Disgruntled chum.
"I am not a happy camper today.
There are 3 reasons for this, all of them political.
The first one is Germany being a bad actor.
Not only have they not cleared tanks, but they have also not delivered as promised.
Just one example, they promised a Patriot system to Ukraine, this was a lie. It stopped in Poland, and it is not gonna move anytime soon. They are also witholding a lot more.
This is why the Netherlands had to pledge a second Patriot system.
Secondly, someone better talk to Estonia before they start a war that they can't even participate in.
First they promised all their western artillery to Ukraine, this is just foolhardy bravado, and increases the strain on Sweden, Finland and Poland to defend them. Not a wise choice.
Then they got into a spat with Russia, that Russia started. Anyway, both sides are closing their embassies. Something that have a nasty habbit of ending up with bullets flying.
Then they bloody went and probably started a war.
Without consulting with the other two Baltic nations, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Poland or Denmark they decided to extend their territorial water, and to forbid Russian ships to move through there. Complete with inspections of ships etcetera...
Absolutely beautiful, we have to fight a war they can't fight.
Meh...
Thirdly, Erdögan just announced that we will not be allowed into NATO.
Sweden is about to go apeshit bonkers with Turkey in so many nasty ways it is impossible right now to understand.
Turkey will end up on a dungheap after this, we never forget, we never forgive. For the next 100 years we will make the life of Turkey into a living hell.
And we will still end up in NATO, albeit a few months later.
So, gloriously monumental MEH!!! is in order today.
Islands in the Stream
Hidden behind the news from Kreminna/Svatove, Bakhmut, Soledar, Belarus, Russian Offensives, Vamoosing Leopards and Zhaporizhzhia, something has started that has mainly been missed by most.
That is that Ukraine a week ago slowly started to increase their artillery attacks in Southern Kherson.
A bit every day, but the increase was steady.
Methodically they are hammering out bases, command posts, depots, artillery systems, etcetera.
It got so bad that in true Russian fashion the commanders abandoned their troops.
Here I would like to get back to the position at Kinburn Spit.
It is fitting in with this strategy, to slowly build up force over time.
Same goes with those small units left behind unnoticed as our favourite colonel galumphed about behind the lines for a short stint. It was cover for leaving special forces units for a long mission to do sabotage and spot enemy positions.
Two days ago something new started, Ukraine moved in counterfire artillery and counterartillery radars, and demolished the Russian artillery that was sitting on the islands in the delta of river Dnipro.
At point blank range for artillery (7km), there was not much the Russians could do more than to die.
Today Ukraine took out a couple of river boats used by the Russians, and continued to hammer anything Russian on the Islands.
Fun part, the Russian river boats was classified as a counter-attack, this means that the Ukrainians now are on the islands.
Now, about 5 months ago Ukraine received quite a bit of armoured river boats, if memory serves there was about 100 of them.
And they have received a ridiculous amount of bridging equipment, that is obviously not gonna work across the Dnipro, but it will work over the smaller rivers and tributaries in the Delta.
Kherson
I have as you remember always argued that an amphibious assault across into Kherson would make so much sense if the goal is to take Crimea by autumn.
And this is exactly how I would do it.
Hammer the Russian defence on the islands, take them in rapid amphibious landings covered by artillery from the high ground on the Ukrainian side of Dnipro, pull up barges from ports down stream in the night behind the islands.
Put on bridging equipment and heavy equipment and start bridging all the way to firm land.
There are 5 different roads that can be taken this way.
Create a bridgehead in Southern Kherson and just pump in heavy equipment as fast as humanly possible behind the artillery screen of longer range western artillery and missiles.
Hammer straight down for the landspit to Crimea, spread out and clear Kherson to the West, push towards the East to get a safe zone.
Blow up the Kersh Bridge.
And sit down and do some creative Borstjing of the Russian defences of the Crimean landspit until it is time for the summer offensive, blow through the landspit (probably with a few amphibious elements again.
And then start to gnaw on Crimea until it is time for the autumn offensive, then take the entire shebang.
I am slowly becoming ever more certain that his is what will happen is some form.
It does not exclude cutting the northern logistics route through Luhansk, but liberating the entirety of Luhansk just creates an enormous salient surrounded on 3 sides with Russian held frontlines.
Donetsk is cute and would make them hopping mad, but it also does not really lead anywhere.
Zhaporizhzhia and takin Melitopol and Tokmak and going down to Berdiansk would also put them into a giant **** salient with Russians being able to relentlessly attack them from 3 directions at the same time.
Kherson would give a Landspit to hold, and artillery would shut that down rapidly, and East towards Melitopol. And in that direction the new armour would have a field day with the Russians in the open terrain.
They could probably push all the way towards Melitopol over time, and then it would be Ukraine having the Russians in A giant arsed salient and be able to push down from the North.
It is also the spot that is furthest away from any Russian reinforcements.
It would take weeks for Russia to move those newly trained equiped troops down there, and there is nothing else available for Russia.
The rest is occupied by their own offensives, and Ukrainian liberation offensives.
Conclusion
If we see continued heavy activity lasting weeks it is a dead certainty that they will go ahead with this.
