Recession, inflation and interest rates

It’s quite clear we on the left have two answers currently to every problem, 1) brexit is to blame and b) the Tories are

We don’t deserve to govern andthe polls are showing the Tories ahead in one of the latest polls

I’m no expert on inflation but have seen enough experts speak and they’re not blaming brexit they’re saying the lockdown shut down economies and the ports became closed therefore container prices have risen and we are seeing impacts of global warming on costs where coffee is being destroyed and crops are failing as is wheat and we now import oil and gas from the Middle East at higher prices. Then the inflation is being driven by huge profits and the top companies are making huge profits

Nobody is talking about taxing the profits only making sure wages don’t go up when wages account for 7% of inflation and profits 79%

Labour are ignoring the problem and are saying growth growth growth which is what comes after inflation settles

The Lib Dem’s once again are in the lead talking about a price cap for October

The war in Europe has cut off gas and Germany’s export model is going to be hit and we import gas from Norway that day because of climate change they are rationing energy and the energy we buy off them will rise in price

I could go on and again the experts aren’t blaming brexit wages have gone up 4%

And somehow a biker incident is because of brexit

Seriously we have no short term solutions and no long term solutions and the Tories are going to get back in

No wonder they’re rising up the polls
hah hah, I would laugh if the situation weren’t so serious.
 
no both the Tories and new labour to blame
Poor attempt at false equivalence.

If everyone's getting blame then why isn't the labour left for pushing for Corbyn, who then got beat by a weak May, and then got battered by the biggest clown the UK has seen for a century.

Back in the world of reality, the Tories have done far more damage, and all labour can do is offer to plug holes in the boat, if they try and do any more they end up losing, and we get the clowns running the show again.
 
Poor attempt at false equivalence.

If everyone's getting blame then why isn't the labour left for pushing for Corbyn, who then got beat by a weak May, and then got battered by the biggest clown the UK has seen for a century.

Back in the world of reality, the Tories have done far more damage, and all labour can do is offer to plug holes in the boat, if they try and do any more they end up losing, and we get the clowns running the show again.
Because the left, even when they don't agree with the Labour right/centrists, generally bite their tongue and still vote for them. The centrists however sabotage and vote for someone else. Compromise only ever seems to go one way. The Blairites expect everyone to just back them because they aren't Tories and then do the opposite when it's somebody else's turn. Tories are Tories but the people that sabotage their own side and then demand unity when it suits them are hypocrites which is just as bad as the Tories.

We can all be on board with unity when we have a centrist leader but only if the centrists agree to do the same when the left are leading the party.
 
Poor attempt at false equivalence.

If everyone's getting blame then why isn't the labour left for pushing for Corbyn, who then got beat by a weak May, and then got battered by the biggest clown the UK has seen for a century.

Odd framing.

After the disaster under Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn increased Labour's vote share more than any of the party's leaders since 1945.

Theresa May lost her majority, and you're framing her as the winner.

Corbyn was "battered" in 2019 mainly because people believed the Tories would "get Brexit done" while Labour inspired by Starmer were offering a 2nd referendum.
 
Yeah but like I said we on the left don’t deserve to govern

If you don’t understand the situation how can you formulate a plan to tackle inflation

Labour as I said have no answer and too many replies here feel like the cause of inflation is being blamed on brexit and the Tories and working backward to make that answer work

People voting have more intelligence than to believe this rubbish but crack on

Just don’t moan when the Tories get back in, yeah? 👍
Hah, hah, you get funnier with every post, keep reading the Daily Mail, there is no alternative to austerity, or deficit cutting, or reducing public spending, or tax reductions - until the Tories want to do it….

The Tories have been all over the place on policy for the last 12 years and still are, look at Sunak and Truss now - they are diametrically opposed on many things.

Keep doffing your cap, oh and and don’t forget to donate to the food bank.
 
