Neil Warnock on Brexit: I cannot wait to get out of the EU!

Actually, I do know how it was won. It was won and it had all of the features I described. To accept a decision on the basis that those factors may not have played a part is a ludicrous position to adopt.

I’d have accepted any result that was delivered fairly and with a certain outcome. The 52% (demonstrably) didn’t all vote for the same thing and we are by any analysis being pushed along to a particular conclusion. To deny that is frankly naive.

And yes I am very, very certain as to the outcome of a no deal Brexit. Any right minded person ought to be. Everything I have been certain of so far has come to pass so yeah I’m pretty confident about that. There is simply no argument on the leave side. None. Except fish. And even that is a red herring. It can be dressed up as much as you like but Brexit was and is a scam. We are about to impose economic sanctions on ourselves at a time of extreme economic downturn. It’s abhorrent.

Last shot at genuine civility, because you are getting increasingly emotive.
In fairness:
You do not know how it was won.
You were certain the vote would be Remain.
You were certain there would be no solution to the Withdrawal deadlock.
You are now certain that there will inevitably be a no deal conclusion.
You are certain our world will be disastrous when we leave and seem happy to ignore Covid's impact.
Your certainties are really no more than incredibly strong opinions.

I find you one of the most thoughtful posters on the board and actually respect your deeply held views, but I think you need to consider that some of us don't have to be as naive as you state to have the temerity to disagree with you over this.
 
You spread doom and gloom and post about the dangers of any type of brexit. You referred to no mandate for no deal, as Indeedido implied, there was less mandate for remain. You have no power or authority to change the outcome. Brexit will happen I think no deal is less likely than you seem to, time will tell. The best outcome for the country is to try to work with the outcome not fight something that will happen and can not be stopped. We have left the EU. I believe a deal will happen, both sides will claim to be the victors. We will not be the last to leave either, that is the EU fear that the UK becomes succesful that is why they wish to ‘bully’ us to spread fear to the likes of Italy and others.The EU is like a controlling partner. Sometimes leaving is the right thing to do.

Again, no actual arguments whatsoever. Actually there was not less of a mandate for no deal than remain. That's factually inaccurate. No deal was explicitly and specifically ruled out.
 
I really can't see what all the worry is about....We have Johnson,Gove, Raab, Mogg,....all these,and other, Tory heavyweights looking after our best intrests with the leave deal,no deal negotiations, what could possibly go wrong.....if they hadle Brexit a quarter as well as the Pandemic, well......................were fcuked!
 
Last shot at genuine civility, because you are getting increasingly emotive.
In fairness:
You do not know how it was won.
You were certain the vote would be Remain.
You were certain there would be no solution to the Withdrawal deadlock.
You are now certain that there will inevitably be a no deal conclusion.
You are certain our world will be disastrous when we leave and seem happy to ignore Covid's impact.
Your certainties are really no more than incredibly strong opinions.

I find you one of the most thoughtful posters on the board and actually respect your deeply held views, but I think you need to consider that some of us don't have to be as naive as you state to have the temerity to disagree with you over this.

I'm not getting at all emotive.

I've described the features of the campaign that won.

I was not certain which way the vote would go.

There wasn't a solution to the Withdrawal deadlock. Johnson capitulated on every one of the red lines he and the ERG muppets put in place and then made public promises that bore no resemblance to the deal itself that in many ways was worse than that which May had negotiated. The tension between what he has promised and what he agreed to is now laid bare for all to see.

I think no deal is virtually certain now. There isn't the time to negotiate anything meaningful, we now know that there has to be border checks, there's the whole LPF mess and virtually no progress is being made. How many trade deals have ever been completed in this timeframe with such fundamental problems? Answer: none.

COVID is, predictably, going to be used as the smokescreen for the inevitable economic devastation that Brexit will cause by any economic analysis and any reasonable assessment, including those of our own government. To deny that is wishful thinking. Economic sanctions at a time of economic crisis is suicidal.

Disagree all you want but here we are four year son and still there hasn't been a single persuasive argument in favour of Brexit in any form but certainly not a no deal Brexit.
 
I’d like the debate to move on. It’s irreversible anyway and we are stuck with this government for at least 4 more years. At least 4 more years.

