Covid: "UK’s worst ever public health failures’:1000s unnecessary lost lives [Media]

I have changed my routine at the ground, don't spend any time in the concourse before the game or at halftime and I'm one of the very few who still wears a mask when walking through the concourse to my seat.
I would stay out of the concourse and pubs and away from public transport too.
 
I can see Johnson going back to the polls in the run up to Christmas again in 2022.

They can just about keep battling away on the various fronts that they have decided to fight against.

I think they can keep on pretending they're doing a decent job to enough of the population and where they aren't blame Covid and the EU.

As for this year going into next. I'm not sure that they will lockdown, unless they absolutely have to - leaving it too late as before.

Labour need to get on the front foot as soon as possible. I don't like or dislike Starmer but I think he's pretty devoid of personality and they need a leader who can start afresh and the public can recognise. I'd either try and parachute Burnham in or get Dan Jarvis to go for the leadership after he relinquishes his mayoralty early next year. I'm not that bothered about the internal machinations of Labour and my ideal would be a progressive coalition next time out. It works well elsewhere and with current polling, we're not a million miles from that.
Barry Gardiner for Labour Leader

 
Of course it hasnt been difficult to predict. Exponential increase in infections if you do nothing. The same increases are coming this winter too. We will be at 100,000 infections a day before the end of november if we do nothing.

With that level of infections we will be seeing about 300+ deaths a day.

It's been very easy to predict, made complex by people trying to justify baffling decisions from an incompetent government,

Very easy to predict?! Really? Shall we go over some of the US data and 'expert' predictions?! It was never 'easy' to predict, though likely broad patterns were dismissed by modelling. The mistake, imo, epidemiologists (Fauci, Ferguson etc) have made is not acknowledging where they were wrong (they would have gained credit but their arrogance didn't allow admission of errors). That, in addition to out of control governments with no opposition (looking at you Labour) led to senior government ministers discussing Scotch egg qualification for substantial meal status in autumn 2020. Looking forward to the 2021 version.

Prior to the July 19th 're-opening' Neil Ferguson (who has modeled this for over 18 months and had access to all the data you could wish for) said 100,000 thousand cases a day was "inevitable", 200,000 "likely" and 300,000 "possible" (and that was in the short term). What happened?..... mid Jul to mid Oct of stable 'cases'.

Cases:

1634686660619.png

Deaths:

1634687502883.png

You'll notice the deaths flat / trending downwards from early Sept. Aren't vaccines (and immunity from infection) great? Earlier in the pandemic I, like you, would have expected a rise in Jan (that seasonality 'thing'). I'm now less sure, there are a couple of mathematicians / economists who actually look at data (not just make projections based on 'doubling times') who predict a 'quiet' winter and a rise in Feb/March. We'll see I guess.

It is only ever exponential until it's not.....

1634684940296.png

The real question is why? Why do we see the 'waves' we do, even in countries with widely varying NPIs?

"the same increases are coming in winter" - Why would that be? Is the virus........ seasonal? I was told many times on this board that it isn't. It very much is, but the reasons for seasonality are simply not understood.

I liken much of the epidemic modeling I have seen to something similar within my own scientific area...... computational chemical modeling without structural information.
 
I would stay out of the concourse and pubs and away from public transport too.

Following comments/questions are straying into personal questions, so obviously feel free to tell me to f**k off (I won't be offended).........

Are you speaking from your personal position or advice to Yearbyred?

What position would the UK have to get to (cases, daily deaths, vaccinations etc) for you to not worry about standing in the concourse / going on public transport? Have you been vaccinated? (tell me to mind my own my own business if I'm encroaching).

I think I can come across as 'combative' on here but I know relatives who have the same sense of anxiety of being in crowded social settings and I worry. The reason being that we have vaccines which protect (well, but not completely) the vulnerable and the virus is endemic, it ain't going anywhere. And if we test every winter going forward we will see thousands of cases a day...... as we would for other other respiratory virus'.
 
Following comments/questions are straying into personal questions, so obviously feel free to tell me to f**k off (I won't be offended).........

Are you speaking from your personal position or advice to Yearbyred?

What position would the UK have to get to (cases, daily deaths, vaccinations etc) for you to not worry about standing in the concourse / going on public transport? Have you been vaccinated? (tell me to mind my own my own business if I'm encroaching).