It’s quite clear we on the left have two answers currently to every problem, 1) brexit is to blame and b) the Tories are

We don’t deserve to govern andthe polls are showing the Tories ahead in one of the latest polls

I’m no expert on inflation but have seen enough experts speak and they’re not blaming brexit they’re saying the lockdown shut down economies and the ports became closed therefore container prices have risen and we are seeing impacts of global warming on costs where coffee is being destroyed and crops are failing as is wheat and we now import oil and gas from the Middle East at higher prices. Then the inflation is being driven by huge profits and the top companies are making huge profits

Nobody is talking about taxing the profits only making sure wages don’t go up when wages account for 7% of inflation and profits 79%

Labour are ignoring the problem and are saying growth growth growth which is what comes after inflation settles

The Lib Dem’s once again are in the lead talking about a price cap for October

The war in Europe has cut off gas and Germany’s export model is going to be hit and we import gas from Norway that day because of climate change they are rationing energy and the energy we buy off them will rise in price

I could go on and again the experts aren’t blaming brexit wages have gone up 4%

And somehow a biker incident is because of brexit

Seriously we have no short term solutions and no long term solutions and the Tories are going to get back in

No wonder they’re rising up the polls

I've never road so much rubbish in all my life.

Every expert I have seen on TV has said Brexit is the reason why our inflation is higher than the rest of Europe.

I have seen countless Labour MP's over the last few weeks talking about taxing profits - what was the windfall tax?

Polls putting Tories ahead of Labour? Ok.

It's the Tories that have no short term or long term solutions and the public know this. So why are they going to get in again?

The Lib Dems can say what they like - they aren't going to get into power.

Wages have risen 4%. Well that's depending on what you are comparing. In real terms they have dropped 5% (I presume you are using the 3.9% from 2015?) The only European countries that have seen a drop in real terms to 2015 were the UK, Greece and Portugal. (https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea036.pdf)

Your post stinks of the sunny Brexit uplands and 'none of this is my fault guv' which is the propaganda being pushed by Johnson over the last 2 years. Jesus wept 🤣
 
Odd framing.

After the disaster under Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn increased Labour's vote share more than any of the party's leaders since 1945.

Theresa May lost her majority, and you're framing her as the winner.

Corbyn was "battered" in 2019 mainly because people believed the Tories would "get Brexit done" while Labour inspired by Starmer were offering a 2nd referendum.
Generally agree but although May lost her majority she polled nearly as high as Johnson did to get an 80 seat majority which indicates that Corbyn was maybe as good at mobilising the Tory vote as he was the Labour vote.

Corbyn was party leader in 2019, he should have just mirrored Johnson on Get Brexit Done, he had the final shout. I think the reality was that Labour were trying to hedge their bets.
 
Odd framing.

After the disaster under Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn increased Labour's vote share more than any of the party's leaders since 1945.

Theresa May lost her majority, and you're framing her as the winner.

Corbyn was "battered" in 2019 mainly because people believed the Tories would "get Brexit done" while Labour inspired by Starmer were offering a 2nd referendum.

My lord - so Corbyn won and May lost but May ended up as PM and Corbyn got booted out.

Maybe we can rehash this argument on the other 9,598 threads about it.
 
I've never road so much rubbish in all my life.

Every expert I have seen on TV has said Brexit is the reason why our inflation is higher than the rest of Europe.

I have seen countless Labour MP's over the last few weeks talking about taxing profits - what was the windfall tax?

Polls putting Tories ahead of Labour? Ok.

It's the Tories that have no short term or long term solutions and the public know this. So why are they going to get in again?

The Lib Dems can say what they like - they aren't going to get into power.

Wages have risen 4%. Well that's depending on what you are comparing. In real terms they have dropped 5% (I presume you are using the 3.9% from 2015?) The only European countries that have seen a drop in real terms to 2015 were the UK, Greece and Portugal. (https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea036.pdf)

Your post stinks of the sunny Brexit uplands and 'none of this is my fault guv' which is the propaganda being pushed by Johnson over the last 2 years. Jesus wept 🤣
Too much Daily Mail or Express, possibly the Sun, in my opinion.

The Tories are good with the economy you know.
 
