Anybody still think that we will turn this around?

[CarrickBall]

That comes from hard work on the training field IMO. Prior to Sunderland, I thought we’d been playing some really good football. Reading aside(I didn’t see that match). Our issues were stupid mistakes, which can be coached out on the training field.

We’ve now started playing it long, which seems stupid. We’re not a long ball team. This has complicated matters.

So my hope is that the manager sits them down over the next couple of weeks, in the break, and explains to them why they need to go back to playing in the style they were playing in, and why if they keep doing that and stay concentrated the results will come. That’s what I hope.

Much easier said than done, obviously. But it definitely can be done.

Do you think Huddersfield can make the Play-Offs this season?

Taking into account the group of players they have that got in the Play-Offs last season.

I also don't see how a manager can 'coach out' individual moments of madness and individual mistakes? Tell them not to run the ball into your own box and fall over?

Some of our players have very low footballing IQ. Thick as a whale omelette.

 

[MolteniArcore]

Yeah, I think we can. Win a few games and we'll be up there. It's a strange league.

I'll be panicking if by the time we play Huddersfield we are still in the same position and if we were I'd be sacking him. For me he has 5 games to save his job.

 

[CarrickBall]

Last season finishing 6th needed 75 points or 1.63 points per game. We're 9 games in and we've got 9 points. To get to 75 points this season we need to be at 1.78 points per game (PPG) for the remaining 37 games. That is what was needed to finish 3rd last season. We're nowhere near the 3rd best team in the league. We have to improve our PPG from 1.00 to 1.78 and that is just to finish with 75 points which was needed for 6th place last season (77 the year before (1.84 PPG needed), 74 is the average so 1.76 PPG. It has been as low as 68 (1.59 PPG) but it's also been as high as 80 (1.92 PPG) for a 6th place finish. To do what Forest did last season and finish with 80 points would be 1.92 PPG which isn't far off what Fulham managed at 1.96 PPG.

So basically we need to be as good as a team that would finish in the top 3 for the rest of the season just to make it into the playoffs or hope it is a really low number that is needed to get into the playoffs this year.

This.

 

[viv_andersons_nana]

Do you think Huddersfield can make the Play-Offs this season?

Taking into account the group of players they have that got in the Play-Offs last season.

I also don't see how a manager can 'coach out' individual moments of madness and individual mistakes? Tell them not to run the ball into your own box and fall over?

Some of our players have very low footballing IQ. Thick as a whale omelette.

Yes to both questions.

Our mistakes have been allowing players to nip into a gap and score a rebound or read a bounce(Watford and Stoke), or p*ss poor tackles(McNair). These can be ironed out IMO. This group of players did it last season. That’s my point, in that the manager can show them proof of how they’ve played previously and why we can reproduce that. We were a really difficult team to play against for a big chunk of last season under Wilder.

As for Huddersfield, they’ve lost O’Brien, Toffolo, maybe one or two others I’ve missed. And their manager. That’s quite a bit different from Boro. But you’d say pretty much any team is capable of putting a run together IMO. A sensible coach, a tightening up, a tweak, a player hitting form.

This is the beauty of the Championship. The three wealthiest clubs will almost always be dominating at the top but below that it’s a free for all as teams can aim for 4th, 5th and 6th place. The season is very, very rarely dead for Boro going into March. I don’t see why this one would or will be any different.

*edited to change Pritchard for O’Brien!

 

[changingman]

Absolutely, my answer would be different if we had been playing appalling every game but we've limited our poor performances to a few halves here and there (and even those games we should have got something from).

It's statistically unlikely that we can continue to perform well (better than the opposition) all season and not pick up results.

Automatic is possibly out of the equation, although I always thought that was a steep ask this season anyway.

Our xG has us 10th at the moment

 

[BoroMart]

Generally it's between 10-14 defeats for play-off contenders.

Agreed that's the norm, but there have been a few 15 and even a 16 (Leicester) in the last 15 years.

