What have Coventry done differently to us?

In hindsight, do people think we were right not to spend in January? It's a window usually noted for poor value.

I think we can agree, whatever we did at that point, we weren't going to threaten automatic promotion.
It's also a matter of historical record that the 5th and 6th placed teams don't do that well in the play offs.

Against that, maybe a few more points now could have seen us sneak in, and where there's life there's hope.

In hindsight, I do think we could have reached the playoffs, but I don't think we'd have been promoted. I suppose we'll never know, but that argument can be used for just buying one more lottery scratch card....
 
Nano said:
We've been "close" to big money signings loads of times in recent years but not gone through with any of them. A cynic might say that those rumours are there to show that the club has ambition, to shift tickets and to stop people complaining about us not trying to buy players. Every window we are linked to a big money signing and we don't make one looks more and more deliberate. If we were in the market for a £10m striker 4 windows ago then why have we still not bought one?
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We weren't we were looking around the 5-6m mark ideally. The lad that went to spain for 10m we dropped out about 6 or 7m

It's all relative to income though. We spent big when we had parachute payments, we gambled somewhat and failed, and had to eat our medicine for a few years until we got the cost base down. Now we have to replace "parachute payment" with "player sales" to improve the squad. Like I said the Gibson, Traore type sales serviced the ongoing costs of a 15m striker a 7m dud CB, a bang average midfielder from Millwall for 6m.

We don't have that on the books now, the big sales build up FFP we don't have a great deal of debt, what exactly is the point in not spending it? The FFP disappears and the club gets money in the bank....but that's pointless because nobody draws that as profit. there is a tipping point, which we have pretty much reached, where selling players and not reinvesting serves absolutely zero purpose to the club, the fans or the owners.
 
Blackburn need a result to ensure they're not relegated, their game in hand is against Ipswich, so hopefully they lose them both.

Got absolutely nothing against Coventry, but I'd like to finish above them.
 
They looked a bit tired today with some of those goals conceded and will probably end up with less points than they got last season despite a lot of investment. The FAC must have affected their league form. They will top 6 candidates next season though.
 
Redwurzel said:
They looked a bit tired today with some of those goals conceded and will probably end up with less points than they got last season despite a lot of investment. The FAC must have affected their league form. They will top 6 candidates next season though.
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Is it any different to the league cup impacting ours? I’d be worried that they invested like 25m from the sales of their two best players and have gone backwards without any injury issues.

I’m comfortable that our league position has largely been less than last year through injuries and late signings.
 
As some one said earlier… our foundations were built on sand, ie Loan Players, and players out of contract.

As far as I’m concerned Phase 1 was last summer, bringing in young talent and improving them. We’re now seeing the fruits of that labor with our performances over the last few months.

Phase 2 comes this summer, where we need to keep hold of our core players and add extra… if we do this we’ll have a very good season… but if we lose players like we did last season we revert back to Phase 1, we’ll have a slow start and similar season to this one. This is problematic because we might start to see an exodus of staff and players (Carrick) who wont believe the club are moving forward. We are supposed to have solved the problem of losing key players, through loans and ending contracts.

The difference between us and Coventry they are already in the midst of their second phase, having already reinvested a lot of their income. We’re slightly behind having started our project later.

This summer is huge for us, it can go either way. Let’s hope the club.. continue with the project they began and don’t let it fall through our fingers. We’re on the cusp of something.
 
Norman_Conquest said:
Both reached a semi final that made them take their eye off the target.
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Let's face it, we had very kind draws on the way - their achievement was much greater. As Redwurzel syas, they are strong contenders next season. Having three big clubs such as Leeds, Leicester & Saints come down together is unusual. Cov have done outstandingly well after selling O'Hare and Gyokeres; their budget over the past couple of seasons must have been much smaller than ours.

It's hard to judge this season for us because of the injuries factor but you have to say that disappointment was foreshadowed by our grim opening, which pointed up key issues: lack of firepower, soft goals conceded, conceding first. For me, retaining key performers such as VdB, McGree and Hackney is important, because I feel Carrick has the trust of the squad and, notwithstanding a similar injury crisis, we have the quality to challenge.

I think the emergence of Clarke has been interesting. He's a 'proper defender' and, although he does have a rick in him, a team needs that 'you're not getting past us' mentality. Bangura is an interesting one. He looked good on Monday when he came on. Is he suspect defensively - and if so, are we prepared to carry that given what he might offer as an attacking threat? Similar conundrum to Ayling really, who can look all at sea when a good winger gets at him.