Unlike you I’m a ex labour member and used to go to meetings and understand Labour allows discussion

I also read left wing news and watch interviews and read books which puts me at an advantage it seems over you

So again why don’t you try and figure out the problem and then work out a solution
No need to be rude, I’ve been listening to the drivel coming out of Sunak and Truss and it makes me angry that people continue to be conned by a political party whose whole existence surrounds conserving the wealth of the very, very rich.

We need them out of power and the sooner the better.
 
first of please once again can people please check information before they post it because I am constantly having to correct incorrect information

What is the UK inflation rate 9%?

And Estonia is 20%
Latvia 19%
Poland’s 14%

And I counted at least 15 countries that have higher inflation than us in europe

So where on earth are you getting your information?

I never said separate countries in Europe, I said 'in Europe' as the area as a whole:


You can always find outliers but what I think is most helpful is to compare comparable economies. Germany, France etc - but if the sunlit Brexit uplands mean we are doing better than Estonia, Latvia & Poland you have a point. You keep looking at that green grass on the other side of the fence 🤣
 
first of please once again can people please check information before they post it because I am constantly having to correct incorrect information

What is the UK inflation rate 9%?

And Estonia is 20%
Latvia 19%
Poland’s 14%

And I counted at least 15 countries that have higher inflation than us in europe

So where on earth are you getting your information?
I’m going to do a very Tory thing now and respectfully point out that comparable economies like Germany and France are running lower inflation.

What are Truss and Sunak‘s plans to get inflation down?
 
Because the left, even when they don't agree with the Labour right/centrists, generally bite their tongue and still vote for them. The centrists however sabotage and vote for someone else. Compromise only ever seems to go one way. The Blairites expect everyone to just back them because they aren't Tories and then do the opposite when it's somebody else's turn. Tories are Tories but the people that sabotage their own side and then demand unity when it suits them are hypocrites which is just as bad as the Tories.

I wouldn't vote Tory (voted for JC twice), and think I'm probably as left as most in Labour, but I realise that if you try and push for everything, you don't end up with nothing, you end end up with less than nothing (well the worse off do anyway).

I've created a simple table below (you will understand how this works, but some might not). Obviously there's not an equal number in each from 1-10 but the idea is the same.

I'm probably 3 out of 10 on the scale below, and I'd say most of the country naturally sits at around 5.5/6, which is why we end up with the Tories more often than not, and FPTP doesn't help this either.

For me, I'd take Option 3 every day of the week (which is where I think we are now), failing that Option 4 to guarantee a win.
I don't want to risk Option 2, as we would end up with a bad result, just as much as a good, but overall this is worse than Option 3, especially as it won't work in FPTP.
Option 4 is giving away too much, but this may work if we had a true three party system, as the centre would always get the most seats and the smaller number would be that on the left (to side with), making it easy to gang up on the right, which are politically further away in the extremes.

I think 2017 was similar to Option 2, it lost on a quite a close vote, but could could never win because of the seat situation.
2019 was Option 1, a guaranteed kicking, and guaranteed to be bad, I don't want to go there every again.

1660039061895.png

For some silly reason the policies become too easy to attack by the Tory press, which is what can sway those in the middle, or if they don't seem to add up.

We can all be on board with unity when we have a centrist leader but only if the centrists agree to do the same when the left are leading the party.
Sounds great in theory, but not in practice, because the left leading the party won't win anytime soon. It may do once the old Tories die off, but you'll get some ex Labour voters backfilling, once they start to increase their earnings. It will take a long time for the tide to turn, but it will.

The way I see the above table, the Labour members sit at 1/2, this causes a problem, as to appease them fully then it's simply impossible to win, at this moment. I'd rather appease them form a position of power, but equally I have to appease 4-6 to stay in control.

There's still absolutely loads of selfish tossers in the UK, as soon as we accept that the sooner we can try and sway couple of them, as if we don't we can't win, unfortunately. The key vote is that at 6/10, if you get that you win, if you don't you lose. Ideally you want to win with that at the far end of your scale.
 
I wouldn't vote Tory (voted for JC twice), and think I'm probably as left as most in Labour, but I realise that if you try and push for everything, you don't end up with nothing, you end end up with less than nothing (well the worse off do anyway).