Go back further and Reading got in with 17 defeats. The record at this tier seems to be Brighton with 18 defeats in 90-91.

It's not over yet, but we need to start winning very quickly. We have a very favourable run of about 11 games, where we are capable of winning any of them. If we get through that with no more than 2 defeats, then we are back on track. Well partially we would need to win probably 6 at least of those.

Can we win 6 from Rotherham, Birmingham, Blackburn, Huddersfield, Bristol at Home, and Coventry, Millwall, Wigan, Preston, Hull, Blackpool away? I think so, with a few tweaks.

 

[BoroMart]

As for Huddersfield, they’ve lost Pritchard, Toffolo, maybe one or two others I’ve missed. And their manager. That’s quite a bit different from Boro. But you’d say pretty much any team is capable of putting a run together IMO. A sensible coach, a tightening up, a tweak, a player hitting form.

O'brian, their best player

 

[Andy_W]

I do.

I still see us in top six come the end of the season and CW in charge.

I think we will turn it around, largely as I don't think there is that much to turn around, but my expectations have been lowered, not through performances as such, there's been some bad halfs, but also some good half, and we've not really had a shocker for a full game yet, or been battered.

I had faith in the earlier games, that we were doing the right things, and just not getting what we deserved, and were still light on two strikers and a good midfielder or two.

I think now we have Muniz in, once we get Steffen, Chuba and Lenihan back we will return to playing well again, and hopefully get what we deserve.

Hopefully, Mowatt and Luongo do an ok job as filling in, but I'm not convinced either should be starting.

I don't think we particularly deserved the wins against Swansea or Sunderland, but suppose that makes up for some of the earlier season getting less than we deserved. I still see us as hard done by overall mind.

I was hoping for top 3, on the assumption we would bring in a midfielder and two strikers who Wilder wanted, but we sold Tav, and then needed 2 midfielders and two strikers, but still thought we would get those.

Effectively we've maybe got in half of what we critically needed, we needed 4/4 and got 1 (muniz) + 0.5 (mowatt) + 0.5 (luongo) + 0 (striker). So I think on that basis, the best we can hope for is low playoffs unless we get some really good additions in January. Realistically though, we probably won't perform at our max, soon enough, and won't get in what we want in Jan (who does), so my current estimation is about 6-8th.

I'm basing the above on the league being similar standard to last year, but I'm not convinced it is, there's no particular team I would be afraid of, and we've already played some of the harder games, and have an easier run for the next 11.

We're still only 5 points from 5th and two points from the top half, so nothing to start crying about yet.

 

[BoroMart]

We have to improve our PPG from 1.00 to 1.78 and that is just to finish with 75 points

Thing is that 1 ppg is over a small data set, can turn around very quickly. Win at the weekend for example and it turns into 1.2 ppg. That's almost 1/3rd of it clawed back. We need 4 wins on the bounce to get back to about 178ppg. Winnable games coming up, if we can cut out the mistakes.

 

[CarrickBall]

Absolutely, my answer would be different if we had been playing appalling every game but we've limited our poor performances to a few halves here and there (and even those games we should have got something from).

It's statistically unlikely that we can continue to perform well (better than the opposition) all season and not pick up results.

Automatic is possibly out of the equation, although I always thought that was a steep ask this season anyway.

Our xG has us 10th at the moment

It's been done to death on here but I don't think we are playing better than the opposition.

The only game we've been much better than the opposition and not won this term, in my opinion, is Stoke.

If you can't keep the ball out of your own net, defend properly, keep switched on in critical moments, miss chance after chance, manage the game when in a winning position.. then you eventually get what you deserve. Not a lot.

Playing well is keeping clean sheets, scoring goals and winning games. Coulda, woulda, shouldas mean nothing to that table.

 

[BoroMart]

It's been done to death on here but I don't think we are playing better than the opposition.

The only game we've been much better than the opposition and not won this term, in my opinion, is Stoke.

xG tells a different story. We've had better chances in all our games. We've dominated possession in most games too. The difference is we've not been clinical in both boxes

 

[allied_assault]

From the start I didn't think we'd seriously challenge for the top two, and if we got in the play offs it'd be one of those "who's sat in 6th when the music stops" things; then it's up for grabs.

