50% across the UK may have the virus - its been here since January at the latest.

#41
Exactly ... There's people on this thread who can't take that it may well be true (the article) because they've suggested its going to be absolutely terrible.

I for one am happy this new test which is far more efficient will soon be available and pray that the article is correct.
The fact is we may have made the most Draconian legislation in generations based not on evidence but media and social media frenzy, yes this is a serious disease for some / many people but we should always follow the evidence.

Studies in Iceland who tested vast quantities of its population showed 50% showing no symptoms at all.
I think the problem is that for the small portion of the population that gets it bad they need specialist care to hopefully avoid death and that portion is big enough to overwhelm the hospitals at its peak. You can’t be just allowing people to die because you haven’t got enough beds in multi billion pound economies where decadence is rife. At some point you have to pull your priorities as a society into line.
 
#43
At 21% we are looking at about 12 million infected, so starting to get up to big big figures.
By instinct I think it’s widespread just on the basis of the number of high profile public figures have caught it - Royalty, MPs, scientists, footballers, celebrities - it’s not exactly rare is it?
You read my second point but not the rest of my post didn’t you?

You can’t take one day’s testing results and apply them to the general population. It’s like comparing apples with combine harvesters!
 
#44
Fabio, any possibility that we are further through this pandemic than we initially thought should be welcomed with open arms, but don't stop staying safe and taking precautions until this white paper has been peer reviewed and has much more academic backing than it does currently.

Absolutely, I agree 100%. I certainly won’t be taking my eye of the ball just because one study says there might be more infected than we thought. Agree with you, there is a real danger of a false sense of security and complacency creeping in.
We’ve been going above and beyond the government guidelines for some time now, and will continue to do so, I dare say even when they are relaxed.
 
#45
You read my second point but not the rest of my post didn’t you?

You can’t take one day’s testing results and apply them to the general population. It’s like comparing apples with combine harvesters!
No I wasn’t arguing against your points, I think you are right, I was just saying that if the latest tests are showing 20% then potentially we are now at much greater numbers. I’m not a stats person and don’t pretend to be but with the only data we have available (as far as I am aware) a rough extrapolation of 10% is x million, rough extrapolation of 20% is y million. I fully accept the sample could be skewed in all sorts of ways.
 
#46
In December I had what I would describe as a bout of flu symptoms, similar to what I have had before. The only difference being that I was left continuously breathless and woke up on several occasions struggling to breathe. On one occasion I shot up struggling to breathe and was literally gasping for air. The wife wanted to call an ambulance and I played it down. I put down to my years spent welding and my age. It did frighten me though and I struggled sleeping thinking about it.

I’m not saying it was the Coronavirus but I do believe some strain of it has been amongst us for some time. It use to mention corona on the back of the Dettol bottle.
Same here, but it affected me and the wife at the back end of November. Terrible cough. Fever and pounding headache for 3 or 4 days.
 
#47
Exactly ... There's people on this thread who can't take that it may well be true (the article) because they've suggested its going to be absolutely terrible.

I for one am happy this new test which is far more efficient will soon be available and pray that the article is correct.
The fact is we may have made the most Draconian legislation in generations based not on evidence but media and social media frenzy, yes this is a serious disease for some / many people but we should always follow the evidence.

Studies in Iceland who tested vast quantities of its population showed 50% showing no symptoms at all.
Alvez, I am sure we all hope the study proves to have some merit. I have no idea why you say "there are people who can't take that this may be true" is, to be frank a load of nonsense. You then go on to say we have put draconian measure in place based not on evidence but social/media frenzy, is also nonsense. The countries that have locked down sooner have far fewer deaths and conatin the virus much better. That is evidence, not frenzy. Sometimes you do talk rubbish and I suspect you have an agenda, though I have no idea what that might be.
 
#48
No I wasn’t arguing against your points, I think you are right, I was just saying that if the latest tests are showing 20% then potentially we are now at much greater numbers. I’m not a stats person and don’t pretend to be but with the only data we have available (as far as I am aware) a rough extrapolation of 10% is x million, rough extrapolation of 20% is y million. I fully accept the sample could be skewed in all sorts of ways.
No worries HC and apologies if I went off on one.