Even if this government Is John Majors on speed and without a decent man like Major in charge, even if Starmer is as skilful and appealing a politician as Blair, it is still going to be extremely hard for Labour to win the next election, particularly outright. Scotland and Northern Ireland will either have forced independence or it will be a condition of any coalition to have another vote.

So the most important thing for me now is for people to make better decisions. This means understanding why we are all stupid a lot of the time and analysing our previous errors and trying to correct for them in future before we make them again.

The next most important thing after that is addressing the political system in the U.K. which has had some fundamental flaws revealed quite starkly in the last few years.

It is not going to be in the nature of the Conservatives to address them in any meaningful way. Apart from it being mostly beneficial to them, the name of the party is a clue.

Personally, I’d welcome some reasoned debate about decision making in general and then seeing if we can apply some agreed best practice to some of the more contentious issues of the past, such as Iraq, Brexit, the Covid response etc.

I’m not afraid, once common ground is found on an agreed best practice how to make decisions, to put my reasoning up for scrutiny to see how well I applied this best practice. i just can’t seem to find anyone who is on the other side to me politically (Conservative, Brexiter) equally prepared to do the same. It’s almost like people would rather not explore the possibility they are indeed sometimes really quite stupid for fear it will force them to some introspection and humility.

If nothing else we should learn we all struggle badly with cognitive dissonance sometimes.
 
Here we go - accusing the EU of bullying. They are just protecting themselves and who can blame them? Johnson et. al. were forever going on about their oven-ready deal. Shame they don't even have an oven.
I am not blaming them at all. It is a natural negotiating protective stance, I do not blame them. However I live in the UK and don't appreciate it. A bit like many Americans don't like Trumps bullying i guess. The facts are it is happening, so as a nation we need to make the best of it. I voted for a party offering a second referendum to give remain another chance to be fair, the country did not so we get on with it or sleepwalk to failure via bickering
 
I really can't see what all the worry is about....We have Johnson,Gove, Raab, Mogg,....all these,and other, Tory heavyweights looking after our best intrests with the leave deal,no deal negotiations, what could possibly go wrong.....if they hadle Brexit a quarter as well as the Pandemic, well......................were fcuked!

Don't forget, after failing to win a rigged election our secret weapon, Chris Grayling is free and ready to step off the bench if needed. Hardly seems fair on the EU to unleash him just yet though.
 
These are all valid points. Now be objective and weigh them up against the negatives. The increased unskilled immigration which causes competition for jobs, houses and public services. The export of jobs from the UK to those countries which is a benefit for the big businesses but a negative for the workers. The dilution of UK vote strength by having additional members. The additional cost to the UK of those countries being net receivers.

I don't doubt that we, as an economy, benefit from trading with Romania but the vast majority of those benefits are for global companies having access to cheap labour, middle class Londeners wanting cheap cleaners or human traffickers after an easy route for their "products". There are more negatives that individuals in the lowest economic group will suffer because of that trade.

Then answer honestly what you think the result of a referendum asking us whether or not to allow Romania etc. to be EU members would be.

I know exactly what a referendum on the entry of these countries would be. But as I said - interests and values don't always marry up, hence why we have Brexit.

I also don't agree with your reading of this. Firstly, the UK economy, like it or not, is built on cheap labour and whatever Mr Johnson et al have told you, it isn't going to change if they ever deliver and 'level up' the regions. Look at the fruit rotting in Lincolnshire, the special flights put on from Ukraine for agricultural workers and tell me there's competition for these jobs? Ever been to a cafe in a major city in this country? They pay the living wage and they're staffed exclusively with immigrants.

Also building houses, developing new jobs in run down regions and investing in public services is a domestic decision - one that could be solved by our government if they wished. Immigrants make a net contribution to the economy, so they wouldnt affect this decision.

Blaming immigrants for problems caused by successive governments is an absolute cop out. One too many are happy to make.
 
The very fact that coluka is saying this deal xould avoid 'Hard Brexit' shows he doesn't know what he's talking about. It's already here, there will be checks at the border and a completely new customs regime - the government are already advertising it!

https://www.gov.uk/transition?utm_c...KoGpzGVe0s-UJWc5aS6fbnhJeY5QTcNRoCg1QQAvD_BwE

Why not wait and see what the "deal" actually is?
It's perhaps worth pointing out you have no other option anyway.
"Hard Brexit" is another one of those terms that is not precise and clearly means different things to different people.
A deal could (and I think will) be reached that will be a strong Trade Deal without quotas and tariffs and with minimised policing.
IF that happens then I think it is fair to say that my interpretation of Hard Brexit has been avoided.
It may not be yours White Feather Italian man, but it is valid.
 