I actually think we've got a pretty average team propped up by a couple of marquee players; and I didn't think we'd miss Tav as much. The central midfield is a mess; identikit players taking up space who can't drive the team forward and relying on a 34 year old to play 46 games, and we seem unable to consistently defend. Couple of injuries, suspensions and we've got real problems. The one bright spot is that we might finally have found a striker albeit on loan who can score the 15 or so that we need rather than do it by committee.

It'd take an almighty effort to get relegated I think, but it feels like - unless we start winning and playing well for 90 minutes rather than in spots of 20 minutes - another season where it's drifting away again.

Doesn't that go for every team in the Champo
Average teams with a couple of marquee players atomic?

 

[CarrickBall]

xG tells a different story. We've had better chances in all our games. We've dominated possession in most games too. The difference is we've not been clinical in both boxes

XG isn't a stat that gets you points mate. You could create 100 chances a game and have 80% possession but if you don't score enough goals to win games because your defence is as good as a kite with a hole in it, you're ****ed.

I guess it depends what you class as 'playing well' doesn't it.

Conceding every single game this season bar one isn't us playing well.

If you're not clinical in both boxes, are you 'playing well'?

 

[Otto42]

That comes from hard work on the training field IMO. Prior to Sunderland, I thought we’d been playing some really good football. Reading aside(I didn’t see that match). Our issues were stupid mistakes, which can be coached out on the training field.

We’ve now started playing it long, which seems stupid. We’re not a long ball team. This has complicated matters.

So my hope is that the manager sits them down over the next couple of weeks, in the break, and explains to them why they need to go back to playing in the style they were playing in, and why if they keep doing that and stay concentrated the results will come. That’s what I hope.

Much easier said than done, obviously. But it definitely can be done.

We tend to play it long when Fry plays, Wilder identified this earlier in the season, but he's playing while Lenihan is out. It has also coincided with Roberts starting in goal, who while a decent keeper isn't a sweeper keeper type even of the Joe Lumley standard. If we are to play it out from the back the keeper is a vital option and the players don't see Roberts as an option for retaining possession

 

[Hap]

I think we're miles off, but I can't see why we're worse now than we were last season. I don't think we have that much less quality now, compared to then.

Tav is a miss, but he never looked like being the heartbeat of the team and numerous posters felt he didn't offer enough at the time anyway.

We've upgraded the keeper, could play the same back three if we wanted to. Upgraded LWB. Only lost Tav from the midfield from the three probable starters, and moved on 3 loaned strikers that didn't score enough,
I can't understand why we're leaking goals. It seems like individual errors and a loss of concentration. It's weird.

 

[Andy_W]

XG isn't a stat that gets you points mate. You could create 100 chances a game and have 80% possession but if you don't score enough goals to win games because your defence is as good as a kite with a hole in it, you're ****ed.

I guess it depends what you class as 'playing well' doesn't it.

Conceding every single game this season bar one isn't us playing well.

xG Pts is often very well correlated to points though, especially over longer timeframes, 1,2,3,4 and 5th are all in the top 7 of net xG points. Us and West Brom are the other two teams in the xG Pts top 7, we're second and them 3rd. Luton are sat in 18th and they should be up there too, they were 6th last year. It's fine margins sometimes between games, but some of these games have not been close at all xG wise.

We have the largest variance of expected position, and current position, 15 places, West Brom are 13 places, Luton 13, going off last year, none of those 3 should be expected to be where they are. The average is 6 places, largely made up of 3/4 of teams being very close to where they should be, and some anomalies.

The highest variance of position in the prem is 10 places, West Ham, a couple 7 places, and the rest are largely within 3/4 places.

