A short video on Sweden and Covid

Alot of what you right there is highly questionable as death rates have been increasing over the past 10 years in many places including the UK (I cannot say specifically in Sweden), I'd also take your road traffic accidents comments lightly without data behind it. It looks like rona has almost completely displaced the flu which is interesting because you could use those figures to say all manner of opinion.

I take your point regarding the UN projections though it was just a swift Google on my part to find some projected figures. Maybe someone with more time than me can delve into the numbers and give a more accurate answer. That said when I look at life in Sweden compared to ours I know who I'm envious right now

Debating I have no problem with you see. 👍🏻

You posted a table with death rates decreasing though :LOL:
But yes, the decrease is slowing on your table, no idea about elsewhere, I've not looked.
I didn't look into RTA's or any of that, as I just don't see how deaths could stay higher with movements down by around 30%, it's just common sense, but all of this should come out, later down the line. The way I see it, is it's effectively impossible for deaths to go up, if movements are down, under normal circumstance. If they can't go up, then the chance of them coming down greatly increases, unless there was tons of people with death by DIY. That's been one of my points about the UK, our figures are crap, but they are so badly underestimated it's criminal.

We're on like 60k excess deaths, but the lock down might have saved about 10k deaths (made up number) from people not getting flu or other transmissible diseases, RTA's or whatever. So really with a lock down we should have been a net -10k, but we ended up a +60k, that's a 70k swing and we're putting 40k down as covid, it's bull$hit. At least Sweden's excess deaths are their covid numbers, but I wouldn't expect anything less, good on them for being honest.

The rest of this isn't really aimed at you, just more of a follow on....but I welcome the debate (y)

But for the UK, if we're bad at controlling covid infections (which we are) which leads to 43k dead (revised down number), then hospital treatment for every other problem gets worse, it has to, as it can't get better, unless it's just cutting out the GP/ A&E timewasters etc (but that's probably not a massive impact). Those 70k dead are either covid, covid playing a major part, or have limited others getting treated for other things as the hospitals are rammed. Either way it's Covid, all of it, if you take Covid away, they all go down.

I keep hearing about people saying people have missed cancer appointments and the like, yet they're saying we shouldn't have lock downs, it makes no sense at all. If we don't lock down, the virus gets worse (it has to as it can't get better, it's impossible), that means the nurses either treat the people that can't breathe or they leave the none breathers outside the hospital to die and start booking appointments for other things not quite as imminent, it's not going to happen, in any walk of life the highest immediate risk gets taken care of first, and there's not enough nurses to do both. Yes, some form of cancers are more lethal, but if every cancer sufferer got covid, then their survival rate goes down massively, it as to, as it can't go up. This is where "underlying conditions" comes in. They might have lived 2 years longer if they didn't get covid, and they might have lived another 3 years longer that that if the hospital wasn't full of covid patients which limited their appointment opportunities.

I hear a lot about lock downs being bad for mental health and suicides etc, which it probably is, of course, but there's no worse an impact to most than losing someone. Most I know would rather lose their job or take a pay cut, than a grandparent or parent before their time, but it's a bad, bad choice for those who are skint, so they should have been supported better.
 
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You posted a table with death rates decreasing though :LOL:
But yes, the decrease is slowing on your table, no idea about elsewhere, I've not looked.
I didn't look into RTA's or any of that, as I just don't see how deaths could stay higher with movements down by around 30%, it's just common sense, but all of this should come out, later down the line. The way I see it, is it's effectively impossible for deaths to go up, if movements are down, under normal circumstance. If they can't go up, then the chance of them coming down greatly increases, unless there was tons of people with death by DIY. That's been one of my points about the UK, our figures are crap, but they are so badly underestimated it's criminal.

We're on like 60k excess deaths, but the lock down might have saved about 10k deaths (made up number) from people not getting flu or other transmissible diseases, RTA's or whatever. So really with a lock down we should have been a net -10k, but we ended up a +60k, that's a 70k swing and we're putting 40k down as covid, it's bull$hit. At least Sweden's excess deaths are their covid numbers, but I wouldn't expect anything less, good on them for being honest.

The rest of this isn't really aimed at you, just more of a follow on....but I welcome the debate (y)

But for the UK, if we're bad at controlling covid infections (which we are) which leads to 43k dead (revised down number), then hospital treatment for every other problem gets worse, it has to, as it can't get better, unless it's just cutting out the GP/ A&E timewasters etc (but that's probably not a massive impact). Those 70k dead are either covid, covid playing a major part, or have limited others getting treated for other things as the hospitals are rammed. Either way it's Covid, all of it, if you take Covid away, they all go down.