I know exactly what a referendum on the entry of these countries would be. But as I said - interests and values don't always marry up, hence why we have Brexit.

I also don't agree with your reading of this. Firstly, the UK economy, like it or not, is built on cheap labour and whatever Mr Johnson et al have told you, it isn't going to change if they ever deliver and 'level up' the regions. Look at the fruit rotting in Lincolnshire, the special flights put on from Ukraine for agricultural workers and tell me there's competition for these jobs? Ever been to a cafe in a major city in this country? They pay the living wage and they're staffed exclusively with immigrants.

Also building houses, developing new jobs in run down regions and investing in public services is a domestic decision - one that could be solved by our government if they wished. Immigrants make a net contribution to the economy, so they wouldnt affect this decision.

Blaming immigrants for problems caused by successive governments is an absolute cop out. One too many are happy to make.

How virtuous of you... Do you actually believe that any of that is a good argument? This country is built on rich people doing what they want and taking the **** out of the poor that have no choice, that's not going to change bla bla bla. See how ridiculous that is?

It is impressive that you will selflessly let in all of these immigrants that you freely admit is just to take advantage of cheap labour so you can get cheap fruit and veg and you don't pay too much in the cafe. So much for what is best for the people in society, all you are interested in is the bottom line for the money men. You have also freely admitted that we have made decisions that the majority of the country don't want to be made but you think your choice should trump theirs because you are smarter. **** democracy eh?

This perfectly tells the story of the middle class remainers. It is purely selfish. It will cost the middle classes more, the people that voted for it, the poorest in society that actually face the extra competition and longer queues for house are the ones that voted for change and the people that lose out for once haven't stopped crying about it since.

However, nobody is blaming immigrants. They are blaming unlimited unskilled immigration. We should be bringing in immigrants where we need them because we have skills gaps and yes, that includes all of the NHS nurses etc where we have gaps. It doesn't include jobs where you need no experience or qualifications. If people aren't doing those jobs now it is because there are better jobs available for the same money and so they are underpaid. Pay people more and the jobs will get done but your strawberries might cost you an extra quid.
 
How virtuous of you... Do you actually believe that any of that is a good argument? This country is built on rich people doing what they want and taking the **** out of the poor that have no choice, that's not going to change bla bla bla. See how ridiculous that is?

It is impressive that you will selflessly let in all of these immigrants that you freely admit is just to take advantage of cheap labour so you can get cheap fruit and veg and you don't pay too much in the cafe. So much for what is best for the people in society, all you are interested in is the bottom line for the money men. You have also freely admitted that we have made decisions that the majority of the country don't want to be made but you think your choice should trump theirs because you are smarter. **** democracy eh?

This perfectly tells the story of the middle class remainers. It is purely selfish. It will cost the middle classes more, the people that voted for it, the poorest in society that actually face the extra competition and longer queues for house are the ones that voted for change and the people that lose out for once haven't stopped crying about it since.

However, nobody is blaming immigrants. They are blaming unlimited unskilled immigration. We should be bringing in immigrants where we need them because we have skills gaps and yes, that includes all of the NHS nurses etc where we have gaps. It doesn't include jobs where you need no experience or qualifications. If people aren't doing those jobs now it is because there are better jobs available for the same money and so they are underpaid. Pay people more and the jobs will get done but your strawberries might cost you an extra quid.

A high quality post Michael.
 
How virtuous of you... Do you actually believe that any of that is a good argument? This country is built on rich people doing what they want and taking the **** out of the poor that have no choice, that's not going to change bla bla bla. See how ridiculous that is?

It is impressive that you will selflessly let in all of these immigrants that you freely admit is just to take advantage of cheap labour so you can get cheap fruit and veg and you don't pay too much in the cafe. So much for what is best for the people in society, all you are interested in is the bottom line for the money men. You have also freely admitted that we have made decisions that the majority of the country don't want to be made but you think your choice should trump theirs because you are smarter. **** democracy eh?

