Carrick Effect

The flaws to this statistic have already been pointed out.

We've got more points than the 3 relegated teams over 2023, for self-explanatory reasons.

Leicester - 60 points (17 in the Premier League, 43 in the Championship)
Leeds - 50 points (15 in Prem, 35 in Champ)
Southampton - 47 points (13 in Prem, 34 in Champ)

Middlesbrough - 66 points

Ipswich - 91 points (49 points in League One, 42 points in the Championship)
Plymouth - 67 points (48 in L1, 19 in Champ)
Sheffield Wednesday - 53 points (47 in L1, 6 in Champ)

Obviously you can't ignore the different divisions, the likes of Leicester would have blown our tally out of the water if they were in the Championship for all of it, and Plymouth and Ipswich would have less, though possibly not by a huge amount with Ipswich and the way they're going.
 
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We've got more points than the 3 relegated teams over 2023, for self-explanatory reasons.

Leicester - 60 points (17 in the Premier League, 43 in the Championship)
Leeds - 50 points (15 in Prem, 35 in Champ)
Southampton - 47 points (13 in Prem, 34 in Champ)

Middlesbrough - 66 points

Ipswich - 91 points (49 points in League One, 42 points in the Championship)
Plymouth - 67 points (48 in L1, 19 in Champ)
Sheffield Wednesday - 53 points (47 in L1, 6 in Champ)

Obviously you can't ignore the different divisions, the likes of Leicester would have blown our tally out of the water if they were in the Championship for all of it, and Plymouth and Ipswich would have less, though possibly not by a huge amount with Ipswich and the way they're going.
Are those 66 points from 39 matches? I think I've counted that right. Which is 1.69 points/match or 78 points a season. That total would finish 4th or 5th in the last 5 seasons.
It's solid play-off form but quite a bit short of what is usually required for automatic.

However in the 23/24 season we have only been achieving 1.5 points/game and to reach that total of 78 points we will need to achieve 1.82pts/game through the remainder of the season. Consistency is key.
 
the stats don't take into consideration the dreadful start we had.. the drops.. the no compromising sacrifices I believe Carrick made to turn us into an all singing all dancing goal scoring winning machine. If that Preston game doesn't give fans a wake up I don't know what will. Preston are a solid team and they didn't play badly. their form is atrocious.. but isn't it always.. right before we get absolutely tonked!

Smith--Fry--Lenihan--Engel.. all out. remember when our back four was out under Warnock.. we went into a severe decline.

Hey.. before that If we had an injury to Fry or Tavernier it was a guaranteed loss.. the days of having one striker.. maybe.

Hackney.. out.. very much our Tavernier of the season.. maybe not.. maybe it's McGree. BOTH OUT.

Forss OUT

Credit where Credit is due to our recruitment.. but it goes no where without a clear and concise plan, no where without a manager who can make the right decisions at the right time.

This squad is SOLID and to see Matt Clarke return, back into the fold like an absolute beast.. ridiculous.

How may Changes did we make? FORCED CHANGES and then rocking up with a 4-0 win. Takes some going that y'know

C A R R I C K P O W E R
 
the stats don't take into consideration the dreadful start we had.. the drops.. the no compromising sacrifices I believe Carrick made to turn us into an all singing all dancing goal scoring winning machine. If that Preston game doesn't give fans a wake up I don't know what will. Preston are a solid team and they didn't play badly. their form is atrocious.. but isn't it always.. right before we get absolutely tonked!

Smith--Fry--Lenihan--Engel.. all out. remember when our back four was out under Warnock.. we went into a severe decline.

Hey.. before that If we had an injury to Fry or Tavernier it was a guaranteed loss.. the days of having one striker.. maybe.

Hackney.. out.. very much our Tavernier of the season.. maybe not.. maybe it's McGree. BOTH OUT.

Forss OUT

Credit where Credit is due to our recruitment.. but it goes no where without a clear and concise plan, no where without a manager who can make the right decisions at the right time.

This squad is SOLID and to see Matt Clarke return, back into the fold like an absolute beast.. ridiculous.

