staffing issues and outpatient services being reduced to provide more support/space for ITU and ward capacity for the winter. Going to be another hard winter for health and social care unfortunately.
I think social care will be where the needs are felt most.

I fully expect that this will be the latest sector that calls for visa entitlements after the butchers and HGV drivers.
 
I think social care will be where the needs are felt most.

I fully expect that this will be the latest sector that calls for visa entitlements after the butchers and HGV drivers.

People are tiring and leaving across healthcare at present. I've never seen so many people leave that are not going into other roles. Usually the staff loss I have experienced has been to promotion/ sideways movements but remaining within healthcare.
 
I think social care will be where the needs are felt most.

I fully expect that this will be the latest sector that calls for visa entitlements after the butchers and HGV drivers.
I've read that bed blocking is going on due to shortages of care home staff caused by the vaccine mandate, a shortage in trained staff and staff leaving the sector because of **** poor wages and hours.
 
I've read that bed blocking is going on due to shortages of care home staff caused by the vaccine mandate, a shortage in trained staff and staff leaving the sector because of **** poor wages and hours.
I absolutely hate that phrase 'bed blocking'. It makes it sounds like patients are to blame rather than the system.
 
Is anyone not attending games due to their worry around this?
I have changed my routine at the ground, don't spend any time in the concourse before the game or at halftime and I'm one of the very few who still wears a mask when walking through the concourse to my seat.
 
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