Coronavirus UK spread shows early signs of slowing

There is an article somewhere where it says you should a 4 day moving average to get a more consistent view of trends. As single day figures bounce around a bit. It was about the figures for Spain. I will see if I can find it again and post a link here.
I already posted this graph in the "Coronavirus good news" thread - it also shows a continuing slow-down in new cases in almost all the worst-affected countries (albeit using a 3-day rather than a 4-day average).
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I already posted this graph in the "Coronavirus good news" thread - it also shows a continuing slow-down in new cases in almost all the worst-affected countries (albeit using a 3-day rather than a 4-day average).
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Ta. Saves me looking for it. I hope your latest figures are not similar to the Italian temporary dip around the same time.
 
I was genuinely clinging to his figures, the figures quoted today are so depressing this pandemic is going to grow & grow, its past the stage of control due to people not listening to the government's guidelines
 
I was genuinely clinging to his figures, the figures quoted today are so depressing this pandemic is going to grow & grow, its past the stage of control due to people not listening to the government's guidelines
I think Billy Horner puts things in perspective on the other thread. The rate of increase of infections still going in the right direction, but we are still following Italy.
 
Erimus, I agree that we do need to see good news and especially for people like yourself who have people doing such vital work for the nation, but it needs to be balanced with the bad, however awful it is or however anxious it may make us feel.
I tend to treat all news with caution and try not to get too hopeful or too despondent about the figures despite how it may look to someone reading anything I post on here. We will see those figures get better and the good news will eventually overtake the bad.
All us mortals who aren't on the frontline are being asked to do is to stay in the house. It really isn't much of a personal sacrifice, but it makes a massive difference.
 
The figures today also inc deaths outside hospital for the first time I heard on R5Live so the numbers were expected to be bigger when announced today than yesterday.
 
I'd be cautious about blaming people for not adhering to guidelines. Agreed, they should be, but the damage they do is far outweighed by the damage that lack of PPE for frontline health staff is doing ... where they are dealing with Covid patients and becoming super spreaders themselves. Most of the increases are coming in large urban areas where social distancing is much more difficult ... public transport being used, large office buildings and apartments wit shared entrances/lifts etc. The government would love us all to be blaming each other.
 
I think Billy Horner puts things in perspective on the other thread. The rate of increase of infections still going in the right direction, but we are still following Italy.
The good news is that although we are all in turmoil the stats are showing that lock down in Italy and Spain is reducing the impact longer term. What we are going to have to go through yet is horrible. However things could be getting a little better later.

From a glass half empty person that is the best I can say.
 
The numbers will continue to rise for a while I am afraid. Poor crisis management hasn't helped but it was always going to get worse before it started to improve.

One thing I will say is that people ignoring guidelines may only be part of the problem. The government has created it's own problems with wishy washy advice when it should have been legislation, not a request.

If we get out of this with 20,000 deaths we will have done amazingly well, and I do, unfortunately, expect it to be higher than that.
 
I'd be cautious about blaming people for not adhering to guidelines. Agreed, they should be, but the damage they do is far outweighed by the damage that lack of PPE for frontline health staff is doing ... where they are dealing with Covid patients and becoming super spreaders themselves. Most of the increases are coming in large urban areas where social distancing is much more difficult ... public transport being used, large office buildings and apartments wit shared entrances/lifts etc. The government would love us all to be blaming each other.
I wonder if longer term this will change company policies and they will have more smaller offices spread around the UK rather than big offices in major cities.
 
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