The big plus from the last month or two has been the emergence of Lath, whom I didn't rate, but who seems to have made a real breakthrough. I do believe that confidence is the biggest factor in football and I believe the evidence is that Carrick makes players better and that's maybe down to his psychological influence as much as anything. I think two big questions surround Barlaser and Azaz on that score. In some games, Barlaser has ran the show. Azaz has had moments of real quality. Those sorts of players need a fair wind behind them; they need trust and self-belief. But both players need to be sharper, toughen up, cut out the tendency to flake out which gets fans on their backs. For players like that it might come down to a run of games in a winning team, just as for Lath is was a run of goalscoring once he'd got to grips with the pace and intensity of the league.
 
SmoggyRambo said:
The difference between us and Coventry they are already in the midst of their second phase, having already reinvested a lot of their income. We’re slightly behind having started our project later.
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100% this. They will probably end up on around the same points as last season while we will end up 6-9 points less than last season. That was because they could afford quality and quantity and, for whatever reason, didn't have the same injury issues as us. That said, they lost O'Hare for a long time and currently have Sakomoto out.

Our main purchases this season are starting to come good and if we can avoid losing our core players, we can focus on quality this summer.

Coventry, like us, now look to have a solid core. Their main issue is what happens with O'Hare: he will be really hard to replace.
I think, if we get it right, that we could end up overtaking them next season.
 
Just shows what a tough league the Champo is. All 3 teams who reached the playoffs last season (Boro, Coventry, Sunderland) failed to do so this season.
 
Norman_Conquest said:
Both reached a semi final that made them take their eye off the target.
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I don't think it took their eyes off the league, neither team are consistent enough and that's been the story all season, not for a short period surrounding the big cup matches. We both lost to Rotherham, for example. Have a look at their results and they've been similar to ours.

They did take 6 points from us, had that been reversed we would still be outside the top 6, they'd be on 57 points.
 
Fat_Dragon said:
Just shows what a tough league the Champo is. All 3 teams who reached the playoffs last season (Boro, Coventry, Sunderland) failed to do so this season.
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Think it's symptomatic of the issue you face if you don't go up, the vultures come and cherry pick your best players. Or, more in the case of us and Sunderland, you lose top quality loan players who made a difference.

Even if you get big fees in, easier said than done replacing the proven quality you've lost.

Brentford made that recycling of players an art form, but even then it still took them a lot of goes to get over the line. Seem to remember them having a few slow starts to seasons, no doubt partly down to having to bed in new players every year.
 
SmoggyRambo said:
Phase 2 comes this summer, where we need to keep hold of our core players and add extra… if we do this we’ll have a very good season… but if we lose players like we did last season we revert back to Phase 1, we’ll have a slow start and similar season to this one. This is problematic because we might start to see an exodus of staff and players (Carrick) who wont believe the club are moving forward. We are supposed to have solved the problem of losing key players, through loans and ending contracts.
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We certainly have been hot and cold.

Not many teams can go 7 without a win (chapter 1), followed by 6 wins on the bounce (chapter 2)?

We followed that with 2 wins in 8 (chapter 3), then won 4 out of our next 5 (chapter 4).

then we had 1 win in 7 (chapter 5), then 9 unbeaten (chapter 6).

It's been a real feast and famine season.

So whats the story behind each chapter?

Chapter 1 - 7 without a win. Regardless of what peoples view of Engel and Bangura are, they're both better than Coulson as LBs, and that was a key issue in chapter 1. We also failed to get our striker in, and had to play our low scoring young 10 as a CF. We cannot allow this to happen next season. We need to get our key gaps resolved during pre-season.

Chapter 2 - 6 wins on the bounce. Full strength, we had 2 fit CFs, we regularly had a bench of experienced players and we started to find form, with an impressive winning streak . 10 different goalscorers in those games.

Chapter 3 - 2 wins in 8 - the first wave of injuries start to bite, Smith, Lenihan, Coburn etc. Can't keep a consistent side on the pitch

Chapter 4 - win 4 out of 5 - Morgan Rogers starts to show his class.

Chapter 5 - 1 win in 7 Jan/Feb - The injury crisis collides with a cup run and leaves us without a CF, and Rogers gets sold leaving us without our creativity. We also have 1 CB

Chapter 6 - 9 unbeaten - CF is back, 2x CBs fit

When we haven't had square pegs in round holes, we've pretty much been a top play off side. We need a bit of luck with injuries, and to make sure we have more backup in each position next year. I'm confdent we can get off to a much better start than this season, it was always catch up and the club has to learn to get its business done early.
 
