How exactly can the discrepancy in deaths be explained?

UKLL1981 said:
Most the big flare ups now are in uni towns, having nearly 1000 positive tests on one campus is obviously going to inflate the figures but better than having 1000 cases scattered around the country as well being to people less likely to get seriously ill. Also much less multi generational households here in the SE.
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This was not commented upon when they showed the graphs today, but the lines for young people all peaked around the end of September/beginning of October, which was precisely when the students were going back. A bit inconvenient in terms of the message they are trying to get across.
 
People are packed into houses in London, loads of housesharing, loads of people on public transport, loads of people on zero hours contracts. The idea that everyone can work from home here is nonsense.
 
Sheriff_John_Bunnell_ret said:
People are packed into houses in London, loads of housesharing, loads of people on public transport, loads of people on zero hours contracts. The idea that everyone can work from home here is nonsense.
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Not everyone but a much better percentage. Docks aside I would say a bigger percentage of londoners have wfh jobs. Not many factories around
 
Lifelonfaninexile said:
Ok, I will bell the cat.
Areas of social deprivation where the figures are the worst have huge ethnic populations.
Dont bother screaming racist at me.
Afro Caribbean and Asian people appear to be more susceptible to this virus.
The areas worst hit have immensely dense populations.
The South West can rest easy.
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I don’t follow. Plenty of Black and Asian folk in London isn’t there?

Also, plenty of students too. None of them are dying though. So that doesn’t fully explain the huge delta in deaths.
 
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Don‘t the figures show that the virus is rippling southwards rather than north as it did in the first wave?

I’m sure I heard somebody on the telly say that the government expects all areas to suffer some kind of lockdown before the winter is out.
 
Smog in Wilts said:
I dont disagree, but there is some debate as to whether it is more likely that BAME people get the virus due to their ethnicity or due to their workplaces and/or residential situation.
I certainly wouldnt call anyone a racist for presenting the facts as they are.
I think that the South west will be ok, but there are large areas with high social deprivation, Cornwall is one of the poorest areas in the country.
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Lots of questions asked during the first wave of why BAME communities seemed to be more affected by the virus and lots saying it was because of the workplaces and generally poor paid job sectors they worked in. All these claims can be quashed when researched as underlying health conditions can cause complications. Diabetes is something that has a much higher rate in BAME.

ETHNICITY FACTS

  • Type 2 diabetes is up to 6 times more likely in people of South Asian descent [1]
  • Type 2 diabetes is up to three times more likely in African and Africa-Caribbean people [1]
 
atypical_boro said:
The numbers in the South East, South West and London (largely just as densely populated) are so much lower than North West, North East & Yorkshire.
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Isn't this what Jonathan Van-Tamm was talking about at the press conference?

Namely that the infection starts in younger age groups, who experience much lower rates of mortality, but eventually and inevitably spreads into older age groups. He then used the heat maps to show the progression of the virus across the different regions of England, showing that the second wave is much further ahead in northern regions than southern ones.

https://news.sky.com/video/coronavirus-heat-maps-show-covid-19-spread-by-age-and-region-12109379
 
Billy Horner said:
Isn't this what Jonathan Van-Tamm was talking about at the press conference?

Namely that the infection starts in younger age groups, who experience much lower rates of mortality, but eventually and inevitably spreads into older age groups. He then used the heat maps to show the progression of the virus across the different regions of England, showing that the second wave is much further ahead in northern regions than southern ones.

https://news.sky.com/video/coronavirus-heat-maps-show-covid-19-spread-by-age-and-region-12109379
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So they’re going to get a second wave down south too is the assumption?
 
Cardiffdaffs said:
it is certain. Figures in London are rising rapidly And a national lockdown is also inevitable as some predicted 3 months ago
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Logically then, a full national lockdown will be issued, with the north coming out of lockdown before the likes of London as our death numbers dwindle earlier, kind of like the Italy/UK progress during Spring?
 
Social inequality and health inequality go hand in hand, and in this region especially we are hit by both which likely explains it.
Higher levels of heart disease, lung conditions, obese/overweight, smokers etc which are pretty much the biggest risk factors, add into that people living in overcrowded or poor quality housing and a virus like this is always going to be a disaster for the region.
London may possibly have some heard immunity too as they had the initial spike which could be starting to make a difference.
 
Forgive my ignorance but looking at the map Tameside seems quite a well off area? More older people perhaps who are more susceptible?
 
I don't understand it either, especially London where its so much more densely populated. One thing with London is that the population is much younger and on the whole, healthier, I would say.
 
Clevo said:
I don't understand it either, especially London where its so much more densely populated. One thing with London is that the population is much younger and on the whole, healthier, I would say.
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"London may possibly have some heard immunity too as they had the initial spike which could be starting to make a difference."

Some 'experts' say that London already has a degree of immunity due to being hit the hardest when at its peak.
 
Some interesting graphs here on mobility during lockdown. I've looked for tfl and can only find results up to march.

https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus-covid-19-mobility-report

If you use the citymapper app in the bottom right hand corner you can find a mobility index for various cities around the world. Manchester and London are pretty similar. Look at Tokyo and it just drops off to 10% and never recovers. The American cities are the same. Russia on the other hand seems to have taken a little dip and got back to normal. Of course this is just for people using the app. The Americans are maybes just driving everywhere and have no need for city mapper which tend to be used for public transport.
 
The North is simply experiencing its first wave with a vulnerable population that was largely unexposed earlier. When we went into full lockdown, West Yorkshire had very low levels of infection. My ward had zero cases in fact. Most of Calderdale was the same. When things re-opened after the summer and schools/colleges returned, that large vulnerable population became exposed ... largely for the first time. It will peak in the north as it did in the south.
The other stuff holds true though that we have large areas of deprivation in the north, and in the West Yorkshire region, large BAME communities with high rates of underlying health conditions. I've been working with a group in Bradford who are trying to encourage the pakistani community to embrace the outdoors and hiking more. They were telling me about the sedentary lifestyle and high carb diet ... and how it has huge impact upon health in their community, particularly amongst the women.
 
So when the next national lockdown is applied I trust this time the Government will only release the areas from it when figures evidence that it is under control and not as they did in June release the whole country from lockdown because London had it under control.
 
Ipad1977 said:
Logically then, a full national lockdown will be issued, with the north coming out of lockdown before the likes of London as our death numbers dwindle earlier, kind of like the Italy/UK progress during Spring?
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Logically yes, but I suspect the gov will ‘forget’ to let us out early, citing the national problem.
 
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