Controversial Covid post

FabioPorkpie

FabioPorkpie

Well-known member
Thought long and hard about posting this, but on balance, there are lots of well informed posters on this board who like to get their teeth into topics and research stuff from all sides of the debate.

I have been trying to follow all sides of the ‘discussion’ throughout but one of the things I have difficulty with is the fact that those with a more legitimate and sensible opposing view are often mainly given a platform on right wing media sites (by people I absolutely cannot stand or give any credibility to, such as the vile Toby Young and James Delingpole) or conspiracy theory websites. I think it’s pretty apparent that I am most definitely well to the left of centre so that’s a conflict for me.

However, looking beyond that, and at the message rather than where it is being delivered from, I keep seeing more and more that simply doesn’t add up and more and more from Dr Mike Yeadon that makes sense.
He speaks well, is legitimate and clearly well informed in the topic, although he often comes across as arrogant and steadfastly ‘I’m right, you’re wrong’ in a lot of things, which doesn’t help his cause.
However, the content of what he says makes sense and he is clearly very passionate and taking a big risk and putting himself up there for humiliation of he’s wrong.

So I’m interested to know what others on here think, whose views I respect and who like to look at facts and research, such as @bear66, @Laughing, @Matt, @Cambsred @Liamo etc etc, and if anybody is able to pull what he says apart I’d be very interested. I have listened to this podcast (and read other stuff he’s put out there) sceptically at first, and I’ve tried to question what he says but I can’t help thinking he is speaking a lot of sense? Am I wrong??

And yes, I know the podcast is from a very right wing character who I massively dislike, but it’s purely the interviewee I’m interested in.

Anyway, it’s a loooong listen but is, I think, very worthwhile -

https://twitter.com/x/status/1319134428795424769


And for balance, here is the only thing I’ve found that tackles Yeadon’s high false positive claims, although I don’t think it’s very clear or conclusive -

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/false-positives-coronavirus_uk_5f686da4c5b6de79b677e909
 
When I hear him speak with such certainty and confidence I find it hard not to want his argument to be correct. He is reliably informing me that if I just get on with things everything will be fine.

I am not confident or knowledgeable enough regarding herd immunity, and the length of time people remain immune for- although some of the research from the original sars suggests at > 17 years immunity remains. Hopefully once we have it we can then move on.

@T_A_D is a big advocate for t- cell immunity and talks in the same vain as Dr Yeadon. I am sure immunity is present throughout the population, to the extent that is suggested in the podcast I am not as sure- again, a lot of people were infected in March so who knows. I am of the subjective opinion that it passed through my household- and our antibody tests are all negative- but who knows as testing was not up to gear at that time.

His second wave stuff I think is semantics- I feel the idea that we are in a second wave would suggest we ended a first wave- virus do pass through populations as they pass through. The northwest seem to have been grumbling along throughout the last 6 months. I would expect in coming out of lockdown London would take off again- but it has not yet. Perhaps a high level of immunity is already present. The next few weeks will answer that I suspect.

Medically, i can only speak for what I am aware of in the East of England. Nowhere was overwhelmed, however the ITUs were full of patients, particularly the large specialist hospitals. There were very few cases from May- August, and now they are trickling through the doors again (not many) but certainly more admissions that previously.

Some anecdotal worrying cases of long term conditions appearing now due to fear of hospitals/ not wanting to bother GPS/ hospitals which is concerning- this is the mortality/ morbidity impact of long term lockdown/ media scareing. And these will be the excess deaths that are because of locking down specifically, rather than covid (obviously they come hand in hand).

I can't help but feel that they slated modelling during the podcast, then guessed using possible models what the actual immunity/ population resistance was present.

I take his message as- people will die from it, we will develop immunity, he thinks we probably have got a good level in the populace, more people will die of it, but they will die of other stuff too. "The most vulnerable will die anyway"

I think that is always going to be the case- lockdowns if done early enough and for long enough will slow the spread- and I think it has. Vaccines may or may not help, but they will likely provide some short term immunity and help the most vulnerable.

My two questions have always been:

How many deaths can you accept without doing anything?

How do we weigh up deaths versus long term post viral symptoms with a virus that appears to me probably as deadly at the flu- however far more virulent and therefore a lot more post viral consequences and it spreads to a lot more people increasing the amount of deaths.

He also goes on to talk about law suits and I must be right because he hasn't sued me. Science isn't always clear cut, this is such a nonsense story. It really does devalue his argument and feels quite petulant.
 
