The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

bear66 said:
As of 9am 9 May, there have been 1,728,443 tests, with 96,878 tests on 8 May.

1,270,408 people have been tested, of which 215,260 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 8 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 31,587 have sadly died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings, not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 26,339.

1.8% increase in positive tests yesterday, the majority key workers/ care homes.
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The testing figure is so artificial though, 35675 tests in the post being counted as tests. Even discounting that I still don't get why the number of actual tests greatly exceeds the number of people tested
 
kuepper said:
The testing figure is so artificial though, 35675 tests in the post being counted as tests. Even discounting that I still don't get why the number of actual tests greatly exceeds the number of people tested
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A lot of retests.

The method they've decided on is going to give artificial and initially high testing figures. They'll meet the 200000 by posting 140000 the day before.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 1,679 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 2,109
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 6.7%, following 5.6% decrease yesterday (and 3rd consecutive daily decrease)
• 346 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 626 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 7.4%, following 2.9% decrease yesterday (and 15th consecutive daily decrease)
• We are tracking significantly above both Italy and Spain on a days since 100th death basis. We have been tracking above Italy for the past 38 days and above Spain for the past 18 days.
• We are approximately 2.5 days ahead Italy’s current numbers (from 1.5 days ahead yesterday)
• We are approximately 9.5 days ahead of Spain’s current numbers (from 8.5 days ahead yesterday)
 
kuepper said:
did you solve that Q Billy?
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The short answer is no. I have found a simpler way to articulate the discrepancy though - it's basically the difference between the total number of people who the government says were tested under Pillar 2 each day and the total number of in-person tests under Pillar 2 for the same day.

Today's published figures (for yesterday) had an even bigger discrepancy. The number of people stated to have been tested under Pillar 2 was 42,344 but the total number of in-person tests under Pillar 2 was 26,721. So apparently 15,623 more people were tested yesterday than they conducted tests.

I have been back over (using that internet archive wayback machine that you pointed me in the direction of) and compared those numbers back to 28th April, when the government starting publishing figures for delivery-route tests (which are supposedly discounted from the people tested figures). On 11 out of the 12 days since then, they have claimed more people were tested under Pillar 2 than there were in-person Pillar 2 tests. It comes to an extra 70,439 people in total.

So something doesn't add up (literally). My suspicion is that, even though the government says it doesn't count delivery-route tests within the people tested figures, they do count them when they are returned and processed in the laboratories. That's just a guess though.
 
There's definitely some double counting going on, it's the only plausible explanation as far I can see. Probably along the lines of what I'd read suggested before - counting a test sent as 1 test and a test sent back as 1 test so 2 tests for 1 kit - remember how they counted PPE gloves as individual gloves not pairs so it seemed they were twice as many. Apparently they only get about one third of posted kits returned.
 
kuepper said:
There's definitely some double counting going on, it's the only plausible explanation as far I can see. Probably along the lines of what I'd read suggested before - counting a test sent as 1 test and a test sent back as 1 test so 2 tests for 1 kit - remember how they counted PPE gloves as individual gloves not pairs so it seemed they were twice as many. Apparently they only get about one third of posted kits returned.
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Putting to one side whether they should be counting tests as having been completed at the point of sending them out in the post, I actually think that, if they're only counting them as completed once at that point and then only counting them as a person tested once when the tests are returned and analysed, that's not unresonable from a statistical perspective. An in-person test for one individual would count as both one test completed and one person tested, so it's fair enough to count the delivery-route tests under both measures. Of course, that's providing they're only counting them once for both measures.

The information you have heard regarding only one-third of posted kits being returned would fit with the assumption that the additional people tested, who are currrently unaccounted for, are actually delivery-route tests being returned for analysis. If we discount the last three days' figures (as they're unlikely to have been returned yet), they've posted out 192,000 tests. The addional people tested total approx. 70,000, so that would be just over one-third.
 
kuepper said:
Damning criticism of govt stats on Marr show today. The government’s daily briefings on Covd-19 are "completely embarrassing", “not trustworthy communication of statistics” and "number theatre"- Prof David Spiegelhalter
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I agree. When they don't give a full explanation of the dates these people died all it does is cause more fear.
 
