Any stats lovers know this.....

Caesium137

Caesium137

Well-known member
...how many points playing as a back three/five and how many as a back four?

And how many points per game with Spence and without?

I can't decide if it's just my imagination or rose tinted glasses looking back that we always seem more comfortable and better balanced as a back three/five. Are there hard stats to back this feeling up?
 
Caesium137 said:
...how many points playing as a back three/five and how many as a back four?

And how many points per game with Spence and without?

I can't decide if it's just my imagination or rose tinted glasses looking back that we always seem more comfortable and better balanced as a back three/five. Are there hard stats to back this feeling up?
Click to expand...

Thanks for pointing me in the direction to this thread. I think you will be right for sure.
 
Boros whoscored page breaks down the formations used and the number of wins, losses and draws. Its near the bottom.
 
Just checked using the whoscored figures. As luck would have it we have played 21 games with a back 4 and 21 with a back 3/5:

W D L F A GD CS PTS
Back 3/5: 6 8 7 18 21 -3 7 26
Back 4 : 5 6 10 24 32 -8 6 21

So back 3/5 is better but not hugely. We would be a couple of places higher if we had played the full season back 3/5 with those figures.

I heard Warnock waxing over Tav after the match today, purring about him in training. So thought I would check out when he starts:
PLY W D L PTS
with Tav: 24 7 9 8 30
without : 18 4 5 9 17

Pretty similar impact as playing a back 3/5. I know this thread is talking about Spence and he is a talent, but I think Tav with the right coaching could be as big.

Sometimes you see strange results from these analysis, that you really don't expect, last season, most people will be surprised to see that Besic starting was a really important factor. He started 30 games, and we got 53 points from those games, but only 20 points from the 16 games he didn't play. Might be a statistical anomaly, or maybe he did the dirty work we didn't realise. I would certainly have preferred him to some of our current midfield.
 
BoroMart said:
Just checked using the whoscored figures. As luck would have it we have played 21 games with a back 4 and 21 with a back 3/5:

W D L F A GD CS PTS
Back 3/5: 6 8 7 18 21 -3 7 26
Back 4 : 5 6 10 24 32 -8 6 21

So back 3/5 is better but not hugely. We would be a couple of places higher if we had played the full season back 3/5 with those figures.

I heard Warnock waxing over Tav after the match today, purring about him in training. So thought I would check out when he starts:
PLY W D L PTS
with Tav: 24 7 9 8 30
without : 18 4 5 9 17

Pretty similar impact as playing a back 3/5. I know this thread is talking about Spence and he is a talent, but I think Tav with the right coaching could be as big.

Sometimes you see strange results from these analysis, that you really don't expect, last season, most people will be surprised to see that Besic starting was a really important factor. He started 30 games, and we got 53 points from those games, but only 20 points from the 16 games he didn't play. Might be a statistical anomaly, or maybe he did the dirty work we didn't realise. I would certainly have preferred him to some of our current midfield.
Click to expand...

Cheers Boromart, some interesting points there.
 
Is it just me or did Woodgate 'naughty step' Djed Spence?
and did he do the same with Marcus Browne?
 
BoroMart said:
Just checked using the whoscored figures. As luck would have it we have played 21 games with a back 4 and 21 with a back 3/5:

W D L F A GD CS PTS
Back 3/5: 6 8 7 18 21 -3 7 26
Back 4 : 5 6 10 24 32 -8 6 21

So back 3/5 is better but not hugely. We would be a couple of places higher if we had played the full season back 3/5 with those figures.

I heard Warnock waxing over Tav after the match today, purring about him in training. So thought I would check out when he starts:
PLY W D L PTS
with Tav: 24 7 9 8 30
without : 18 4 5 9 17

Pretty similar impact as playing a back 3/5. I know this thread is talking about Spence and he is a talent, but I think Tav with the right coaching could be as big.

Sometimes you see strange results from these analysis, that you really don't expect, last season, most people will be surprised to see that Besic starting was a really important factor. He started 30 games, and we got 53 points from those games, but only 20 points from the 16 games he didn't play. Might be a statistical anomaly, or maybe he did the dirty work we didn't realise. I would certainly have preferred him to some of our current midfield.
Click to expand...

I think a plus point from Besic was that when he was playing we had more possession as he was good at keeping hold of it, sometimes he kept hold of it to long. I thought he was a decent player for this level and if he ever came back he would do well again.
 
Agreed BBG, statistics in a sport like football must be contextualised and validated with other observable evidence that isn't captured in the stats.

I did some stats on the old site about Britt, and why it is pointless playing him unless you can get good balls to him within 8 yards of the goal. I watched his entire championship goals for us and Forest, categorised them as either within 8 yards, within the penalty box and outside. His within 8 yards finishing is good but not great, and the vast majority of his goals were in that zone. I compared that to other strikers in both prem and championship. His finishing % within close range is actually better than players like Kane and Aguero....although they are playing against better keepers. Anyway, where his finishing is poor is beyond 8 yards but inside the box. His rate of goalscoring is far lower than other championship players, IIRC some of them had 2-3x better finishing success. Outside the box, Britt rarely shoots. So you need to get Britt in the box, you need to get other players in too, otherwise he will be double marked, and you need to get quality balls in....otherwise don't play him.
 
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