I think I can come across as 'combative' on here but I know relatives who have the same sense of anxiety of being in crowded social settings and I worry. The reason being that we have vaccines which protect (well, but not completely) the vulnerable and the virus is endemic, it ain't going anywhere. And if we test every winter going forward we will see thousands of cases a day...... as we would for other other respiratory virus'.
Appreciate your continued effort (I think) to reassure us about the Covid situation and to play down it’s dangers post vaccinations.

However having had a relative and a friend succumb over the past few months to this pandemic at relatively young ages and good health and fitness you must forgive me if I dont go with your “like any other respiratory virus“ message and will continue to be cautious not get myself infected or worse infect others. I’ll choose to wear masks on public transport, in supermarkets and in the concourses at games.

If that helps just a tiny bit then I feel I would have made a positive effort for barely any sacrifice.
 
Theres much to be said for "modelling" - but raw facts point to corporate negligence and avoidable deaths.
We have the highest death rate of any country in Europe at the moment [per capita]. According to BBC 4 this morning.
There is obviously a "trend" with the "bodies piling high".
Covid is more than a "respiratory virus".
Most respiratory viruses dont lead to deaths in the millions on an industrial scale.



1634712675949.png
Source: Telegraph.
 

Mask wearing, work from home and ban on indoor gatherings must return, says NHS leader​

NHS Confederation chief warned ministers must immediately enforce 'Plan B' coronavirus restrictions or 'risk stumbling into a winter crisis'

By Gareth Davies, Breaking News Editor 20 October 2021 • 7:45am


Mask wearing at Kings's Cross Station back in July 2021

Mask wearing at Kings's Cross Station back in July 2021 Credit: Henry Nicholls/Reuters

Mask wearing, working from home and a ban on indoor gatherings must return, an NHS leader has warned.

Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, has warned ministers must immediately enforce "Plan B" coronavirus restrictions or "risk stumbling into a winter crisis".

Amid rising Covid-19 cases, he has urged the Government to implement the back-up strategy which involves measures including bringing back mandatory face coverings in public places.

Talking to the BBC's Radio 4 Today programme, Mr Taylor said action was needed, including: "Mask wearing in crowded places, I think avoiding unnecessary indoor gatherings, I think working from home if you can.

"I say I don't underestimate that these are inconveniences, but we have to make a choice if we can see what is almost inevitable down the line."
The NHS Confederation's warning comes as coronavirus deaths in the UK rose to their highest daily level since early March, while cases are at their highest for almost three months.

Downing Street said it was keeping a "very close eye" on rising case rates, but added the Prime Minister has "absolutely no plan to introduce Plan B", which could also involve introducing vaccine passports for nightclub entry.

The NHS Confederation is the membership organisation that brings together, supports and speaks for the whole healthcare system in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Mr Taylor said the NHS is preparing for what could be "the most challenging winter on record" and urged the public to "show extra support for the NHS" by "behaving in ways that will keep themselves and others safe".

He added: "It is time for the Government to enact Plan B of its strategy without delay because without pre-emptive action, we risk stumbling into a winter crisis.

"Also, health leaders need to understand what a 'Plan C' would entail if these measures are insufficient.

"The Government should not wait for Covid infections to rocket and for NHS pressures to be sky high before the panic alarm is sounded."

Mr Taylor said if the Government "fails to get a grip" on rising coronavirus cases, the nation's recovery from the pandemic could be "put at risk".

On Tuesday, the Government said a further 223 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 - bringing the UK total to 138,852.

While the numbers are often higher on Tuesdays because of a lag in reporting deaths and cases over the weekend, this is the highest figure for daily reported deaths since March 9.

Meanwhile, the seven-day average for cases is standing at 44,145 cases per day - the highest level for almost three months.

The Prime Minister's official spokesman has previously said Plan B would only be used if there was a "significant risk of the NHS being overwhelmed".

The spokesman said: "There are a number of different factors that would play into that decision.

"Largely it would be required when there was a significant risk of the NHS being overwhelmed.

"We are not at that point. Because of the vaccination programme, the levels we are seeing in both patients admitted to hospital and deaths are far lower than we saw in previous peaks."

On Tuesday, Professor Neil Ferguson, a leading member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said he thinks "Plan B" could be implemented in England this winter, but it is unlikely "we'll ever get close" to the lockdown the country experienced in January.

He added that the UK is no longer in the top rank of European countries in terms of overall vaccination coverage, particularly in vaccinating teenagers.

The UK now has one of the highest weekly rates of new reported cases in the world.

Just over 67% of the UK population has received two doses of vaccine, according to Government figures - compared with at least 75% in Denmark, 79% in Spain and 86% in Portugal.

