How do they calculate xG?
It's fairly complicated, but it factors for chances created, and then whether they were wrong foot, correct foot, header, players positions etc, and gives a probability that the chance would be scored for the "average" player in that particular league, against an average keeper. It's the most accurate metric of chance creation for, and against, which is how a game is often assessed on what the result should have likely been.
Something like a penalty would be xG of 0.75, as a player would be expected to score 75% of the time, and a 2 yarder might be like 0.03, to reflect the 3% probability. Then these are summed up to like 0.78, so on an average of games you would expect to score once in ~4/5 of them.
Then the sum of all these chances is added up, to give you total xG and xGA, fo that game.
Our games are listed here, and you can click show xG to see what the chance creation was, you can click each game to see what made up those totals.
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Some teams score more than their xG if they have exceptional finishers, or just get lucky, and some get less if they finish poorly, or are unlucky.
I think xG points is calculated from If you have a higher xG (expected goals for) with a sufficient margin over the xGA (expected goals against) then you would be predicted a win, if it's close it goes down as a draw and if you're sufficiently behind then it goes down as a loss.
Some people don't agree with it, but they can't explain why, when you ask them about the detail.
I think it's a great tool/ indicator of how a game went and what the score should have roughly been, under "normal" circumstances. It marries up with my thought that we've missed far too many chances, and the opposition have been unexpectedly clinical.