This perfectly tells the story of the middle class remainers. It is purely selfish. It will cost the middle classes more, the people that voted for it, the poorest in society that actually face the extra competition and longer queues for house are the ones that voted for change and the people that lose out for once haven't stopped crying about it since.

However, nobody is blaming immigrants. They are blaming unlimited unskilled immigration. We should be bringing in immigrants where we need them because we have skills gaps and yes, that includes all of the NHS nurses etc where we have gaps. It doesn't include jobs where you need no experience or qualifications. If people aren't doing those jobs now it is because there are better jobs available for the same money and so they are underpaid. Pay people more and the jobs will get done but your strawberries might cost you an extra quid.

The thing is - I agree with a lot of what you've said here, but your blind hatred of the chimera of 'unskilled immigration' (i.e. people who work hard and contribute to society, but come from somewhere else) has blinded you to the fact that Brexit in and of itself doesn't solve any of these problems. Definitely not the Brexit were getting under this government.

The immigration bill is tough on paper, but if you for one minute think that the various carve outs won't be used to help big business, you're mad.

Moan all you want about the made up middle class remainer you think I am - doesn't change the fact that the problems you've outlined aren't caused by immigration.

And as for the price of strawberries - food prices rising is a massively working class concern. And brexit will only make it worse. You act like we'll become Australia overnight with a high wage economy. Look who is running the country.

I won't go into the housing issue here - but if you think it's immigrants, rather than the army of buy to let landlords and various other multiple property owners - then you're mad.
 
Why not wait and see what the "deal" actually is?
It's perhaps worth pointing out you have no other option anyway.
"Hard Brexit" is another one of those terms that is not precise and clearly means different things to different people.
A deal could (and I think will) be reached that will be a strong Trade Deal without quotas and tariffs and with minimised policing.
IF that happens then I think it is fair to say that my interpretation of Hard Brexit has been avoided.
It may not be yours White Feather Italian man, but it is valid.

Well, firstly it is very clear what the deal has to entail. The Withdrawal Agreement is really quite clear. The MPs that were foaming at the mouth over May's deal simply didn't read Johnson's version and instead believed his lies around the Irish border, LPF etc etc. Those chickens are coming home to roost as we, self evidently, not only renege on the political declaration but have made unkeepable internal promises to Parliament and to the people around the legally binding aspects too. Just months ago this government said they had an 'Over Ready Deal' and won an election on the basis that there would be no more problems. Now they reject their own deal, effectively coming out to descirbe how poor the very deal they have made is!

The EU cannot, for obvious reasons, 'capitulate' on those things. The only route to a deal is if we do. What you have just described therefore seems like fantasy to me. The very nature of what the UK government wants pushes us towards a hard Brexit whether that be with or without a deal. I'd be really (and genuinely) interested as to the evidence you would point to to support the notion that we will get a "strong Trade Deal without quotas and tariffs and with minimised policing".

How virtuous of you... Do you actually believe that any of that is a good argument? This country is built on rich people doing what they want and taking the **** out of the poor that have no choice, that's not going to change bla bla bla. See how ridiculous that is?

It is impressive that you will selflessly let in all of these immigrants that you freely admit is just to take advantage of cheap labour so you can get cheap fruit and veg and you don't pay too much in the cafe. So much for what is best for the people in society, all you are interested in is the bottom line for the money men. You have also freely admitted that we have made decisions that the majority of the country don't want to be made but you think your choice should trump theirs because you are smarter. **** democracy eh?

This perfectly tells the story of the middle class remainers. It is purely selfish. It will cost the middle classes more, the people that voted for it, the poorest in society that actually face the extra competition and longer queues for house are the ones that voted for change and the people that lose out for once haven't stopped crying about it since.

However, nobody is blaming immigrants. They are blaming unlimited unskilled immigration. We should be bringing in immigrants where we need them because we have skills gaps and yes, that includes all of the NHS nurses etc where we have gaps. It doesn't include jobs where you need no experience or qualifications. If people aren't doing those jobs now it is because there are better jobs available for the same money and so they are underpaid. Pay people more and the jobs will get done but your strawberries might cost you an extra quid.

