Another financial crash on the way ?

Funky_Chicken

Funky_Chicken

Well-known member
Got to be a strong possibility now. The oil price has dropped heavily, share prices crashing, things seem to be escalating very quickly globally now as travel is effected. Tough times ahead for the whole planet it would seem 😩



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Funky_Chicken said:
Got to be a strong possibility now. The oil price has dropped heavily, share prices crashing, things seem to be escalating very quickly globally now as travel is effected. Tough times ahead for the whole planet it would seem 😩



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Yes, 100% certain unfortunately. You could tell that Coronavirus was a 'thing' and a genuine concern when the financial markets started getting worried a few weeks ago. Sod the number of dead, the FTSE and Dow Jones are (cynically-speaking) probably better indicators of the real risk.
 
We have two options:

take action, self-isolation, social-distancing and watch the economy crash as we stop the spread of the virus.

Or we let it take its course and kill off most of the the old and sick people in our lives.

Either way its pretty grim, and the people who want to believe its not really a big issue are making it a bigger issue in saying so.
 
It’s already a crash. The market is scared and running for the hills. Take heed from Warren Buffet. Markets will fall but in the long term the equity markets are still the best investment.
 
Good advice that. True that people self isolating and not working will destroy the economy. If enough do it.
 
Even if everyone works from home, which many can, proper social-distancing leads to people not using cafes, restaurants, corner shops, taxis, no one will get anything non-essential done to their house, or go on holidays/trips or to their local clubs/events. Household economic footprints will shrink enormously. If most people do this for long enough, the economy is going right off a cliff. Probably already is in Northern Italy which is impacting the economy of mainland Europe.

It could easily happen here long enough for small businesses to go under and redundancies to start taking place on mass. Economic spiral becomes a self-fulfilling event. I worry that people are closing their eyes to this. The alternative is just to let the most vulnerable in society die and 'carry on'.
 
People on the stock market are not closing their eyes, as said the main UK index is down 20% from its peak.

The virus will hit profits in 2020, no one knows by how much.

What we do know about flu like viruses is that they come quite quickly and go quite quickly. We may get 3 months of disruption and a few thousand UK deaths, but my guess is that it would have calmed down by early June in the UK.

So far on the positive interest rates have dropped and are likely to drop further. Raw material prices have dropped which benefits many more consumers than producers.

Warren Buffett may have said last week be careful buying, but he also said repeatly be greedy when others are fearful...and they are certainly fearful now.
 
The container ports on the West coast of the USA were reporting a 25% drop in trade. That is likely to lead to a recession on it's own.
 
SmallTown said:
Called it
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This is a disgrace in so many ways..
Firstly traders have known for a while that a big d*ck recession is round the corner they are using this situation to get out without taking the blame and making money on put options left right and centre.

Even if you don't believe me and genuinely believe this is all due to the virus... In that event how scummy do you have to be to sell off everything, compounding the situation.
 
Tories will do what they always do - look after their chums an big business first. They won’t be interested in doing what’s best for the country



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If brexit wasn't bad enough, then this is going to knock hell out of our economy and seriously hinder our recovery, which was always going to be exceptionally difficult.

It's times like this when solidarity and working together is needed, not jumping ship.

Obvisouly by the above I don't mean everyone physically going round a load of countries, meeting and greating and speading the virus, I mean more so by co-operating through digital channels.

Can't imagine there's going to be a big swathe of people/ countries wanting to sort out trade deals, with a big crash and virus taking hold. Could end up with a lot of companies having to trade on WTO for a long while, which will mean along while of being uncompetitive with eurpean companies providing the same products/ services.

Could effectively be like the perfect storm of the three below nailing us all at the same time.
Brexit
Covid-19
Market Crash
 
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