BOE Rate 5.25%

I am not an economist, but if we have interest rates at around 1% and inflation at around 10% we have a major problem. There an enormous incentive to borrow @1% and buy stuff like housing/collectables/Bitcoin/gold and watch it rise. I think that was the situation in mid 2022.

To me the ideal position is to have interest rates just above inflation. It all about balance.

5% interest rates are tough on first time buyers and young buyers, but house inflation above 10% is probably worse certainly for first time buyers as it puts house buying out of their reach.
House affordability is really dictated by supply and demand, not house prices and mortgage prices. There is a finite amount of houses and a house being £250k and dropping 10% to £225k because interest rates have gone from 2% to 5% won't make it more affordable for new buyers. It makes it less affordable. If you can't afford to buy when house prices are high and interest rates are low then you can't afford to buy when the opposite is true either. To be able to afford you have to increase your relative income (or we need to increase supply).

E.g. £250k house, 10% deposit (£25k), over 30 years at 2% would be £832pm. £225k, £22.5k deposit, over 30 years at 5% would be £1,087pm. Over 5 years that's £49,920 vs £65,220 and over 30 years it's £300k vs £391k. House prices would have to drop by nearly 30% for houses to be as affordable at 5% as they were at 2%.

Interest rates matter more when house prices rises are taken into context. This is why the argument that the older generations have about 12% interest rates in the 80s aren't comparable. Average house prices were much lower. A big percentage of a small number is less than a small percentage of a big number. Even comparing to the last time we were at 5% in 2008 the average house price has gone up from £180k to £260k. 5% per year on those figures are £9k and £13k, which is an increase in annual mortgage payments of 44%.

All increasing the interest rate is doing is whacking up costs significantly for people with mortgages on top of all the other cost pressures they have with an inflation rate at 10% and without wages keeping up.
 
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