Meanwhile, in Sweden...

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RandySavage said:
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/15/we-could-open-up-again-and-forget-the-whole-thing/

Swedish strategy mentioned I'm here along with South Korea and interestingly also Wuhan. Read full article.
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Did you see the C4 programme on how South Korea managed to 'control' the virus without a lockdown? Incredible how they used technology and how we could do with a world class medical expert like they had, as well as having the political will to deliver. We could have done the same; we could even try and get to grips with it from here using the same principles. Listening to Brandon Lewis this morning, we've just given up.
 
FabioPorkpie said:
Not really sure how you draw that conclusion from that article??
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Well see Randy's article and just think it through... If case numbers are dropping in the capital despite the heavy amount of foot traffic it shows that this thing had been ripping through London in Feb and march.. by the time lockdown was imposed the peak had passed. All the lockdown has achieved IF this trend continues is to have made the tail last longer despite the hospital's never being overwhelmed (remember the only reason for lockdown).

From Randy's article:

'I hope the intervention did not have too much of an impact because it most likely made the situation worse. The intervention was to ‘flatten the curve’. That means that there would be the same number of cases but spread out over a longer period of time, because otherwise the hospitals would not have enough capacity.

Now, as we know, children and young adults do not end up in hospitals. It is only those who are both elderly and have comorbidities that do. Therefore you have to protect the elderly and the nursing homes. The ideal approach would be to simply shut the door of the nursing homes and keep the personnel and the elderly locked in for a certain amount of time, and pay the staff overtime to stay there for 24 hours per day.

How long can you do that for? For three weeks, that is possible. For 18 months, it is not. The flattening of the curve, the prolongation of the epidemic, makes it more difficult to protect the elderly, who are at risk. More of the elderly people become infected, and we have more deaths.'
 
I've just watched an hour long video with Professor Knut on youtube.

I think he's underestimating 1. the duration of the epidemic and 2. the severity of the disease. But what he says will happen is already happening. Sweden has gone from around 45 ICU admissions per day at the peak almost to single figures now. And that is data whcih has little to no lag as far as I am aware. The same is happening in London and in Spain/Italy (in fact it happened a while ago). Something that distorts our impression is that it is taking some people several weeks to go from admission to death ... or recovery.

He's basically saying similar things to Giesecke and other epidemiologists. Just a little more forcefully.
 
borolad259 said:
I've just watched an hour long video with Professor Knut on youtube.

I think he's underestimating 1. the duration of the epidemic and 2. the severity of the disease. But what he says will happen is already happening. Sweden has gone from around 45 ICU admissions per day at the peak almost to single figures now. And that is data whcih has little to no lag as far as I am aware. The same is happening in London and in Spain/Italy (in fact it happened a while ago). Something that distorts our impression is that it is taking some people several weeks to go from admission to death ... or recovery.

He's basically saying similar things to Giesecke and other epidemiologists. Just a little more forcefully.
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So most people are dying outside of ICUs? Care homes? Similar to this country by the sound of it.
 
RandySavage said:
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/15/we-could-open-up-again-and-forget-the-whole-thing/

Swedish strategy mentioned I'm here along with South Korea and interestingly also Wuhan. Read full article.
Click to expand...
I got as far as the following statement (having already noticed a few questionable claims) and then realised this guy is just talking out of his rear end:
Now, as we know, children and young adults do not end up in hospitals. It is only those who are both elderly and have comorbidities that do.
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This is absolutely untrue. Children and young adults are most definitely ending up in hospitals - and some are even dying. Yes, the numbers are much, much lower than in the higher age groups but it's just not true that only the elderly with comorbidities go to hospital with this virus.

One recent trend that has just emerged in children, is a Kawasaki disease-like syndrome associated with CoVid-19 infection. There have been hundreds of cases in multiple different countries and it's thought that some earlier cases may have been missed, as before the pattern was recognised, doctors were just not thinking of a link to CoVid-19 (and so not testing for it) when seeing children presenting with Kawasaki-like symptoms.

So far there have been up to 100 cases in the UK, over 100 in the US in New York alone (with three deaths) and other cases in France, Italy, Spain and Switzerland.

The first cases were reported in Italy, where they observed:
in Bergamo [...] at the peak of the pandemic in the country (Feb 18 to April 20, 2020), a monthly incidence some 30-fold higher than observed for Kawasaki disease across the previous 5 years.
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Even among the elderly, it's not true that all of them who end up in serious condition have comorbidities (though once again, most do).
 
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Liamo said:
I got as far as the following strategy (having already noticed a few questionable claims) and then realised this guy is just talking out of his rear end:


This is absolutely untrue. Children and young adults are most definitely ending up in hospitals - and some are even dying. Yes, the numbers are much, much lower than in the higher age groups but it's just not true that only the elderly with comorbidities go to hospital with this virus.

One recent trend that has just emerged in children, is a Kawasaki disease-like syndrome associated with CoVid-19 infection. There have been hundreds of cases in multiple different countries and it's thought that some earlier cases may have been missed as before the pattern was recognised, Doctor's were just not thinking of a link to CoVid-19 (and so not testing for it) when seeing children presenting with Kawasaki-like symptoms.

So far there have been up to 100 cases in the UK, over 100 in the US in New York alone (with three deaths) and other cases in France, Italy, Spain and Switzerland.

