UK announces 3,539 more Covid-19 cases in highest rise in four months

We really shouldn't be surprised that cases are rising, this not a coincidence. Whilst the EOTHO scheme may have been a shot in the arm for some businesses, you can't expect cases to fall when we were all encouraged to go out and gather together for 3 weeks which spiked the volume of people in pubs and restaurants. Even with social distancing and attempts to make eating out safe, this was bound to happen in my view
 
You can be infected again (if mutated) so to be honest herd immunity is pie in the sky

Very few examples of re-infection and there is evidence that once infected you will not be re-infected. As atyptical_boro points out this is generally the case for these types of virus and it has been shown in vivo that there is cross reactivity with other coronavirus's. This is well demonstrated now.

Your "pie in the sky" comment regarding herd immunity is without evidence. I am not saying that we have it but without knowing how many people have had the virus, and crucially how many people are still susceptible it is not possible to say either way. However, there is growing evidence of a number of forms of immunity and the number of people susceptible is far fewer than many first thought.

This also means that the modelling (which I defended heavily in the early stages) which seems to be based on all of the population being susceptible (correct me if I'm wrong) may have incorrect assumptions.
 
We are now at the start of the second wave. It was likely because people naturally let their guard down when it looks like the virus is reducing, but 85% of the UK population still have not had the virus, so don't have immunity. The virus is highly contagious amongst adults.

Lots of evidence to say there will be no 2nd wave
We have a ‘casedemic’ at the moment. Positive tests don’t mean you have Covid they mean there is a trace of the virus.
The YouTube video earlier in the thread (40 mins mind) raises loads of questions - worth a watch.
 
That simply is not the case. What will determine whether the virus "will come back" is how many people in the UK are still susceptible. It really is that simple. If the numbers still susceptible is small then it won't resurge in any significant amount. If the numbers are large then it will.

That really is the key question and no one knows the answer. There are those who seem very fixed on the numbers estimated to have antibodies and who say we are not near 'herd immunity' and there are others who point out there are other forms of immunity and that we are close to 'herd immunity'.

I hate to break it to you about a vaccine but we may not find an effective vaccine. One has not been found for any other coronavirus and there are plenty of virus's for which a vaccine has never been found despite decades of research. "we can't go back to normal life without a vaccine" is a line trotted out by the media without much evidence to back it up.

Rather than the government coming up with some ridiculous "moonshot" nonsense they should be trying to answer key questions which would help us move forward quickly and much more cheaply. Testing large chunks of the population every day by some point next year is just bonkers. Why would we do that? What would it achieve?

Chris Whitty's stance does confuse me though. He started off by being seemingly happy with washing hands and saying restricting mass gatherings has no impact. Now he has flipped completely to saying we need a vaccine. What data is he working from which has made him change his mind? I'd love to see it. Or just like him to explain why he has had such a change of view.

Chris Wittys stance changes as science and knowledges changes. He said a few weeks ago when schools open there may need to be some counter measures. He knew schools opening would cause carnage. I can see pubs closing, that was one of his trade offs.
 
Where's your evidence! Theres like one person who has been reinfected.

There are quite a few who have been re-infected, there are at least two main strains, Asian and European/African. The person in California who caught it the second time round was put on a ventilator. He had caught both strains. Most others seem to have only had mild symptoms from what I can and on twitter.
 
Chris Wittys stance changes as science and knowledges changes. He said a few weeks ago when schools open there may need to be some counter measures. He knew schools opening would cause carnage. I can see pubs closing, that was one of his trade offs.

His stance changed very dramatically on 'mass gatherings', I'd be interested to know why. Whether it is his personal view or the view of wider advice.
 
We really shouldn't be surprised that cases are rising, this not a coincidence. Whilst the EOTHO scheme may have been a shot in the arm for some businesses, you can't expect cases to fall when we were all encouraged to go out and gather together for 3 weeks which spiked the volume of people in pubs and restaurants. Even with social distancing and attempts to make eating out safe, this was bound to happen in my view
Schools and unis going back now too.
 
Very few examples of re-infection and there is evidence that once infected you will not be re-infected. As atyptical_boro points out this is generally the case for these types of virus and it has been shown in vivo that there is cross reactivity with other coronavirus's. This is well demonstrated now.

Your "pie in the sky" comment regarding herd immunity is without evidence. I am not saying that we have it but without knowing how many people have had the virus, and crucially how many people are still susceptible it is not possible to say either way. However, there is growing evidence of a number of forms of immunity and the number of people susceptible is far fewer than many first thought.

This also means that the modelling (which I defended heavily in the early stages) which seems to be based on all of the population being susceptible (correct me if I'm wrong) may have incorrect assumptions.

I think they pie in the sky is credible comment as I believe there is now 3 cases of re-infection documented. We’re only several months into a pandemic. We’ve had multiple mutations already
 
How likely is it that someone would come into contact with it twice?

in addition there is a handful of recorded reinfections. There is likely to me more unrecorded
Even the common cold coronaviruses provide immunity for 3-9 months so it'll be some time before we get a better handle on this. A tiny percentage of people were tested in the first few months so duplicate positive tests will be difficult to find for some time. On a positive note, SARS gave probable continued immunity years after infection.
 
Even the common cold coronaviruses provide immunity for 3-9 months so it'll be some time before we get a better handle on this. A tiny percentage of people were tested in the first few months so duplicate positive tests will be difficult to find for some time. On a positive note, SARS gave probable continued immunity years after infection.
The case in Nevada was 48 days later. Pathology tests confirmed 2 separate strains with the 2nd infection caused ventilation
 
Wow some panic merchants on here. No wonder the government keep making inept decisions.

Follow Professor Carl Heneghan's work at the Centre of Evidence Based Medicine - you'll stop panicking then.
 
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