We Need a total lockdown
- Thread starter 1finny
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Chris_Boro
Well-known member
At least he has a plan, unlike a certain whaff piffle waffle bag Prime Minister 
Shaboro1986
Active member
But it won't happen because all these people know better than the experts
1finny
Well-known member
No such thing asa Covid experts. Scientists and statisticians are all over the place - many saying 2nd wave, many saying things are looking up.
Take your pick
Jimstewart
Well-known member
We need common sense. Isolate the ill and the elderly. That’s it. I stand up o be corrected but in a the last 24 hours 27 people have been recorded as dying after having a positive test within the last 28 days, That is UK wide out of a population of 66 million. We are miles behind with the treatments and diagnosis of cancers, heart disease and strokes. Unemployment will devastate families causing mental health issues which will lead to depression and suicides. We need to get a grip of ourselves and realise that this virus is a deadly threat to a small portion of our population and do everything in our power to protect them while the rest of us keep the country afloat.
tonybiriyani
Well-known member
Protect them by isolating them indefinitely?
Jimstewart
Well-known member
Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants
Well-known member
for some reason people think if we stop old people and vulnerable from dying then it’s job done.
it’s essential we stop as many infections as possible due to what is becoming known as Long Covid. It effects symptomatic and asymptomatic and doesn’t seem to be bothered by age group. Im starting to realise that after almost 6 months of being discharged from hospital that my chest may never be back to 100%. I have no idea if it’s heart or lungs or both that are effected still. Thousands upon thousands are reporting the same issues. I’ve joined a facebook group of people in the same boat. Not nice to say but it has potentially shortened my life and many others. Thats what is going through my head.
hospital admissions have doubled to 195 in 8 days. ICUs getting busier. Needs nipping in the bud quickly. Compliance required by everyone. Hopefully keep as much open as reasonably possible.
BoroMart
Well-known member
Interesting graphs. I don't believe the deaths though. The arbitrary figure of if you don't die within 28 days of a positive test, then you don't count, is nonsense. Particularly when healthy people are still struggling with their health 6 months after contracting the virus.
Saying that, I would counterbalance by saying, many of those that have sadly been lost, here the most vulnerable, and therefore there are less vulnerable people to lose second wave. Also the vulnerable that didn't contract it first time are far more cautious. Thirdly I think the medical profession have learned enough to positively impact the death rates.
I just hope the government have learned and don't do anything so stupid as releasing the infected into care homes, and not having the necessary PPE for NHS staff.
BoroMart
Well-known member
Sorry but firstly, 28 is an arbitrary cut off point, designed to manipulate the figures, not give a true reflection of risk. Secondly, the long term effects of those that survive include serious health issues. Thirdly, unchecked 20-30 million will contract CV-19 within 6 months that many people will not have cancer/stroke etc. in a 6 month period.
We need to keep social distancing, control the risk, reduce infection rate protect everyone but particularly the vulnerable.
Jimstewart
Well-known member
I am sorry to hear about your illness and hope you do recover fully. As to your point I can only point to the statistics which clearly show that the vast majority of serious coronavirus cases occur in the ill and the elderly. I think that is beyond dispute. I have no doubt that otherwise fit and healthy people that have caught the virus are experiencing long Covid and the consequences that go with it. But the lockdown has had and will have grave consequences for many more people that have not had a multitude of life threatening conditions diagnosed and treated over the last six months. My mother was due an endoscopy for throat cancer in early March but it was postponed due to lockdown and didn’t happen until late June. Those three months could have cost her life and there are many thousands like her.
On the face of it, the graphs look alarming
https://assets.publishing.service.g...COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_38_FINAL.pdf
But they get less alarming when you look more closely.
Earlier in the epidemic, there were hardly any cases in my part of west yorkshire. In fact, there were zero cases in my local ward for a long time right through lockdown. It was inevitable, I think, that when we opened things up again, that cases would rise ... and that areas that had been spared earlier, would have a greater pool of people vulnerable to catching the virus. My local ward has 8 cases now..... up from zero in lockdown.
The pillar one curve is what you would expect to see with a pandemic .... big spike and long tail. You'd expect low transmission during lock down and an increase after opening up. That's all there.
But now we have large scale pillar 2 results, which is where most of the new cases are coming from. That's ok as long as loads more people aren't dying.
Opening up after lockdown you would expect to see an increase in mortality, which we do, but it is very small at the moment. It may get worse, but, it would seem unlikely that mortality will return to spring levels just now.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_38_FINAL.pdf
But they get less alarming when you look more closely.
Earlier in the epidemic, there were hardly any cases in my part of west yorkshire. In fact, there were zero cases in my local ward for a long time right through lockdown. It was inevitable, I think, that when we opened things up again, that cases would rise ... and that areas that had been spared earlier, would have a greater pool of people vulnerable to catching the virus. My local ward has 8 cases now..... up from zero in lockdown.
The pillar one curve is what you would expect to see with a pandemic .... big spike and long tail. You'd expect low transmission during lock down and an increase after opening up. That's all there.
But now we have large scale pillar 2 results, which is where most of the new cases are coming from. That's ok as long as loads more people aren't dying.
Opening up after lockdown you would expect to see an increase in mortality, which we do, but it is very small at the moment. It may get worse, but, it would seem unlikely that mortality will return to spring levels just now.
uncle_rico
Well-known member
If the government were really that concerned then they would close pubs. Whilst pubs are open people will continue to behave the way they are.
Michael_Vronsky
Well-known member
This is a huge worry. The amount of people suffering from cancer and other life threatening illnesses which will go untreated is alarming.
Really sorry to hear about your mother Jim. I know my friend across the road has had his operation cancelled; he was due to have surgery on his bowel.
Look at column one in the first list .... the numbers and the trends.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_38_FINAL.pdf
What it tells you is that if you test more, you find more cases.
Look at the national average for tests per 100,000. If you are lucky, you live in one of those areas that brings the average down to 63.7 per 100,000
It's a joke.
Notice the geographical spread of the authorites that are testing more per 100,000 of population ... and thus finding more cases.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_38_FINAL.pdf
What it tells you is that if you test more, you find more cases.
Look at the national average for tests per 100,000. If you are lucky, you live in one of those areas that brings the average down to 63.7 per 100,000
It's a joke.
Notice the geographical spread of the authorites that are testing more per 100,000 of population ... and thus finding more cases.
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bear66
Well-known member
That link shows nothing of the sort.
Middlesbrough and Bolton have similar test numbers but Boro less than a quarter of positive cases. See also Pendle, Corby, Blaby and Northampton. There is no correlation from that link.
Boro has had lower cases over the last few days, as has Stockton. Hartlepool wasn't looking too good till Wednesday but has had two lower days. Hopefully Teesside is getting over the peak in cases.
Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants
Well-known member
Don’t forget people are unable to get tests which will keep the numbers lower.
bear66
Well-known member
I'm hoping that isn't the reason Teesside seems to have turned the corner!