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There are 65+ excess deaths, that's despite some pretty strong measures to protect people, everything will not be fine if we all just get on with our lives. Everything will be far from it, that 65K will become 150K in 6 months
 
My next door neighbour is in his 30’s and has been bed ridden for a week so far, even had medical attention

no more surgeons journal says they are to prepare extra wards in James cook. Covid is just starting to gets its claws stuck in

Less people are dying that are admitted to hospital, and you would expect this after 6 months. Lots of vulnerable already dead, we know better protect them and we know how to treat them better too

that said over 1000 people died of it despite the above
 
GazC_MFC said:
My next door neighbour is in his 30’s and has been bed ridden for a week so far, even had medical attention

no more surgeons journal says they are to prepare extra wards in James cook. Covid is just starting to gets its claws stuck in

Less people are dying that are admitted to hospital, and you would expect this after 6 months. Lots of vulnerable already dead, we know better protect them and we know how to treat them better too

that said over 1000 people died of it despite the above
Click to expand...
What’s the point about the guy in his 30s being bed ridden? Some viruses properly floor you. Influenza being just one. But there is very strong evidence to suggest that 30-40 year olds don’t need to be panicked about this virus (at least, not about getting it).
 
atypical_boro said:
What’s the point about the guy in his 30s being bed ridden? Some viruses properly floor you. Influenza being just one. But there is very strong evidence to suggest that 30-40 year olds don’t need to be panicked about this virus (at least, not about getting it).
Click to expand...

I think the bigger unknown is still the impact of post viral fatigue in the younger population. I know fibromyalgia/ ME/chronic fatigue/ post viral fatigue/ long covid all get thrown around. These can be quite debilitating regardless of title.

If the whole population (or even just 30% as suggested by Dr Yeadon) get the virus, that is a lot of people as risk of the long term side effects. My understanding of all the above diagnosis' that they can impact your life for years/ a lifetime.

Of course, the hard evidence is not there yet- and is unlikely to be as these are long term conditions and our understanding is still developing.
 
atypical_boro said:
What’s the point about the guy in his 30s being bed ridden? Some viruses properly floor you. Influenza being just one. But there is very strong evidence to suggest that 30-40 year olds don’t need to be panicked about this virus (at least, not about getting it).
Click to expand...
That it’s very much around and not gone away yet
 
@FabioPorkpie I know you didn't ask my opinion (offended 😉) all I will say is as a progressive lefty I've found it hard that the people who have been more critical and tried to bring debate to the table are only given time on right wing platforms, so I feel your pain.

P.s. in fairness to them the right are just as mad at the Tories and Boris
 
We have better response and treatment after the first wave that much is true.

What we don't really know is what might happen if Covid runs rampant through cities and towns without any lockdown restrictions etc. The projections are hospitals overrun, NHS staff unable to deal with the Covid cases alone - discounting the upcoming influenza season and potentially mortality on a horrific scale.

I have no answers, the 'accepted' science says we have to prepare, lockdown and trust that this will level out in the year or so ahead...I said and maintain this will likely be a late 2021 recovery at best *if* a vaccine helps. If not and the cycle keeps repeating then we are in for a nightmare time. I am sure that like me, everyone just wants some signs we can at least move past this, but until then we need to look out for one another as best we can.
 
Cambsred said:
When I hear him speak with such certainty and confidence I find it hard not to want his argument to be correct. He is reliably informing me that if I just get on with things everything will be fine.

I am not confident or knowledgeable enough regarding herd immunity, and the length of time people remain immune for- although some of the research from the original sars suggests at > 17 years immunity remains. Hopefully once we have it we can then move on.

@T_A_D is a big advocate for t- cell immunity and talks in the same vain as Dr Yeadon. I am sure immunity is present throughout the population, to the extent that is suggested in the podcast I am not as sure- again, a lot of people were infected in March so who knows. I am of the subjective opinion that it passed through my household- and our antibody tests are all negative- but who knows as testing was not up to gear at that time.

His second wave stuff I think is semantics- I feel the idea that we are in a second wave would suggest we ended a first wave- virus do pass through populations as they pass through. The northwest seem to have been grumbling along throughout the last 6 months. I would expect in coming out of lockdown London would take off again- but it has not yet. Perhaps a high level of immunity is already present. The next few weeks will answer that I suspect.