And with the large Russian offensive seemingly cancelled I have a warm and fuzzy feeling that Ukraine is about to interpret payback in the most literal way possible.
I think they will start the big offensive on the 24th of February if weather allows, otherwise as near to that as possible.
That should give my favourite colonel ample time to finish dawdling with Kreminna and Svatove.
She is just being careful with the civilians in Kreminna, the battle could be over in a day if she really pushed things.
Let us say a week, then a week of resting.
Two weeks to get warm again in the CV90 clothes and haul **** southwards and do what she does best in life, slam right into a hotspot and break through without any niceties whatsoever.
Especially since the existing artillery would by then have done the legwork and her Archers and Himars could do precission sniping to keep the crossing safe by outranging and outhitting anything Russian.
She would just leapfrog the islands on pontoon bridges and start to spread pain in the Russian posterior, something she is uniquely good at.
I will leave it at that."
Plus an addendum to the previous missive in answer to questions about the number of article exorting Ukraine to wait.
"The waiting articles are carefully planted, Ukraine is in a better position than generally believed.
Nothing has changed for them since the big Luhansk and Kherson advances, if anything they are by now stronger.
And the Ramstein8 package is amply enough for a very hard offensive, and Ukraine is already trained on a lot of the stuff.
Let us just say that my favourite colonel had a couple of thousend collegues going around in Europe and the US to train.
I was just lucky to ge the best one of them.
It is the contrasting one that is true.
Without the big mobilisation Russia is over-stretched and they really do lack equipment.
They know they are in **** creek, and that it is just becoming more brown and smelly by the day.
Remember that every clear day we count every single piece of equipment Russia has, and we get figures of what Ukraine has on almost a daily basis.
So, I always knew the accurate numbers down to almost the individual tank on each side.
This is why I say that Russia is in an abysmal place, and they should defend and not go on any offensives. Not that it makes a lot of a difference, Ukraine has a tremendous artillery advantage due to range and precission.
Both sides fire around 2 500 shells per day, but Ukraine has a 10:1 kill ratio over the Russians due to precission and range.
Russia is longterm effed even if Ukraine would not perform an offensive, they could win the war on Borstjing alone.
The only reason for an offensive is to cut the war short and limit civilian casualties."
And in answer to @Lefty, current Russian intelligence is not a lot better than before, but he qualifies that by saying it wasn't nearly as bad as reported last year (more bad decisions made politically, carried out by commanders).
But he is working on something that, when he finishes writing ... in the near future, that might explain and answer your queries more fully. But he has to present it as a briefing first.
"I am not a happy camper today.
There are 3 reasons for this, all of them political.
The first one is Germany being a bad actor.
Not only have they not cleared tanks, but they have also not delivered as promised.
Just one example, they promised a Patriot system to Ukraine, this was a lie. It stopped in Poland, and it is not gonna move anytime soon. They are also witholding a lot more.
This is why the Netherlands had to pledge a second Patriot system.
Secondly, someone better talk to Estonia before they start a war that they can't even participate in.
First they promised all their western artillery to Ukraine, this is just foolhardy bravado, and increases the strain on Sweden, Finland and Poland to defend them. Not a wise choice.
Then they got into a spat with Russia, that Russia started. Anyway, both sides are closing their embassies. Something that have a nasty habbit of ending up with bullets flying.
Then they bloody went and probably started a war.
Without consulting with the other two Baltic nations, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Poland or Denmark they decided to extend their territorial water, and to forbid Russian ships to move through there. Complete with inspections of ships etcetera...
Absolutely beautiful, we have to fight a war they can't fight.
Meh...
Thirdly, Erdögan just announced that we will not be allowed into NATO.
Sweden is about to go apeshit bonkers with Turkey in so many nasty ways it is impossible right now to understand.
Turkey will end up on a dungheap after this, we never forget, we never forgive. For the next 100 years we will make the life of Turkey into a living hell.
And we will still end up in NATO, albeit a few months later.
So, gloriously monumental MEH!!! is in order today.
Islands in the Stream
Hidden behind the news from Kreminna/Svatove, Bakhmut, Soledar, Belarus, Russian Offensives, Vamoosing Leopards and Zhaporizhzhia, something has started that has mainly been missed by most.
That is that Ukraine a week ago slowly started to increase their artillery attacks in Southern Kherson.
A bit every day, but the increase was steady.
Methodically they are hammering out bases, command posts, depots, artillery systems, etcetera.
It got so bad that in true Russian fashion the commanders abandoned their troops.
Here I would like to get back to the position at Kinburn Spit.
It is fitting in with this strategy, to slowly build up force over time.
Same goes with those small units left behind unnoticed as our favourite colonel galumphed about behind the lines for a short stint. It was cover for leaving special forces units for a long mission to do sabotage and spot enemy positions.
Two days ago something new started, Ukraine moved in counterfire artillery and counterartillery radars, and demolished the Russian artillery that was sitting on the islands in the delta of river Dnipro.
At point blank range for artillery (7km), there was not much the Russians could do more than to die.