How may Changes did we make? FORCED CHANGES and then rocking up with a 4-0 win. Takes some going that y'know

C A R R I C K P O W E R
The stats don't take into account the dreadful start we had because the stats reflect reality. The dreadful start happened. The same as our form dramatically dropped off at the end of last season.


As for the rest of your post. LOVE IT
 
Are those 66 points from 39 matches? I think I've counted that right. Which is 1.69 points/match or 78 points a season. That total would finish 4th or 5th in the last 5 seasons.
It's solid play-off form but quite a bit short of what is usually required for automatic.

However in the 23/24 season we have only been achieving 1.5 points/game and to reach that total of 78 points we will need to achieve 1.82pts/game through the remainder of the season. Consistency is key.

Yeah, I'll be surprised if we managed that, though I'll obviously be buzzing if we do.

A bit more fortune with injuries and an improvement up front and you never know.
 
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The stats don't take into account the dreadful start we had because the stats reflect reality. The dreadful start happened. The same as our form dramatically dropped off at the end of last season.


As for the rest of your post. LOVE IT
that's not where we are right now.. the table is lying! the same as our form dramatically dropping off at the end of last season.. loan players unfortunately wont give you that extra edge.
 
that's not where we are right now.. the table is lying! the same as our form dramatically dropping off at the end of last season.. loan players unfortunately wont give you that extra edge.
This isn't your first season watching championship football surely. Every team has good and bad runs. We aren't good enough to avoid them, not many are. You can't just discount them because they make the stats look bad. At times last season we were the best team in the league but towards the end, when it mattered most, we were poor. We beat Leicester, battered Preston but looked poor against Bristol. It's the nature of the championship.

I think it is clear to see that we are one of the teams good enough to make the playoff spots but there are 10 about 10 teams which would say the same. Over the course of the season that's probably where we will end up, or very close to it, but let's not kid ourselves into believing we are automatic contenders by cherry-picking stats to suit. The championship is 46 games long. Those first 10 games are worth as many points as any other run of 10 games.
 
This isn't your first season watching championship football surely. Every team has good and bad runs. We aren't good enough to avoid them, not many are. You can't just discount them because they make the stats look bad. At times last season we were the best team in the league but towards the end, when it mattered most, we were poor. We beat Leicester, battered Preston but looked poor against Bristol. It's the nature of the championship.

I think it is clear to see that we are one of the teams good enough to make the playoff spots but there are 10 about 10 teams which would say the same. Over the course of the season that's probably where we will end up, or very close to it, but let's not kid ourselves into believing we are automatic contenders by cherry-picking stats to suit. The championship is 46 games long. Those first 10 games are worth as many points as any other run of 10 games.
mean vs median innit tho bruv
 
It's not automatic promotion form but when you take into account the deficiencies in squad depth when he took over and losing our best player and 3 top quality loans (4 if you count Steffen) it's still a good statistic and shows we're stable and on the right trajectory.

Because of the nature of being a championship side we're always at risk of losing our best players. I suppose the aim is to accept you might end up taking 1 step back, but recruit well enough so it becomes 2 steps forwards.

This season we've got a weaker starting 11, but a much stronger squad, fewer loans (so should have a better foundation next year if we don't go up) and a number of players who are still developing and will be better next season anyway.

To do all that while maintaining play-off challenging form is very impressive. We could go up this year, but if we don't we'll be in a very strong position to challenge next season.
 
We have had two very bad runs of form in 2023. Last 8 games of 22/23 and first 7 of 23/24. Keep the form of the other periods and we make the play offs. Still too many “Typical Boro” results to get automatic spot
 
If action had been taken against the cheats last year then Boro would be in the Premier League now.
 
It's automatic promotion form if Chelsea and city both get relegated due to financial irregularities and there are four automatic promotion slots. (y)
If action had been taken against the cheats last year then Boro would be in the Premier League now.

They'd replace one of the otherwise relegated teams, they wouldn't promote more.

It's probably the only chance Burnley have of staying up.
 
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