Lifelonfaninexile
Well-known member
Everybody take a bit of time out and re-read 1984, the only thing he got wrong was the date.
Is that per test or per capita? Cos if it’s per capita then surely we need to know what the case per test increase is?92% increase in infections with the over 50s - being reported in this mid morning press.
You can be infected again (if mutated) so to be honest herd immunity is pie in the sky
We are now at the start of the second wave. It was likely because people naturally let their guard down when it looks like the virus is reducing, but 85% of the UK population still have not had the virus, so don't have immunity. The virus is highly contagious amongst adults.
there’s no evidence to that is what will happen 2nd round
That simply is not the case. What will determine whether the virus "will come back" is how many people in the UK are still susceptible. It really is that simple. If the numbers still susceptible is small then it won't resurge in any significant amount. If the numbers are large then it will.
That really is the key question and no one knows the answer. There are those who seem very fixed on the numbers estimated to have antibodies and who say we are not near 'herd immunity' and there are others who point out there are other forms of immunity and that we are close to 'herd immunity'.
I hate to break it to you about a vaccine but we may not find an effective vaccine. One has not been found for any other coronavirus and there are plenty of virus's for which a vaccine has never been found despite decades of research. "we can't go back to normal life without a vaccine" is a line trotted out by the media without much evidence to back it up.
Rather than the government coming up with some ridiculous "moonshot" nonsense they should be trying to answer key questions which would help us move forward quickly and much more cheaply. Testing large chunks of the population every day by some point next year is just bonkers. Why would we do that? What would it achieve?
Chris Whitty's stance does confuse me though. He started off by being seemingly happy with washing hands and saying restricting mass gatherings has no impact. Now he has flipped completely to saying we need a vaccine. What data is he working from which has made him change his mind? I'd love to see it. Or just like him to explain why he has had such a change of view.
Where's your evidence! Theres like one person who has been reinfected.
Chris Wittys stance changes as science and knowledges changes. He said a few weeks ago when schools open there may need to be some counter measures. He knew schools opening would cause carnage. I can see pubs closing, that was one of his trade offs.
Schools and unis going back now too.We really shouldn't be surprised that cases are rising, this not a coincidence. Whilst the EOTHO scheme may have been a shot in the arm for some businesses, you can't expect cases to fall when we were all encouraged to go out and gather together for 3 weeks which spiked the volume of people in pubs and restaurants. Even with social distancing and attempts to make eating out safe, this was bound to happen in my view
Very few examples of re-infection and there is evidence that once infected you will not be re-infected. As atyptical_boro points out this is generally the case for these types of virus and it has been shown in vivo that there is cross reactivity with other coronavirus's. This is well demonstrated now.
Your "pie in the sky" comment regarding herd immunity is without evidence. I am not saying that we have it but without knowing how many people have had the virus, and crucially how many people are still susceptible it is not possible to say either way. However, there is growing evidence of a number of forms of immunity and the number of people susceptible is far fewer than many first thought.
This also means that the modelling (which I defended heavily in the early stages) which seems to be based on all of the population being susceptible (correct me if I'm wrong) may have incorrect assumptions.
3 out of????I think they pie in the sky is credible comment as I believe there is now 3 cases of re-infection documented. We’re only several months into a pandemic. We’ve had multiple mutations already
3 out of????
Even the common cold coronaviruses provide immunity for 3-9 months so it'll be some time before we get a better handle on this. A tiny percentage of people were tested in the first few months so duplicate positive tests will be difficult to find for some time. On a positive note, SARS gave probable continued immunity years after infection.How likely is it that someone would come into contact with it twice?
in addition there is a handful of recorded reinfections. There is likely to me more unrecorded
The case in Nevada was 48 days later. Pathology tests confirmed 2 separate strains with the 2nd infection caused ventilationEven the common cold coronaviruses provide immunity for 3-9 months so it'll be some time before we get a better handle on this. A tiny percentage of people were tested in the first few months so duplicate positive tests will be difficult to find for some time. On a positive note, SARS gave probable continued immunity years after infection.
Seems like the Nevada case wasn’t all it seemsThe case in Nevada was 48 days later. Pathology tests confirmed 2 separate strains with the 2nd infection caused ventilation
it may be panic to you, its discussion to the rest of us.
France is on Fire.