Medically, i can only speak for what I am aware of in the East of England. Nowhere was overwhelmed, however the ITUs were full of patients, particularly the large specialist hospitals. There were very few cases from May- August, and now they are trickling through the doors again (not many) but certainly more admissions that previously.

Some anecdotal worrying cases of long term conditions appearing now due to fear of hospitals/ not wanting to bother GPS/ hospitals which is concerning- this is the mortality/ morbidity impact of long term lockdown/ media scareing. And these will be the excess deaths that are because of locking down specifically, rather than covid (obviously they come hand in hand).

I can't help but feel that they slated modelling during the podcast, then guessed using possible models what the actual immunity/ population resistance was present.

I take his message as- people will die from it, we will develop immunity, he thinks we probably have got a good level in the populace, more people will die of it, but they will die of other stuff too. "The most vulnerable will die anyway"

I think that is always going to be the case- lockdowns if done early enough and for long enough will slow the spread- and I think it has. Vaccines may or may not help, but they will likely provide some short term immunity and help the most vulnerable.

My two questions have always been:

How many deaths can you accept without doing anything?

How do we weigh up deaths versus long term post viral symptoms with a virus that appears to me probably as deadly at the flu- however far more virulent and therefore a lot more post viral consequences and it spreads to a lot more people increasing the amount of deaths.

He also goes on to talk about law suits and I must be right because he hasn't sued me. Science isn't always clear cut, this is such a nonsense story. It really does devalue his argument and feels quite petulant.
Click to expand...

I like your two questions. I’d probably add ‘excess deaths’ rather than Covid deaths.

Also read something yesterday that may/may not be true (you never know) -
For the under 70’s - you are more likely to die from Flu, than Covid.
 
Still so much we don’t know about the pandemic, therefore so much speculation and so many counter theories.
Who is going to open things up and take the risk that the NHS will not be able to cope with Covid, never mind all of the other conditions that would go untreated?
I would suggest that nobody in government would risk this amount of deaths unless we become unable to come out of the lockdown cycle and society begins to break down....

By the way, a virus’ virulence relates to the level of harm it does to its victims, not to how quickly or easily it spreads.

A common misconception.
 
Why are people completely ignoring the topic of the post and just repeating stock BBC responses like it's March. 🤣

I'll help those of you struggling:-

It's not about hospitals being overwhelmed (like they are every year from now till December).
It's not about 'not knowing anything about the virus and it's still so new we know nothing about it' (it's not and we do).
It's not about your mate Dave who's a triathlon runner and now 6 months on can't run 100 metres.

It is about the false positive rate and about the right wing media outlets giving both sides of the debate air time Vs the left wing places like the guardian wanting us all to be terrified, that is all.

Not to sound harsh but come on guys.
 
Mwelolo said:
Still so much we don’t know about the pandemic, therefore so much speculation and so many counter theories.
Who is going to open things up and take the risk that the NHS will not be able to cope with Covid, never mind all of the other conditions that would go untreated?
I would suggest that nobody in government would risk this amount of deaths unless we become unable to come out of the lockdown cycle and society begins to break down....

By the way, a virus’ virulence relates to the level of harm it does to its victims, not to how quickly or easily it spreads.

A common misconception.
Click to expand...
Alvez_48 said:
Why are people completely ignoring the topic of the post and just repeating stock BBC responses like it's March. 🤣

I'll help those of you struggling:-

It's not about hospitals being overwhelmed (like they are every year from now till December).
It's not about 'not knowing anything about the virus and it's still so new we know nothing about it' (it's not and we do).
It's not about your mate Dave who's a triathlon runner and now 6 months on can't run 100 metres.

It is about the false positive rate and about the right wing media outlets giving both sides of the debate air time Vs the left wing places like the guardian wanting us all to be terrified, that is all.

Not to sound harsh but come on guys.
Click to expand...
 
“I'll help those of you struggling:-“

Well that sounds incredibly patronising just because some disagree with your thoughts.
 
Nonsense.

When
has the NHS had to deal with winter pressures in addition to Covid?

I’ll help you out - never.

You really believe that anyone fully understands the nature and impact of this virus?
 
NHS occ
Mwelolo said:
Nonsense.

When
has the NHS had to deal with winter pressures in addition to Covid?

I’ll help you out - never.

You really believe that anyone fully understands the nature and impact of this virus?
Click to expand...

Bed occupancy the same as last year, fully understands no. Now please get back to the topic.
 
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