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The real world finances and FFP/P&S are markedly different.

Having huge FFP headroom still means a club is losing millions in real money.
This requires an owner to invest to cover those losses - all of them.
They invest by either loaning money (with commitments) or injecting equity into something they already own.

The club lost £6.4m last season despite big profit £22.3m from player sales - and will lose again this season too despite another profit from player sales.
The club will lose money again next season in the Championship, even if they sell Hackney or VdB for big book profit.
Despite that, the combination of lower combined wages/amortisation, slightly higher revenue and profit from player sales, means the FFP losses are well within the FFP boundaries of £15m over 3 seasons (£39m if owner injects £24m).

There is definitely scope from a P&S/FFP position for the club to invest heavily in the playing squad. Whether there is an intention to do so lies absolutely with Gibson.
Does Gibson see buying/borrowing players capable of promotion as an investment he is prepared to finance, in addition to him covering the losses we will make next season however we do?

I don't think he is prepared to at all - I have seen no indication of this since the Tavernier window.
I really hope for all our sakes I am wrong.
If I'm not then what is Gibson holding on to the club for?

As for Coventry, they held the brilliant Gyok and very good Hamer, made the play offs, missed out on promotion in a penalty shoot out lottery and then sold 2 of their stars at better price.
They reinvested every bit and I think have a good squad with at the very least as good a manager.
People who say they've spent everything don't understand accounting.
They raised £39m through the sale of Gyok (plus sell on) and Hamer. That will show as a £36m profit from player sales in the accounts to 2024.
They spent £37m on 10 players, who if on average signed 4 year contracts will hit the 24 P&L with c£9m. None of their signings will be on colossal wages.
They have a fraction of our debt and have a far healthier nett shareholder value.
They have in my opinion a stronger current squad and even greater FFP headroom than us.
They may not be fabulous, but I struggle to see why people are trying to put them down.

As I say, I hope I have under-estimated Gibson.
I did so regarding the conversion of £106m debt to equity recently, but in reality he had no alternative but to do that at some time - and was almost certainly tied into doing it to pass earlier FFP tests.
 
BoroMart said:
We certainly have been hot and cold.

Not many teams can go 7 without a win (chapter 1), followed by 6 wins on the bounce (chapter 2)?

We followed that with 2 wins in 8 (chapter 3), then won 4 out of our next 5 (chapter 4).

then we had 1 win in 7 (chapter 5), then 9 unbeaten (chapter 6).

It's been a real feast and famine season.

So whats the story behind each chapter?

Chapter 1 - 7 without a win. Regardless of what peoples view of Engel and Bangura are, they're both better than Coulson as LBs, and that was a key issue in chapter 1. We also failed to get our striker in, and had to play our low scoring young 10 as a CF. We cannot allow this to happen next season. We need to get our key gaps resolved during pre-season.

Chapter 2 - 6 wins on the bounce. Full strength, we had 2 fit CFs, we regularly had a bench of experienced players and we started to find form, with an impressive winning streak . 10 different goalscorers in those games.

Chapter 3 - 2 wins in 8 - the first wave of injuries start to bite, Smith, Lenihan, Coburn etc. Can't keep a consistent side on the pitch

Chapter 4 - win 4 out of 5 - Morgan Rogers starts to show his class.

Chapter 5 - 1 win in 7 Jan/Feb - The injury crisis collides with a cup run and leaves us without a CF, and Rogers gets sold leaving us without our creativity. We also have 1 CB

Chapter 6 - 9 unbeaten - CF is back, 2x CBs fit

When we haven't had square pegs in round holes, we've pretty much been a top play off side. We need a bit of luck with injuries, and to make sure we have more backup in each position next year. I'm confdent we can get off to a much better start than this season, it was always catch up and the club has to learn to get its business done early.
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I'd add to that chapter 1 and chapter 5 were periods where Isiah Jones spent far less tie on the pitch.

Up until a few games ago when i worked it out, we averaged 1.6 ppg with him starting games and less than 1 ppg when he doesn't start. His importance to our team cannot be underestimated.
 
Coventry did invest more than us by value in the Summer their purchases were more oven ready - nearly every player we bought needed quite a bit of developing, the only exception was O'Brien who played a couple of games and picked up a five month long injury.

Surely this Summer it will be a bit different with the Rogers and Crooks cash in the bank/coming through. We should be investing in July in several close to proven players.
 
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