The first cases were reported in Italy, where they observed:


Even among the elderly, it's not true not all of them who end up in serious condition have comorbidities (though once again, most do).
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English isn't his first language.. he's not talking in absolute terms.
 
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Alvez_48 said:
Well see Randy's article and just think it through... If case numbers are dropping in the capital despite the heavy amount of foot traffic it shows that this thing had been ripping through London in Feb and march.. by the time lockdown was imposed the peak had passed. All the lockdown has achieved IF this trend continues is to have made the tail last longer despite the hospital's never being overwhelmed (remember the only reason for lockdown).

From Randy's article:

'I hope the intervention did not have too much of an impact because it most likely made the situation worse. The intervention was to ‘flatten the curve’. That means that there would be the same number of cases but spread out over a longer period of time, because otherwise the hospitals would not have enough capacity.

Now, as we know, children and young adults do not end up in hospitals. It is only those who are both elderly and have comorbidities that do. Therefore you have to protect the elderly and the nursing homes. The ideal approach would be to simply shut the door of the nursing homes and keep the personnel and the elderly locked in for a certain amount of time, and pay the staff overtime to stay there for 24 hours per day.

How long can you do that for? For three weeks, that is possible. For 18 months, it is not. The flattening of the curve, the prolongation of the epidemic, makes it more difficult to protect the elderly, who are at risk. More of the elderly people become infected, and we have more deaths.'
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Ok, its just that’s not the article you made the comment about lockdown on.
I get what you are saying, in context with the article that Randy posted.
 
FabioPorkpie said:
Ok, its just that’s not the article you made the comment about lockdown on.
I get what you are saying, in context with the article that Randy posted.
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Ye sorry my bad, it's more if you take the headline figures from the original article mixed with Randy's article it paints the picture.
It's definitely worth debating if the trend continues..
I'm hopeful it does because it means less people will die.
 
Yep I fear the lockdown has only made things worse as what has happened with the massive rise in deaths was unfortunately inevitable given this government's disgraceful reaction speed.

As daft as this sounds borders should have been shut as soon as the first cases in Italy were announced. The money spent on the job retention scheme could have indeed been spent on paying up hotels for 14 day quarantine periods, staffing for care homes that chose to fully lockdown and obviously PPE for keyworkers.
 
I stopped reading at “There was no indication that hospitals could become overloaded.” .... you mean except for what happened in Italy?

I don’t care what his claimed credentials, the guy is either (1) a crank, (2) look at me, look at me, or (3) an invention of someone’s imagination.
 
How do you reckon it would have gone if the UK government, with say 100 cases and no deaths, had introduced:

Test positive? Removed from your home to a government facility, even if not requiring hospitalisation.

Contact with a positive case? Forced downloading of tracking app on your phone, and self isolation for 14 days.

Entering the UK? Straight into government lockdown for 14 days.

There would have been riots.
 
otto62 said:
I stopped reading at “There was no indication that hospitals could become overloaded.” .... you mean except for what happened in Italy?

I don’t care what his claimed credentials, the guy is either (1) a crank, (2) look at me, look at me, or (3) an invention of someone’s imagination.
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What that same hospital that had been overloaded the previous 3 years with flu cases?
The guy is 1,000x smarter than you are on the subject that is for sure.
 
Wilf said:
whats the scores on the doors with Sweden now ?
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3,646. Around 70 deaths per day last week but trending down. As with the UK, it has moved from the major metropolitan centres and outwards. It has reached the North but most of the population up there is in small, isolated communities, so transmission will likely slow (my next door neighbour one way is 150 metres away, in the other direction it's 400m). As far as I am aware there has been one death in a neighbouring village.
 
Alvez_48 said:
English isn't his first language.. he's not talking in absolute terms.
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It doesn't matter what language he's speaking. Saying that no children or young adults end up in hospital is not a case of somehow making the wrong word choice or an example of his intended meaning being "lost in translation" - it's just completely and utterly false.

Furthermore, it's not an isolated example. He also said:
It is over in China. It is over in South Korea.
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Very simple wording, very simple statements and again, totally untrue. It is not over in either country - both have had a worrying upsurge in cases in recent days after relaxing restrictions.

Another untrue claim is:
There is no indication that hospitals could ever have become overloaded, irrespective of what we did.
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Numerous videos taken inside hospitals in Italy and Spain, and harrowing testimony from doctors and nurses in those countries, attest to how overwhelmed the hospitals were in those countries, for a while at least.

Then he says that in New York, there was:
Nothing dramatic. Nothing out of the ordinary. That is what happens during the flu season.
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Again, absolutely untrue - bodies were being stacked in refrigerated container lorries in New York; in one example there were so many of them that the bodies were being scooped up using forklift trucks. Prisoners from Riker's island were digging mass, unmarked graves on Hart Island and mechanical diggers were used to stack the caskets. All this was dramatic, out of the ordinary and not seen in a normal flu season.

Prisoners dig Hart Island mass graves

Forklift puts bodies of CoVid-19 patients into refrigerated trucks

There are just so many factually incorrect statements in the article that they can't possibly all be excused as mistakes due to language - the guy is just making false claim after false claim.

Also, what's with the ad hominem attack?
 
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