What a gross mischaracterisation of the argument. Dismissing people as selfish middle class remainers is such a lazy and offensive position to adopt. I am not even sure you believe that "if people aren't doing those jobs now it is because there are better jobs available for the same money and so they are underpaid." which is self evidently not accurate.

And as I am sure you know, it is a myth anyway. Whilst immigration does affect the lowest waged workers the most negatively, the effect is small and short-term. What we do know is that immigration is not the major cause of wage depression and not the cause of any housing shortages and even if it were, Brexit wouldn't solve those problems. What Brexit will do, however, is cause an increase in the price of most goods inclduing and especially food.
 
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The thing is - I agree with a lot of what you've said here, but your blind hatred of the chimera of 'unskilled immigration' (i.e. people who work hard and contribute to society, but come from somewhere else) has blinded you to the fact that Brexit in and of itself doesn't solve any of these problems. Definitely not the Brexit were getting under this government.

I don't have a hatred for unskilled immigration. I have an understanding of its effects. The problems are purely numerical. We can't keep importing people without investing in the infrastructure to support them and even if we wanted to there is no way to stop people coming. I don't believe the Tories will do much to bring the numbers down to be honest, they represent big businesses as well as anyone, and they definitely won't invest in the required infrastructure. My hope is that Labour will come to their senses. This is the number one reason Labour have lost millions of voters though because instead of promoting policies that protect the people they have always claimed to represent, the workers, they are promoting labour competition which benefits the businesses. They've got themselves upside down in their attempt to show how virtuous they are and it has cost them badly.

What a gross mischaracterisation of the argument. Dismissing people as selfish middle class remainers is such a lazy and offensive position to adopt. I am not even sure you believe that "if people aren't doing those jobs now it is because there are better jobs available for the same money and so they are underpaid." which is self evidently not accurate.

Of course it is true. You have the choice of retail, fast food, bar work or fruit/veg picking and caring etc. Those are easy in comparison to backbreaking work picking fruit/veg for the same money, less when you take out the cost of living in a shipping container with 7 other people in the middle of nowhere. They're much easier jobs than caring for someone, washing and dressing them etc. If you had the choice of both which would you choose? If one of them paid significantly more than the other then you might have something to think about. Those jobs should be competing in a limited labour supply which drives up wages at the bottom but costs at the top i.e. transfer of wealth from rich to poor. If you allow an unlimited labour supply then there is no incentive to raise wages.

And as I am sure you know, it is a myth anyway. Whilst immigration does affect the lowest waged workers the most negatively, the effect is small and short-term. What we do know is that immigration is not the major cause of wage depression and not the cause of any housing shortages and even if it were, Brexit wouldn't solve those problems.
It's not a myth. Immigration is good for the economy but not the majority of people in the economy. Like low wages are good for Sports Direct as a company but not for the employees working there.

Not the most negatively, just negatively. It affects the higher paid positively because they take advantage of the cheap labour and get their goods and services cheaper. There are studies, which I know we have covered before, which show that the bottom 10% wages are 5% lower than they would be without unlimited EU immigration, the top 10% are 5% higher. That is a widening of the gap between rich and poor. I agree that it isn't the major cause but it is a cause and that is good enough for me to think that there should be some control. Unlimited is not sustainable and it gets worse the better our country gets. The stronger our economy becomes the more incentive there is for people to move here. It is lunacy to think that not being able to control the number of people that need access to public services is a good idea.

What Brexit will do, however, is cause an increase in the price of most goods inclduing and especially food.
Not having to be stuck in the EU protectionist regime means access to cheaper food from around the world that are currently subject to high tariffs.
 
I don't have a hatred for unskilled immigration. I have an understanding of its effects. The problems are purely numerical. We can't keep importing people without investing in the infrastructure to support them and even if we wanted to there is no way to stop people coming. I don't believe the Tories will do much to bring the numbers down to be honest, they represent big businesses as well as anyone, and they definitely won't invest in the required infrastructure. My hope is that Labour will come to their senses. This is the number one reason Labour have lost millions of voters though because instead of promoting policies that protect the people they have always claimed to represent, the workers, they are promoting labour competition which benefits the businesses. They've got themselves upside down in their attempt to show how virtuous they are and it has cost them badly.