Today Ukraine took out a couple of river boats used by the Russians, and continued to hammer anything Russian on the Islands.
Fun part, the Russian river boats was classified as a counter-attack, this means that the Ukrainians now are on the islands.
Now, about 5 months ago Ukraine received quite a bit of armoured river boats, if memory serves there was about 100 of them.
And they have received a ridiculous amount of bridging equipment, that is obviously not gonna work across the Dnipro, but it will work over the smaller rivers and tributaries in the Delta.
Kherson
I have as you remember always argued that an amphibious assault across into Kherson would make so much sense if the goal is to take Crimea by autumn.
And this is exactly how I would do it.
Hammer the Russian defence on the islands, take them in rapid amphibious landings covered by artillery from the high ground on the Ukrainian side of Dnipro, pull up barges from ports down stream in the night behind the islands.
Put on bridging equipment and heavy equipment and start bridging all the way to firm land.
There are 5 different roads that can be taken this way.
Create a bridgehead in Southern Kherson and just pump in heavy equipment as fast as humanly possible behind the artillery screen of longer range western artillery and missiles.
Hammer straight down for the landspit to Crimea, spread out and clear Kherson to the West, push towards the East to get a safe zone.
Blow up the Kersh Bridge.
And sit down and do some creative Borstjing of the Russian defences of the Crimean landspit until it is time for the summer offensive, blow through the landspit (probably with a few amphibious elements again.
And then start to gnaw on Crimea until it is time for the autumn offensive, then take the entire shebang.
I am slowly becoming ever more certain that his is what will happen is some form.
It does not exclude cutting the northern logistics route through Luhansk, but liberating the entirety of Luhansk just creates an enormous salient surrounded on 3 sides with Russian held frontlines.
Donetsk is cute and would make them hopping mad, but it also does not really lead anywhere.
Zhaporizhzhia and takin Melitopol and Tokmak and going down to Berdiansk would also put them into a giant **** salient with Russians being able to relentlessly attack them from 3 directions at the same time.
Kherson would give a Landspit to hold, and artillery would shut that down rapidly, and East towards Melitopol. And in that direction the new armour would have a field day with the Russians in the open terrain.
They could probably push all the way towards Melitopol over time, and then it would be Ukraine having the Russians in A giant arsed salient and be able to push down from the North.
It is also the spot that is furthest away from any Russian reinforcements.
It would take weeks for Russia to move those newly trained equiped troops down there, and there is nothing else available for Russia.
The rest is occupied by their own offensives, and Ukrainian liberation offensives.
Conclusion
If we see continued heavy activity lasting weeks it is a dead certainty that they will go ahead with this.
And with the large Russian offensive seemingly cancelled I have a warm and fuzzy feeling that Ukraine is about to interpret payback in the most literal way possible.
I think they will start the big offensive on the 24th of February if weather allows, otherwise as near to that as possible.
That should give my favourite colonel ample time to finish dawdling with Kreminna and Svatove.
She is just being careful with the civilians in Kreminna, the battle could be over in a day if she really pushed things.
Let us say a week, then a week of resting.
Two weeks to get warm again in the CV90 clothes and haul **** southwards and do what she does best in life, slam right into a hotspot and break through without any niceties whatsoever.
Especially since the existing artillery would by then have done the legwork and her Archers and Himars could do precission sniping to keep the crossing safe by outranging and outhitting anything Russian.
She would just leapfrog the islands on pontoon bridges and start to spread pain in the Russian posterior, something she is uniquely good at.
I will leave it at that."
Plus an addendum to the previous missive in answer to questions about the number of article exorting Ukraine to wait.
"The waiting articles are carefully planted, Ukraine is in a better position than generally believed.
Nothing has changed for them since the big Luhansk and Kherson advances, if anything they are by now stronger.
And the Ramstein8 package is amply enough for a very hard offensive, and Ukraine is already trained on a lot of the stuff.
Let us just say that my favourite colonel had a couple of thousend collegues going around in Europe and the US to train.
I was just lucky to ge the best one of them.
It is the contrasting one that is true.
Without the big mobilisation Russia is over-stretched and they really do lack equipment.
They know they are in **** creek, and that it is just becoming more brown and smelly by the day.
Remember that every clear day we count every single piece of equipment Russia has, and we get figures of what Ukraine has on almost a daily basis.
So, I always knew the accurate numbers down to almost the individual tank on each side.
This is why I say that Russia is in an abysmal place, and they should defend and not go on any offensives. Not that it makes a lot of a difference, Ukraine has a tremendous artillery advantage due to range and precission.
Both sides fire around 2 500 shells per day, but Ukraine has a 10:1 kill ratio over the Russians due to precission and range.
Russia is longterm effed even if Ukraine would not perform an offensive, they could win the war on Borstjing alone.
The only reason for an offensive is to cut the war short and limit civilian casualties."
And in answer to @Lefty, current Russian intelligence is not a lot better than before, but he qualifies that by saying it wasn't nearly as bad as reported last year (more bad decisions made politically, carried out by commanders).
But he is working on something that, when he finishes writing ... in the near future, that might explain and answer your queries more fully. But he has to present it as a briefing first.