The point is we should be outscoring even what we're letting in. That's not the fault of the defence, it's poor shot conversion (we're second bottom on Shots on target %). Teams playing **** don't create anything, we're just not finishing what we should, and not getting on the end of crosses enough (we've put in the 3rd most crosses (behind West Brom and Luton, funnily enough), and conceded the 4th least crosses (one of those better than us has only played 6 games), the other two are West Brom and Norwich.
We've conceded the 3rd least shots (only WBA and Sheff Utd better)
Our save % of shots against us is 4th bottom

I wonder how the WBA fans feel, they look to be having a similar season to us, and we know they're a good side and with good players. They've not been beat by more than one goal either, and they've had 6 draws. Fine margins to having much more points than the table shows.

The xGA, has us around mid-way, for what we should expect to concede, for the chances we've given away, yet we've conceded the most. I don't think our keepers have been that bad at shot-stopping overall (but I think they've had hard shots to deal with), if we had let in some absolute howlers then yeah, maybe blame some of it on the keepers, but it's not been the case. Maybe the last game Roberts could have had one or two of those, but not much blame for previous games of either keeper, and everyone seems to rate both keepers better than anything we've had recently.
Yes, we would like that xGA to be lower, but we've had some shocking decisions against us too and been unlucky with a couple of chances (goals), basically some of the best chances shouldn't have even been chances.

There were some major errors against Cardiff mind, but that doesn't cover the other 8 games. We still have to allow for mistakes though, every team which has ever played in this league has made plenty at the back.

The table is reliant on points, and points are reliant on what you score and what you don't, and what the oppo score and what they don't, and they're reliant on what chances and crosses you put in, and what chances and crosses you give away. The foundations are good, but it's just not translating through to the end.

 

[BoroMart]

XG isn't a stat that gets you points mate. You could create 100 chances a game and have 80% possession but if you don't score enough goals to win games because your defence is as good as a kite with a hole in it, you're ****ed.

It does tell you the story of how good the chances you create and concede are. So as a tool for reviewing a match it's pretty useful. Certainly better than shots on target, possession, or any other stat. It tells us that we have created lots of chances but not been putting quite enough of them away. It tells us we don't concede lots of chances but have conceded a lot of goals, thus we have made individual errors or been the victim of a few worldies which will even out.

Agree that conceding every game bar one is poor, but that should be balanced with scoring every game bar one not being poor. It's pretty obvious that we've had 3 big ref errors go against us costing us 4 points too, which would have us sitting 8th if the referee hadn't screwed up. So there are plenty of reasons for optimism that this will turn

 

[Andy_W]

We tend to play it long when Fry plays, Wilder identified this earlier in the season, but he's playing while Lenihan is out. It has also coincided with Roberts starting in goal, who while a decent keeper isn't a sweeper keeper type even of the Joe Lumley standard. If we are to play it out from the back the keeper is a vital option and the players don't see Roberts as an option for retaining possession

Yup, I think Fry and Roberts have been trying to do better on this mind, they've certainly been doing it less and less, albeit still not as little as Lenihan and Steffen.

McNair has been doing it now too though, but I think this is largely down to form/ confidence with him, he doesn't look the same this year, he should be better on the ball than he has been.

 

[viv_andersons_nana]

It does tell you the story of how good the chances you create and concede are. So as a tool for reviewing a match it's pretty useful. Certainly better than shots on target, possession, or any other stat. It tells us that we have created lots of chances but not been putting quite enough of them away. It tells us we don't concede lots of chances but have conceded a lot of goals, thus we have made individual errors or been the victim of a few worldies which will even out

You can’t say that! It’s Wilder’s fault! It’s the system! He’s lost the fans, the dressing room and his marbles. He has to go if we don’t win tomorrow.

Obviously that’s a flippant comment but there’s a sense that people have already decided on Wilder now. He’s on borrowed time in their minds. It’s a shame IMO.

 

[Sheriff_John_Bunnell_ret]

Of course we can. Look at the run when wilder first came in. This teams confidence can go up as easily as down. Stitch three wins together and they'll think they're brazil70. Of course we could head further down the death spiral and have Chris Houghton in place by November. Who can say.