Of course it is true. You have the choice of retail, fast food, bar work or fruit/veg picking and caring etc. Those are easy in comparison to backbreaking work picking fruit/veg for the same money, less when you take out the cost of living in a shipping container with 7 other people in the middle of nowhere. They're much easier jobs than caring for someone, washing and dressing them etc. If you had the choice of both which would you choose? If one of them paid significantly more than the other then you might have something to think about. Those jobs should be competing in a limited labour supply which drives up wages at the bottom but costs at the top i.e. transfer of wealth from rich to poor. If you allow an unlimited labour supply then there is no incentive to raise wages.


It's not a myth. Immigration is good for the economy but not the majority of people in the economy. Like low wages are good for Sports Direct as a company but not for the employees working there.

Not the most negatively, just negatively. It affects the higher paid positively because they take advantage of the cheap labour and get their goods and services cheaper. There are studies, which I know we have covered before, which show that the bottom 10% wages are 5% lower than they would be without unlimited EU immigration, the top 10% are 5% higher. That is a widening of the gap between rich and poor. I agree that it isn't the major cause but it is a cause and that is good enough for me to think that there should be some control. Unlimited is not sustainable and it gets worse the better our country gets. The stronger our economy becomes the more incentive there is for people to move here. It is lunacy to think that not being able to control the number of people that need access to public services is a good idea.


Not having to be stuck in the EU protectionist regime means access to cheaper food from around the world that are currently subject to high tariffs.

Before I reply to all of that - how do I split the quotes out in the way you just have??? :D
 
Highlight the bit of text and Reply will pop up

Thanks Mike.

I don't have a hatred for unskilled immigration. I have an understanding of its effects. The problems are purely numerical. We can't keep importing people without investing in the infrastructure to support them and even if we wanted to there is no way to stop people coming. I don't believe the Tories will do much to bring the numbers down to be honest, they represent big businesses as well as anyone, and they definitely won't invest in the required infrastructure. My hope is that Labour will come to their senses. This is the number one reason Labour have lost millions of voters though because instead of promoting policies that protect the people they have always claimed to represent, the workers, they are promoting labour competition which benefits the businesses. They've got themselves upside down in their attempt to show how virtuous they are and it has cost them badly.

The studies do not support that argument. It is not possible to say with certainty what effect migration has on the cost, availability and quality of public services. Of course migrants contribute to demand for public services but it is far from certain that such impact is material. It is far more likely that the savage cuts imposed under this and previous governments are the root cause of any shortages. What we do know with certainty is that migration not only has a net positive economic impact but that also migrants contribute hugely to the provision of health and social care.

Of course it is true. You have the choice of retail, fast food, bar work or fruit/veg picking and caring etc. Those are easy in comparison to backbreaking work picking fruit/veg for the same money, less when you take out the cost of living in a shipping container with 7 other people in the middle of nowhere. They're much easier jobs than caring for someone, washing and dressing them etc. If you had the choice of both which would you choose? If one of them paid significantly more than the other then you might have something to think about. Those jobs should be competing in a limited labour supply which drives up wages at the bottom but costs at the top i.e. transfer of wealth from rich to poor. If you allow an unlimited labour supply then there is no incentive to raise wages.

It's not a myth. Immigration is good for the economy but not the majority of people in the economy. Like low wages are good for Sports Direct as a company but not for the employees working there.

Not the most negatively, just negatively. It affects the higher paid positively because they take advantage of the cheap labour and get their goods and services cheaper. There are studies, which I know we have covered before, which show that the bottom 10% wages are 5% lower than they would be without unlimited EU immigration, the top 10% are 5% higher. That is a widening of the gap between rich and poor. I agree that it isn't the major cause but it is a cause and that is good enough for me to think that there should be some control. Unlimited is not sustainable and it gets worse the better our country gets. The stronger our economy becomes the more incentive there is for people to move here. It is lunacy to think that not being able to control the number of people that need access to public services is a good idea.

I am not arguing against any immigration control whatsoever. That's good policy and for the reasons you've mentioned. But it really is the thin end of the wedge. It's like dealing with a really small leak in the kitchen whilst the bathroom floods above your head. The effects are not in any way material and are generally short term. But most importantly, we already had these controls at our disposal as an EU member. We chose not to implement them. And Brexit, in any form, does not and will not solve this problem.
 
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