I keep hearing about people saying people have missed cancer appointments and the like, yet they're saying we shouldn't have lock downs, it makes no sense at all. If we don't lock down, the virus gets worse (it has to as it can't get better, it's impossible), that means the nurses either treat the people that can't breathe or they leave the none breathers outside the hospital to die and start booking appointments for other things not quite as imminent, it's not going to happen, in any walk of life the highest immediate risk gets taken care of first, and there's not enough nurses to do both. Yes, some form of cancers are more lethal, but if every cancer sufferer got covid, then their survival rate goes down massively, it as to, as it can't go up. This is where "underlying conditions" comes in. They might have lived 2 years longer if they didn't get covid, and they might have lived another 3 years longer if the hospital wasn't full of covid patients which limited their appointment opportunities.

I hear a lot about lock downs being bad for mental health and suicides etc, which it probably is, of course, but there's no worse an impact to most than losing someone. Most I know would rather lose their job or take a pay cut, than a grandparent or parent before their time, but it's a bad, bad choice for those who are skint, so they should have been supported better.
Sweden's announced Covid-19 deaths are higher than their excess deaths.
 
@Statto1 you completely right off all the lockdown deaths, cancer deaths, deaths from poverty, deaths from increased stress impacting other diseases, other death from lack of access to care.

Your excess deaths maths is complete nonsense.

Your post @bear66 regarding Sweden's shows that their health service wasn't switched off in the way we did, you could reasonably argue that their excess deaths being lower than covid deaths is what happens when you don't scaremonger and switch off an entire populations health service.
 
'you completely right off all the lockdown deaths, cancer deaths, deaths from poverty, deaths from increased stress impacting other diseases, other death from lack of access to care'

And you over emphasise, without any figures to back it up.

Death from poverty FFS, this is the UK, we've voted to increase poverty levels more times than not in the last four decades

Cancer deaths, well they weren't going to happen were they?

I can only speak from personal experience. I've had 2 ops, one to come (different department) since lockdown started, and 4 biopsies. It may be that our local management levels are better than most but I'm not so sure. I'd like to see the evidence of that.

Some of the scare stories with regards to what's happening in hospitals was bordering on the Corbyn pre-election nonsense.

As for your references to Sweden, look at the big picture for once. Look at how each country has been managed over decades, that's why they can cope and we can't.
 
You posted a table with death rates decreasing though :LOL:
But yes, the decrease is slowing on your table, no idea about elsewhere, I've not looked.
I didn't look into RTA's or any of that, as I just don't see how deaths could stay higher with movements down by around 30%, it's just common sense, but all of this should come out, later down the line. The way I see it, is it's effectively impossible for deaths to go up, if movements are down, under normal circumstance. If they can't go up, then the chance of them coming down greatly increases, unless there was tons of people with death by DIY. That's been one of my points about the UK, our figures are crap, but they are so badly underestimated it's criminal.

We're on like 60k excess deaths, but the lock down might have saved about 10k deaths (made up number) from people not getting flu or other transmissible diseases, RTA's or whatever. So really with a lock down we should have been a net -10k, but we ended up a +60k, that's a 70k swing and we're putting 40k down as covid, it's bull$hit. At least Sweden's excess deaths are their covid numbers, but I wouldn't expect anything less, good on them for being honest.

The rest of this isn't really aimed at you, just more of a follow on....but I welcome the debate (y)

But for the UK, if we're bad at controlling covid infections (which we are) which leads to 43k dead (revised down number), then hospital treatment for every other problem gets worse, it has to, as it can't get better, unless it's just cutting out the GP/ A&E timewasters etc (but that's probably not a massive impact). Those 70k dead are either covid, covid playing a major part, or have limited others getting treated for other things as the hospitals are rammed. Either way it's Covid, all of it, if you take Covid away, they all go down.

I keep hearing about people saying people have missed cancer appointments and the like, yet they're saying we shouldn't have lock downs, it makes no sense at all. If we don't lock down, the virus gets worse (it has to as it can't get better, it's impossible), that means the nurses either treat the people that can't breathe or they leave the none breathers outside the hospital to die and start booking appointments for other things not quite as imminent, it's not going to happen, in any walk of life the highest immediate risk gets taken care of first, and there's not enough nurses to do both. Yes, some form of cancers are more lethal, but if every cancer sufferer got covid, then their survival rate goes down massively, it as to, as it can't go up. This is where "underlying conditions" comes in. They might have lived 2 years longer if they didn't get covid, and they might have lived another 3 years longer that that if the hospital wasn't full of covid patients which limited their appointment opportunities.

