This is the most credible analysis of the data that I've seen. Interestingly, it's the model that the Swedish epidemiologists are working to. It also fits with the fact that people in my family got sick with Covid before it was thought to be widely spread (early February) ... and the fact that only one person in a household of 3 got sick (the only one that hadn't been taking codliver oil all winter funnily enough).
https://medium.com/@ali_razavian/covid-19-from-a-data-scientists-perspective-95bd4e84843b
https://medium.com/@ali_razavian/covid-19-from-a-data-scientists-perspective-95bd4e84843b