COVID stats - help!

[Ingleby_Flash]

News says the number of people with it fell slightly this week. The reports also say 7 day average is down 24% Which is a lot more than ‘slight’ They also say the R number is 1.2 to 1.4, which I understand means numbers should be going up.

What the hell is it, I’m not a stupid person but it’s clear as mud.

 

[HolySalami]

'cases' positive tests fallen 24% on 7 day average... people who attend for test.

General survailalance testing (posted and retuned as part of react study etc) shows only a smaller drop.

 

[bear66]

The ONS have just reported the latest R number as 0.8 to 1.

Infections have dropped from 1 in 50 to 1 in 55 in the last two weeks (there were no figures last week).

 

[Duffman]

Still scarily high whatever way you look at it and so susceptible to wild fluctuations from even the most mundane of changes in policy. Bring on the vaccine I say. (although apparently to be 50% reduction in availability for us efficient lot in the North East sadly)

 

[Ingleby_Flash]

The ONS have just reported the latest R number as 0.8 to 1.

Infections have dropped from 1 in 50 to 1 in 55 in the last two weeks (there were no figures last week).

Makes more sense with the R number below 1 at the time I was trying to get my head round it that wasn’t reported.

 

[Ingleby_Flash]

'cases' positive tests fallen 24% on 7 day average... people who attend for test.

General survailalance testing (posted and retuned as part of react study etc) shows only a smaller drop.

Thanks, So are we saying that for people who choose to have a test 24% less have got it, but in the general population the numbers have fallen a lot less? Why would there be such a difference?

 

[Randy]

The ONS have just reported the latest R number as 0.8 to 1.

Infections have dropped from 1 in 50 to 1 in 55 in the last two weeks (there were no figures last week).

Doesn't that now then fly in the face of the imperial survey that basically said cases were levelling off even rising?

 

[bear66]

Doesn't that now then fly in the face of the imperial survey that basically said cases were levelling off even rising?

You need to get behind the methodologies to understand why they're different. A small fall compared with a small rise makes a big difference in R number. The ONS data is a continuum, although they missed one week of data, with three times the number of tests across the whole of the UK. The imperial report is a snapshot of England over a month later than the last snapshot. It also looks at mobile data to get background information on places of infection.

 

[Randy]

Next slide please....

 

[Ingleby_Flash]

You notice that because they’ve had to publish a fall in cases and R number they’ve also announced the new variant may have higher mortality rate, something they’ve probably suspected for a while. I don’t doubt it may be true, but this attempt to control us through fear is offensive.