I don't see China being able to do this without both significant loss to chinese troops, destruction of Taiwan, so what's the point in owning land that has been utterly levelled, and of course facing off with the US and the inevitable trade restrictions hitting their economy. I just don't see this happening any time soon.
Many of the analysts who predicted Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine did so because they looked at it rationally like that. The were right in that Russia
shouldn't invade, but Putin did.
Partly that was because Putin's intelligence services were not looking at accurate information. That's what happens when you create a culture where speaking truth to power is dissuaded. The info that gets passed up the chain is slanted towards what people want to hear and not what they don't want to hear. So some western analysts were more informed than the top brass in the Kremlin.
Partly it was Putin looking at the West's response to his Crimea invasion, which was weak, to Afghanistan, which was weak and his assessment that the West, with it's economic self interest and divisions (exacerbated by Russian money), would not respond strongly like they did.
Partly it was Russia overestimating the Russian military capabilities and underestimating the Ukrainians military resistance capabilities and determination, combined with Western military assistance.
The biggest factor though, was simply Putin's own deep seated desire to restore Russia to it's former size and status as it had when it was the Soviet Union. He really wanted to do this, all the other factors just nudged him into thinking he could manage it.
There are parallels to be drawn with China and Taiwan. Xi definitely strongly desires Taiwan so that is the biggest factor to take into account. The question is whether he can do this. Like Putin, he had seen very little from the West re Hong Kong, Tibet and the Uighurs. There was also Crimea, Afghanistan, Syria -until Ukraine it seemed like America was withdrawing from the world militarily and economically. The West does rely on China economically to a huge degree and China has massive influence. The so called Belt and Road initiative gives them huge economic and therefore political influence all over the world.
I think America, while not officially endorsing Pelosi's trip at the White House, are putting Xi on notice that, like Ukraine, they are not uninterested in Taiwan, which does hold strategic economic importance to the USA. It puts doubts in his mind that this far more difficult military operation, which would require massive overwhelming superiority of not just numbers, but firepower, as well as being a logistical nightmare, could be a big gamble. China's military has not really been tested, their performance is an unknown. America's is not.
There would be big economic repercussions for the West, but also for China too. Ukraine has shown the West is prepared to put up with them at least for now and to a degree.
Ukraine has also shown that, perhaps, the West might have been napping recently, but it's been roused and when it is, it can still get very serious. An eastern power expanded it's influence in the 1930's, as China remembers only too well, but when it went too far in 1941 the world saw just how serious America and it's allies could get. They will be wary of making that mistake.
I think Xi played Putin. He may have wanted just one more test of the West to see what would happen. China didn't support the Russian invasion, but nor did Xi dissuade Putin.
This Pelosi move is smart, they know she is a big player in the Democratic Party and though not officially in the Biden administration her influence on delivering and directing policy is huge. She is a very savvy political operator and this has given the Chinese a lot to think about and a lot of analysing to do.
www.bbc.com
