Current testing shows about 90:10 negative to positive.
So on that sample 10% positive.
Population 65 million so possibly 6.5 million carrying the virus in some shape or form.
It's not clear how one will apply for one or be allowed to buy one from a chemist. They are intended to allow a broader view of what's happening. I guess the 15 minute test isn't as consistent as the one the NHS carries out.They're going to sell them rather than giving them to people who need them?
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...-could-be-available-in-days-mps-told-11963509It's not clear how one will apply for one or be allowed to buy one from a chemist. They are intended to allow a broader view of what's happening. I guess the 15 minute test isn't as consistent as the one the NHS carries out.
"Widespread availability of a fingerprick test that produces results in 10 to 15 minutes is a game-changer. NHS doctors and nurses with symptoms will know immediately whether they have – or have recovered from – Covid-19, enabling them to get back to work sooner."https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...-could-be-available-in-days-mps-told-11963509
It sounds more like a test to show if you have had covid-19
Fabio, any possibility that we are further through this pandemic than we initially thought should be welcomed with open arms, but don't stop staying safe and taking precautions until this white paper has been peer reviewed and has much more academic backing than it does currently.Thanks for the replies guys. Makes sense what you say, but I still think it’s interesting and I hope (perhaps foolishly) that there is some degree of ‘not being a million miles away from the truth’ in the study.
I think it’s a given that there are many more tens, possibly hundreds of thousands of cases that we are unaware of because they simply aren’t severe enough to require hospital treatment and testing, so the drive to antibody test the general population excites me.
"Widespread availability of a fingerprick test that produces results in 10 to 15 minutes is a game-changer. NHS doctors and nurses with symptoms will know immediately whether they have – or have recovered from – Covid-19, enabling them to get back to work sooner."Not many really have an urgent 'need' for one. (Probably reassuring for health professionals). As mentioned above, it's the antibody test (showing if you've had Coronavirus) rather than a test to see if you've currently got it.
Hopefully they'll keep a decent number of the tests back, so that they can do random sample testing across the population. That could then give a better understanding of background immunity that might have been built up already.
It'll also allow medical staff to not self-isolate for no reason. 2 birds with 1 stone.Bear66, yeah, I saw you'd posted that already. It's an antibody test. You start producing antibodies as soon as you get the virus, but keep them after you're better. Even if you didn't have any symptoms.
In the context of this thread / the article / modelling, they are talking about the background level of immunity being much higher than thought, because they are suggesting that many more people have been infected already. This test should start to show that
I SERIOUSLY hope that what Sunetra Gupta says turns out to be right. That would be great news!!
It is now believed that the first case was 26 November. Any contact with someone from the Far East?In December I had what I would describe as a bout of flu symptoms, similar to what I have had before. The only difference being that I was left continuously breathless and woke up on several occasions struggling to breathe. On one occasion I shot up struggling to breathe and was literally gasping for air. The wife wanted to call an ambulance and I played it down. I put down to my years spent welding and my age. It did frighten me though and I struggled sleeping thinking about it.
I’m not saying it was the Coronavirus but I do believe some strain of it has been amongst us for some time. It use to mention corona on the back of the Dettol bottle.
At 21% we are looking at about 12 million infected, so starting to get up to big big figures.Quite a few caveats in that.
Firstly, as has been mentioned, the 90:10 figure only applies to those who have been tested not the general population. By definition, those tested have been displaying symptoms (often when presenting at hospital), so you can’t really apply that to the population at large.
Secondly, the proportion of positive tests is starting to increase. I think yesterday’s figure was 21% of all tests were positive, so that’s a sign the infection rate in the wider population is increasing.
Finally, the current tests are just a snapshot in time. Someone could easily have been negative when originally tested but then go on to contract the virus at a later date.
Again as already mentioned by others, the game changer should be these new tests which show if somebody has developed antibodies to the virus (i.e. they’ve already had it).
Quite a few caveats in that.
Firstly, as has been mentioned, the 90:10 figure only applies to those who have been tested not the general population. By definition, those tested have been displaying symptoms (often when presenting at hospital), so you can’t really apply that to the population at large.
Secondly, the proportion of positive tests is starting to increase. I think yesterday’s figure was 21% of all tests were positive, so that’s a sign the infection rate in the wider population is increasing.
Finally, the current tests are just a snapshot in time. Someone could easily have been negative when originally tested but then go on to contract the virus at a later date.
Again as already mentioned by others, the game changer should be these new tests which show if somebody has developed antibodies to the virus (i.e. they’ve already had it).
Loads of people you talk to have mentioned having unusual symptoms this winter when going down with cold or flu, surely can’t be a coincidence, people don’t make things like this up.It is now believed that the first case was 26 November. Any contact with someone from the Far East?