I think it’s really difficult to estimate with any real accuracy the overall infection rate, as there’s so much about this virus that we still don’t know. I suppose that’s the whole point of this thread, as there are differences of opinion amongst the scientific community themselves.

What we do know for sure, is that it’s significantly higher than the official figures. That was already the case even before we started restricting testing to those who require hospital treatment (or are members of the Royal Family).

The Chief Scientific Adviser reckons that there are approximately 1,000 cases per recorded death, which would equate to roughly half a million in the UK. This study from Oxford University suggests it’s possible 50% of the population has had it, which would mean 34 million.

Which of those two extremes is right, or where the figure actually falls in between, I wouldn’t like to guess.
 
#49
Alvez, I am sure we all hope the study proves to have some merit. I have no idea why you say "there are people who can't take that this may be true" is, to be frank a load of nonsense. You then go on to say we have put draconian measure in place based not on evidence but social/media frenzy, is also nonsense. The countries that have locked down sooner have far fewer deaths and conatin the virus much better. That is evidence, not frenzy. Sometimes you do talk rubbish and I suspect you have an agenda, though I have no idea what that might be.
What like Singapore?
Oh right no lockdown, schools still running
 
#50
No worries HC and apologies if I went off on one.

I think it’s really difficult to estimate with any real accuracy the overall infection rate, as there’s so much about this virus that we still don’t know. I suppose that’s the whole point of this thread, as there are differences of opinion amongst the scientific community themselves.

What we do know for sure, is that it’s significantly higher than the official figures. That was already the case even before we started restricting testing to those who require hospital treatment (or are members of the Royal Family).

The Chief Scientific Adviser reckons that there are approximately 1,000 cases per recorded death, which would equate to roughly half a million in the UK. This study from Oxford University suggests it’s possible 50% of the population has had it, which would mean 34 million.

Which of those two extremes is right, or where the figure actually falls in between, I wouldn’t like to guess.
No worries I didn’t take offence, I was just ‘thinking aloud‘ while reading your post, as you say we are all just joining in with the debate and it’s an interesting one as well 👍
 
#52
What like Singapore?
Oh right no lockdown, schools still running
No like Poland, India, South Korea. For every example you give I will give you three. Your argument has no merit Alvez. I will say again I hope the study proves to be right, I won't be adjusting the precautions I and my family are taking based on an unreviewed theory, thanks.
 
#54
Neither will I of course I'll continue the lockdown measures that I've been doing since before it was announced but Singapore has universally been praised for the way it's handled the outbreak. Without the measures currently in place but it doesn't fit your narrative.

It's fine to disagree and I bid you farewell I hope I'm right and this bit of possible good news turns out to help us all get back on our feet very soon whilst providing excellent care for those that need it.
 

bear66

Well-known member
#55
Neither will I of course I'll continue the lockdown measures that I've been doing since before it was announced but Singapore has universally been praised for the way it's handled the outbreak. Without the measures currently in place but it doesn't fit your narrative.

It's fine to disagree and I bid you farewell I hope I'm right and this bit of possible good news turns out to help us all get back on our feet very soon whilst providing excellent care for those that need it.
If you look at what Singapore did they never needed to lock down. Neither did Taiwan. The countries that realised what was happening in January are coming through this well. It'll probably come back but they have the ways and means to stunt it again.
 
#56
So if 21 million have already been infected how come we are only building a 4000 bed field hospital now. Where were all the people needing ventilators in January ??
It's utterly ridiculous to say 50 per cent are already infected.
 
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#57
Exactly ... There's people on this thread who can't take that it may well be true (the article) because they've suggested its going to be absolutely terrible.

I for one am happy this new test which is far more efficient will soon be available and pray that the article is correct.
The fact is we may have made the most Draconian legislation in generations based not on evidence but media and social media frenzy, yes this is a serious disease for some / many people but we should always follow the evidence.

Studies in Iceland who tested vast quantities of its population showed 50% showing no symptoms at all.
I'm sure I read a report that Iceland had tested EVERY member of its population?
 
#59
Not even close. Latest figures from the Icelandic government are that they have tested 9,768 people. With a population of 364,000 than means less than 3% have been tested. It's the largest percentage of any country in the world but way, way, way short of testing everyone.

Coronavirus testing in iceland
I thought this might be the case. Further proof of needed that we need to be careful with what news we digest.
 
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