That's all dependant in being close to the herd immunity. We may be but I don't think the vaccination is good enough to be included in herd immunity. As for seasonal. I don't think you can classify a virus as seasonal until after a pandemic when all other factors have been removed.
Hopefully you're right and I'm wrong. I guess we'll see.
It's not just vaccination, it's people like me who have been out and about in work, pubs, restaurants and bars etc, double jabbed. I've probably been exposed about 50 times by now, and must have either had it unknowingly with zero symptoms, and no positive PCR's or LFD's, or just been exposed and fought it off without infection. I must be pretty immune by now, as immune as I can be, and there will be loads of under 50's like that. Here's hoping anyway!!!
Most older double jabbed people haven't been doing that, they've been more cautious, so they're not getting the same natural exposure on top, so they suffer from waning far more, and the kids had zero protection to start with.
I read how Andrew Lilico explained how the higher up R0 you go, the less seasonality plays effect, with the old R0 of 2-3 that is more likely to have more seasonality. But with Delta's R7-8 it effectively will just spread so fast, that the time of year doesn't make much difference. Most of the modellers agree with that. R0 top trumps seasons basically.
Kind of like how Flu with a low R0 (<2) doesn't work well outside of winter, so why summer is fine etc.
All seems to stack up mathematically to me, I think it will burn out soon, as much as it can, then we're just at endemic levels, which we will be stuck with for a good while yet. I think now it's just picking out pockets/ areas which got off lightly previous. I think now the more well off places/ areas are being hit, where as previously the least well of areas took the brunt.