I hear a lot about lock downs being bad for mental health and suicides etc, which it probably is, of course, but there's no worse an impact to most than losing someone. Most I know would rather lose their job or take a pay cut, than a grandparent or parent before their time, but it's a bad, bad choice for those who are skint, so they should have been supported better.

Stato
Your comment ‘the virus has to get worse’ is worth some scrutiny.
It is a virus, for sure, which has capacity to do great harm to those vulnerable (remember average age of death is 82).
There are those who have given reasons for the March surge and then predicted a small blip (bigger than normal) in the winter to coincide with ‘normal’ Flu/respiratory deaths.
Worth bearing in mind up to 9th Oct (latest figs available) deaths are 1.5% up on 5 year average - it’s not significant,
We’ve been out of lockdown for around 6 months and some people are saying ‘where are the excess deaths’.
Others say ‘they are coming’.... time will tell of course but, they have been saying that since September.

In summary you could say its a virus that we just have to live with a la flu.

If not we are vaccine dependent in the full knowledge that an impact of a vaccine (much like Flu’s) is a bit arbitrary dependent on the behaviour, over time, of the vaccine.
 
'you completely right off all the lockdown deaths, cancer deaths, deaths from poverty, deaths from increased stress impacting other diseases, other death from lack of access to care'

And you over emphasise, without any figures to back it up.

Death from poverty FFS, this is the UK, we've voted to increase poverty levels more times than not in the last four decades

Cancer deaths, well they weren't going to happen were they?

I can only speak from personal experience. I've had 2 ops, one to come (different department) since lockdown started, and 4 biopsies. It may be that our local management levels are better than most but I'm not so sure. I'd like to see the evidence of that.

Some of the scare stories with regards to what's happening in hospitals was bordering on the Corbyn pre-election nonsense.

As for your references to Sweden, look at the big picture for once. Look at how each country has been managed over decades, that's why they can cope and we can't.

There are figures to back it up I'm not doing the legwork today.

Your comment about cancer deaths is beyond stupid, they wouldn't be happening had they been diagnosed and then treatment provided.

I have no quarrel with you regarding the NHS they've been underfunded for a decade at least. Also your comment on poverty I don't disagree but it's getting far worse right now due to lockdown policy and there's a direct link between increases in poverty and death.

I can see the big picture clearly you make the mistake in thinking I in anyway sympathise with the Tories, I don't.

You refuse to take anything on board and just think the virus is the scariest thing of all time. It's not. See it's an easy game to play.
 
There are figures to back it up I'm not doing the legwork today.

Your comment about cancer deaths is beyond stupid, they wouldn't be happening had they been diagnosed and then treatment provided.

I have no quarrel with you regarding the NHS they've been underfunded for a decade at least. Also your comment on poverty I don't disagree but it's getting far worse right now due to lockdown policy and there's a direct link between increases in poverty and death.

I can see the big picture clearly you make the mistake in thinking I in anyway sympathise with the Tories, I don't.

You refuse to take anything on board and just think the virus is the scariest thing of all time. It's not. See it's an easy game to play.

As stated, I've had 4 biopsies since lockdown started, new cancers are being investigated and treated, your rhetoric doesn't apply. The only thing stopping people from having treatment is their fear of the disease due to poor media presentation, they've gone for the sensational just about all of the time, their and the government's lack of detail had been poor, though they're now trying to put it right through advertising, informing people to report for early assesment.

Cancer deaths are not usually short term problems, there have been deaths during the crisis but how many due to lockdown we don't know as yet, nor do we know how many cancer patients would have died during that period anyway.

We agree on much but I still believe the medical experts with regards to distancing and mask wearing, I've asked the views of hospital staff and not heard anything to believe this to be untrue. Generally they're saying be careful, keep away from crowded areas,, wash your hands, keep your environment clean.

The above advice is not good news for the UK. Many in business aren't promoting it, if it's not law they say, why should they, the same goes for many customers, it's allowing premises to be overcrowded and the virus to spread. While this is going on there will be a lack of confidence in the none essential sectors from many, myself included, We need food, we don't need to go to pubs and restaurants to obtain it. Some will close, they will re-open or be replaced once confidence is restored. It's a short term problem. That we're relying so much on non essential sectors is a result of long term economic neglect. It's why other countries can cope and we can't.

Not as many people are working from home as there could be, this I know from companies I've worked with and their varying approaches. This pushes people on to public transport and into long hours in enclosed spaces.

We're about to hit a crisis which will see around twice as much economic damage as Covid19. We don't have to see poverty as s result, it's a choice we will make.

What we don't need is what we're now doing, looking for a quick fix and not looking to address our long term underlying problems, we should know by now who will be the long term losers, it's not going to be those with their snouts constantly in the trough.
 
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