I've created a simple table below (you will understand how this works, but some might not). Obviously there's not an equal number in each from 1-10 but the idea is the same.

I'm probably 3 out of 10 on the scale below, and I'd say most of the country naturally sits at around 5.5/6, which is why we end up with the Tories more often than not, and FPTP doesn't help this either.

For me, I'd take Option 3 every day of the week (which is where I think we are now), failing that Option 4 to guarantee a win.
I don't want to risk Option 2, as we would end up with a bad result, just as much as a good, but overall this is worse than Option 3, especially as it won't work in FPTP.
Option 4 is giving away too much, but this may work if we had a true three party system, as the centre would always get the most seats and the smaller number would be that on the left (to side with), making it easy to gang up on the right, which are politically further away in the extremes.

I think 2017 was similar to Option 2, it lost on a quite a close vote, but could could never win because of the seat situation.
2019 was Option 1, a guaranteed kicking, and guaranteed to be bad, I don't want to go there every again.

View attachment 42514

For some silly reason the policies become too easy to attack by the Tory press, which is what can sway those in the middle, or if they don't seem to add up.


Sounds great in theory, but not in practice, because the left leading the party won't win anytime soon. It may do once the old Tories die off, but you'll get some ex Labour voters backfilling, once they start to increase their earnings. It will take a long time for the tide to turn, but it will.

The way I see the above table, the Labour members sit at 1/2, this causes a problem, as to appease them fully then it's simply impossible to win, at this moment. I'd rather appease them form a position of power, but equally I have to appease 4-6 to stay in control.

There's still absolutely loads of selfish tossers in the UK, as soon as we accept that the sooner we can try and sway couple of them, as if we don't we can't win, unfortunately. The key vote is that at 6/10, if you get that you win, if you don't you lose. Ideally you want to win with that at the far end of your scale.
The idea sounds reasonable but it misses the fact that you don't have to be all the way left to include leftist policies (and vice versa). Labour should average at 3, Tories should average at 8 (if my understanding of the table is correct). The assumption under Blair (and now seemingly Starmer) is that they need to be 5 or 6 because they take for granted that 1-4 will vote fr them anyway. The Tories don't do this. They do Politics correctly. I don't agree with them but the whole point of a party is to do what you believe to be right and then convince people to vote for you. The New Labour way of thinking is to change the party to suit the electorate and then give the electorate what they think they want. It's nonsense and we just end up with a cycle of Right/Centre-Right governments.

Your analysis of 2019 is completely false. Policy meant nothing in that election. It was a single issue election which Labour got badly wrong. If you think they'd have been better off with a completely different manifesto but the same Brexit position then you are way off. They were just so far away from anything coherent on Brexit that they had no chance.

The Tories have always been the party of the rich but recently they have managed to become the party of the working class as well. Not by changing their policies, they still suit the rich, but by winning on messaging. These are bread and butter Labour voters but Labour have abandoned them. They could easily return if Labour offered them sensible policies and stop looking down and sneering at them. For example, immigration has become a dirty word for Labour but to the working classes competing with unskilled migration it is/was a major issue. If Labour could stop being scared of offending people then they could talk about immigration again. Controlled immigration isn't offensive or racist. It is sensible and the protection of workers should be the number one aim of the Labour party.

Another thing Labour should be banging on about now is wage rises. I've just read an incredibly infuriating article on the BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62471260) from the head of John Lewis complaining that staff shortages are causing wage inflation. Labour should be out front and centre explaining why it is nonsense. Inflation is externally driven by global prices. If we don't increase wages here we will fall behind. It's more important than ever that wages rise now. Internal inflation doesn't make a difference. Wages go up, prices go up relatively we all stay the same but at least we can afford imports. Stagnating wages while external inflation happening just means workers are having to suffer so shareholders can maintain their status quo of mega profits. We're being screwed, these people are the enemy and Labour are nowhere to be seen.
 
Odd framing.