The weekly rate of new reported cases of Covid-19 in the UK has jumped from 367 cases per 100,000 people at the start of October to its current level of 463 per 100,000.

By contrast, rates have dropped to very low levels in neighbouring countries such as Spain (24 per 100,000), France (48) and Germany (80).
 
Very easy to predict?! Really? Shall we go over some of the US data and 'expert' predictions?! It was never 'easy' to predict, though likely broad patterns were dismissed by modelling. The mistake, imo, epidemiologists (Fauci, Ferguson etc) have made is not acknowledging where they were wrong (they would have gained credit but their arrogance didn't allow admission of errors). That, in addition to out of control governments with no opposition (looking at you Labour) led to senior government ministers discussing Scotch egg qualification for substantial meal status in autumn 2020. Looking forward to the 2021 version.

Prior to the July 19th 're-opening' Neil Ferguson (who has modeled this for over 18 months and had access to all the data you could wish for) said 100,000 thousand cases a day was "inevitable", 200,000 "likely" and 300,000 "possible" (and that was in the short term). What happened?..... mid Jul to mid Oct of stable 'cases'.

Cases:

View attachment 26348

Deaths:

View attachment 26349

You'll notice the deaths flat / trending downwards from early Sept. Aren't vaccines (and immunity from infection) great? Earlier in the pandemic I, like you, would have expected a rise in Jan (that seasonality 'thing'). I'm now less sure, there are a couple of mathematicians / economists who actually look at data (not just make projections based on 'doubling times') who predict a 'quiet' winter and a rise in Feb/March. We'll see I guess.

It is only ever exponential until it's not.....

View attachment 26347

The real question is why? Why do we see the 'waves' we do, even in countries with widely varying NPIs?

"the same increases are coming in winter" - Why would that be? Is the virus........ seasonal? I was told many times on this board that it isn't. It very much is, but the reasons for seasonality are simply not understood.

I liken much of the epidemic modeling I have seen to something similar within my own scientific area...... computational chemical modeling without structural information.

It's great to look back with hindsight at these things - particularly at the modelling. But I'm not sure the modelling is what people are saying was easy to predict.

What I remember it that the figures were reported and the public begun to act 2-3 weeks before the Government got round to doing anything. The best example was at the start of the pandemic when the Gov were practically forced into lockdown when sports events / companies etc shut down before the official lockdown.

As the cases showed a slight trend upwards it is very easy to predict that without some kind of action they will continue upwards. This is what's happening now. The Government always hold on for too long in the belief that it's only a blip. They have got it wrong 3 times now and cost 1000's of lives. It looks like they are getting it wrong again.

It's not hindsight to suggest that we shouldn't have abandoned masks - and Plan B is wearing masks. Experts say that it will slow it down. Maybe if we hadn't abandoned them in the first place we wouldn't be here. And again, I remember back a couple of months ago the majority calling it stupid to get rid of masks. Yet Boris Johnson thought he knew better. Looks like he didn't...again.
 

Mask wearing, work from home and ban on indoor gatherings must return, says NHS leader​

NHS Confederation chief warned ministers must immediately enforce 'Plan B' coronavirus restrictions or 'risk stumbling into a winter crisis'

By Gareth Davies, Breaking News Editor 20 October 2021 • 7:45am


Mask wearing at Kings's Cross Station back in July 2021's Cross Station back in July 2021

Mask wearing at Kings's Cross Station back in July 2021 Credit: Henry Nicholls/Reuters

Mask wearing, working from home and a ban on indoor gatherings must return, an NHS leader has warned.

Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, has warned ministers must immediately enforce "Plan B" coronavirus restrictions or "risk stumbling into a winter crisis".

Amid rising Covid-19 cases, he has urged the Government to implement the back-up strategy which involves measures including bringing back mandatory face coverings in public places.

Talking to the BBC's Radio 4 Today programme, Mr Taylor said action was needed, including: "Mask wearing in crowded places, I think avoiding unnecessary indoor gatherings, I think working from home if you can.

"I say I don't underestimate that these are inconveniences, but we have to make a choice if we can see what is almost inevitable down the line."
The NHS Confederation's warning comes as coronavirus deaths in the UK rose to their highest daily level since early March, while cases are at their highest for almost three months.

Downing Street said it was keeping a "very close eye" on rising case rates, but added the Prime Minister has "absolutely no plan to introduce Plan B", which could also involve introducing vaccine passports for nightclub entry.

The NHS Confederation is the membership organisation that brings together, supports and speaks for the whole healthcare system in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Mr Taylor said the NHS is preparing for what could be "the most challenging winter on record" and urged the public to "show extra support for the NHS" by "behaving in ways that will keep themselves and others safe".