As of 9am on 10 May, there have been 1,821,280 tests, with 92,837 tests on 9 May.

1,334,770 people have been tested, of which 219,183 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 9 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 31,855 have died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings, not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 26,568.

1.8% increase in positive tests. Only 8% of people being tested in NHS system are positive. There are presumably a lot of people with 'symptons' that haven't got Covid-19.
 
Hayfever season is on its way. People will more than likely confuse some of the symptoms.
 
Possibly bear, there are other virus' which cause similar symptoms, especially in the mild cases and early stages. I have no idea what proportion of those tests are 'frontline' workers but it is worth considering that some of those tested will be people who may now be being tested regularly because of the job they do and so would be tested regardless of whether they were showing symptoms or not.
 
Saw on Andrew Marr this morning that there is 10,000 dying every week above comparable averages on past years. It is not a fluke or a one off. That is 10,000 who have nothing about Covid-19 on their death certificates. That is an incredible figure. Since lockdown 60,000ish people have died some in unexplained circumstances. Even if 20% were Covid related that pushes our total above 40,000 and growing by the day. Yet some want to get out and about and help its spread even further.
 
asredastheycome said:
Saw on Andrew Marr this morning that there is 10,000 dying every week above comparable averages on past years. It is not a fluke or a one off. That is 10,000 who have nothing about Covid-19 on their death certificates. That is an incredible figure. Since lockdown 60,000ish people have died some in unexplained circumstances. Even if 20% were Covid related that pushes our total above 40,000 and growing by the day. Yet some want to get out and about and help its spread even further.
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I am plotting the excess death stats on a weekly basis here:

https://fmttmboro.com/index.php?threads/excess-deaths-down-a-little-in-the-uk.3292/
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 1,452 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 1,679
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 6.7%, following 6.7% decrease yesterday (and 4rd consecutive daily decrease)
• 268 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 346 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 1.4%, following 7.4% decrease yesterday (and 16th consecutive daily decrease)
• We are tracking significantly above both Italy and Spain on a days since 100th death basis. We have been tracking above Italy for the past 39 days and above Spain for the past 19 days.
• We are approximately 3 days ahead Italy’s current numbers (from 2.5 days ahead yesterday)
• We are approximately 10 days ahead of Spain’s current numbers (from 9.5 days ahead yesterday)
 
As of 9am on 11 May, there have been 1,921,770 tests, with 100,490 tests on 10 May.

1,400,107 people have been tested, of which 223,060 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 10 May, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, 32,065 have died. This new figure includes deaths in all settings, not just in hospitals. The equivalent figure under the old measure would have been 26,797.

1.7% increase in new positives, one third of which are pillar 1 NHS tests
 
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SmallTown said:
Really liking Billy and Bears run downs here. I probably don’t know how to interpret the data but it’s good to see cold hard facts rather than political fluff. Especially when they both mention trends. Thanks guys
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Agreed.
Do we need to see the comparisons with Italy and Spain now though we are obviously doing worse than them. Will save Billy a bit of work. Maybes he could add known recoveries instead?
 
RandySavage said:
Agreed.
Do we need to see the comparisons with Italy and Spain now though we are obviously doing worse than them. Will save Billy a bit of work. Maybes he could add known recoveries instead?
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Actually, I've been thinking along similar lines myself. Certainly in terms of absolute numbers the comparisons aren't that illuminating any longer, as we are ahead and almost certain to continue pulling further ahead.

I was thinking of adding some sort of deaths per million comparison instead, as we're still behind on that metric. What do people think?

I'd be happy to add something regarding known recoveries, but as far as I'm aware this isn't published anywhere. If anyone can point me in the direction of something reliable I'd be happy to take a look.
 
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