After the disaster under Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn increased Labour's vote share more than any of the party's leaders since 1945.

Theresa May lost her majority, and you're framing her as the winner.

Corbyn was "battered" in 2019 mainly because people believed the Tories would "get Brexit done" while Labour inspired by Starmer were offering a 2nd referendum.
Miliband lost as he ditched what had won previously under Blair, rather than adapting it to the times. I can semi understand that, as they had been in power for a long time before the press framed them with causing a recession. That made it very hard for Brown to beat the Tories in 2010, and similar again in 2015, especially when the SNP came to the fold.

We're in a FPTP system, any loss is a loss, and if the other side gets a lot more seats then they can get to a majority.

How many seats did JC get in 2017? I'm assuming that since May "lost", JC must have won? Nope, he just lost by a lot more than May did, despite the Tories being on their ****. Labour's vote share went up in 2017, but so did the Tories, and they ended up with 60 more seats.

JC was in power for over a year before the referendum even happened, putting a euro sceptic in place then was not a great move, and he wasn't exactly convincing with what he or labour were saying. Had he been more pro EU or more convincing with it (same way Tories messed up 2015-16) then voting out may not have happened. 2017 was the chance to win, with the Tory turmoil, but after that was lost and it got dragged out, most had given up an realised we were going out one way or another. So they tried to roll the dice in 2019 but it was stacked against them by then, the damage had been done.
 
The idea sounds reasonable but it misses the fact that you don't have to be all the way left to include leftist policies (and vice versa). Labour should average at 3, Tories should average at 8 (if my understanding of the table is correct).

I get that, but you're a reasonable/ good person, the problem is what you look at as leftist as common sense (as do I largely). The big problem is how the other side or anyone above a 5/6 looks at it, which is completely the opposite as they are people who are not as nice, or who are "I'm alright Jack". Then you also have to factor that a lot of the media is specifically aimed to target labours working class voters, and play on any fears they have. The other problem is the absolute ****. you have at 8,9,10 etc.

In a balanced world, Labour should average 3 and the opposite to that would be the Tories at 8, but that can't work if the media hold the right and if the people naturally sit at around 5/6.

The assumption under Blair (and now seemingly Starmer) is that they need to be 5 or 6 because they take for granted that 1-4 will vote fr them anyway. The Tories don't do this. They do Politics correctly. I don't agree with them but the whole point of a party is to do what you believe to be right and then convince people to vote for you. The New Labour way of thinking is to change the party to suit the electorate and then give the electorate what they think they want. It's nonsense and we just end up with a cycle of Right/Centre-Right governments.

Your analysis of 2019 is completely false. Policy meant nothing in that election. It was a single issue election which Labour got badly wrong. If you think they'd have been better off with a completely different manifesto but the same Brexit position then you are way off. They were just so far away from anything coherent on Brexit that they had no chance.
No, Labour know the 1-4 won't vote Tory, and they accept that the deck and media is stacked against them.
The Tories know they have this deck on their side, so can use different tactics. They've sacked off the centre too much though, caused major party unrest, and put a clown in charge, so it's ultimately likely to drive them off a cliff, unless they move back to towards the middle again, which both Sunak and Truss seem to have both realised(to a degree).

Yes, 2019 was done before it even started, but wasn't helped by the hole Labour started digging since Brown went.
 
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UK inflation is 9.4%

you clearly have done absolutely no background checks on a anything you are writing so go and check your nunbers because again you are incorrect and I can't have a conversation with someone who I now have to point out that inflation as a whole is higher in europe than here

Again you're wrong so look at the data for gods sake!

👍

Ok :ROFLMAO:
 
The Tories are going to give tax breaks for companies making profits in the hope that they reinvest which they won't if we hit a recession

They will likely put a cap on October's energy between £35 billion to £50 Billion in costs

The answer is to tax profits and help working families

But like I said you have worked out brexit is to blame anda are working backwards
In the same post you have mentioned both tax breaks for companies and taxing profits.

Call me old fashioned but you sound as confused as Rishi and Lizzie.

And yes Brexit is to blame for some of the current issues.
 
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