He added: "It is time for the Government to enact Plan B of its strategy without delay because without pre-emptive action, we risk stumbling into a winter crisis.

"Also, health leaders need to understand what a 'Plan C' would entail if these measures are insufficient.

"The Government should not wait for Covid infections to rocket and for NHS pressures to be sky high before the panic alarm is sounded."

Mr Taylor said if the Government "fails to get a grip" on rising coronavirus cases, the nation's recovery from the pandemic could be "put at risk".

On Tuesday, the Government said a further 223 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 - bringing the UK total to 138,852.

While the numbers are often higher on Tuesdays because of a lag in reporting deaths and cases over the weekend, this is the highest figure for daily reported deaths since March 9.

Meanwhile, the seven-day average for cases is standing at 44,145 cases per day - the highest level for almost three months.

The Prime Minister's official spokesman has previously said Plan B would only be used if there was a "significant risk of the NHS being overwhelmed".

The spokesman said: "There are a number of different factors that would play into that decision.

"Largely it would be required when there was a significant risk of the NHS being overwhelmed.

"We are not at that point. Because of the vaccination programme, the levels we are seeing in both patients admitted to hospital and deaths are far lower than we saw in previous peaks."

On Tuesday, Professor Neil Ferguson, a leading member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said he thinks "Plan B" could be implemented in England this winter, but it is unlikely "we'll ever get close" to the lockdown the country experienced in January.

He added that the UK is no longer in the top rank of European countries in terms of overall vaccination coverage, particularly in vaccinating teenagers.

The UK now has one of the highest weekly rates of new reported cases in the world.

Just over 67% of the UK population has received two doses of vaccine, according to Government figures - compared with at least 75% in Denmark, 79% in Spain and 86% in Portugal.

The weekly rate of new reported cases of Covid-19 in the UK has jumped from 367 cases per 100,000 people at the start of October to its current level of 463 per 100,000.

By contrast, rates have dropped to very low levels in neighbouring countries such as Spain (24 per 100,000), France (48) and Germany (80).

So we should set our watches for 3 weeks like when Johnson will eventually get round to this when the figures are twice as bad as they are now. And his cronies will delight and say he's doing his best...
 
So we should set our watches for 3 weeks like when Johnson will eventually get round to this when the figures are twice as bad as they are now. And his cronies will delight and say he's doing his best...
Meanwhile our borders reopened for inward passengers from countries with high infections such as India and Turkey without quarantine. The delay in simple measures is just incongruous with a safe environment.
 
Following comments/questions are straying into personal questions, so obviously feel free to tell me to f**k off (I won't be offended).........

Are you speaking from your personal position or advice to Yearbyred?

What position would the UK have to get to (cases, daily deaths, vaccinations etc) for you to not worry about standing in the concourse / going on public transport? Have you been vaccinated? (tell me to mind my own my own business if I'm encroaching).

I think I can come across as 'combative' on here but I know relatives who have the same sense of anxiety of being in crowded social settings and I worry. The reason being that we have vaccines which protect (well, but not completely) the vulnerable and the virus is endemic, it ain't going anywhere. And if we test every winter going forward we will see thousands of cases a day...... as we would for other other respiratory virus'.
Your not being rude your asking and supporting your opinion which is fine, we don't have to agree.

I am vaccinated but still wear a mask in shops. I am not anxious in crowded places but it seems sensible to avoid them as much as possible whilst cases are very high and climbing.

The acceptance of a high yearly death toll is one way to go but in an article on Monday Ferguson gave some opinions as to why our infections are much higher than.... Well everywhere.

He attributed it to no social distancing rules and slow booster jabs along with slow teen vaccinations.

The climb was inevitable but starting at 35000 infections a day as we head into winter wasn't.

Common sense wad used by lots of people on this board pre regulations and many companies mine included shut their offices and banned travel from March last year and continue to be closed. All this against the advice of sage and our government because it was the sensible thing to do. It didn't require sage modelling. Infosys used their own modellers and have a pandemic department that made these decisions. They did much better than our government, albeit they had less decisions to make.
 
So we should set our watches for 3 weeks like when Johnson will eventually get round to this when the figures are twice as bad as they are now. And his cronies will delight and say he's doing his best...
Molten - we must both be headline writers.
I concur with your sentiments.(y)
Johnson will probably be too busy Christmas shopping in Harrods or holidaying with his 7 kids in Ibiza..
 
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