Meanwhile, in Sweden...

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"From having been between 10-15 deaths a week, the deaths in Sweden increased, from mid-October, to just over 60 deaths a week. And most people who have died with covid-19 have lived in nursing homes or had home care, reports TT.

TT has investigated who has died with corona from the beginning of October until last week with the help of the cause of death certificates that have been received by the National Board of Health and Welfare.

A total of 289 deaths have been registered - a figure that will increase due to backlogs in the statistics. And of these 289 people, 232 are over 80 years old. "

Once again they are having an issue, primarily in care homes. Most of the deaths are people in end of life care. The reason, I suspect, that there is no excess mortality is that these people are vulnerable to other respiratory diseases at this time of the year.... though this virus seems to be particularly deadly for those very old and frail people.

Of the 6,400 to have died from covid in Sweden just 660 have been younger than 70 and less than 250 have been younger than 60. Most have other serious illnesses.
These are all individual personal tragedies of course, but, bluntly, many of them were likely to die this year anyway.

Sweden had a very soft flu season last year, which left a lot of very old and frail people vulnerable to this awful disease.

I find the comparison between countries to be tasteless and meaningless. Sweden is completely different from its Nordic neighbours in population make up and distribution.
What is happening there at the moment is pretty much what the state epidemiologist predicted ... that seasonal factors would likely bring about more infections. It seems that, a bit like in the UK, the areas being hit badly now are those that were spared in the spring.
@bear66 Boro's post may go some way to calming your worries about Sweden mate.
 
That looks a little bit like changing the narrative to be honest. What do you mean by people like me, what kind of person are you referring to?

There wasn't a narrative to change. I have a place in Sweden. I have a lot of friends there that I am in daily contact with and I follow Swedish affairs avidly (read the Swedish news etc). They were doing something different.

I was referring to the kind of person who is presumptuous enough to think they know what my "narrative" was.
 
You say it ain't working but let's see at the end of 2020 when the 'death' toll for the year comes in so far it's looking very similar to all the others years before it:-

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You missed off the date, and link on your post, but looking at that 77,300 number, it appears to be early November, from Statista.

You can get an update for the numbers here: https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

The figure on 13th November is 79,268

This could lead most to believe that would include the deaths up to the 13th of November, but nope.
The actual key thing here is although it includes some deaths for up to the 13th, any days from about the end of October are incomplete, and not fully recorded, like how there's a delay on how they add covid deaths to dates up to 2-3 weeks ago. They take a few weeks to record, but do seem to record accurately, this is good for some things, but is also a "frog in a pan of water on the gas" scenario.

So, if you go back to say October 31st, which we can assume has reliable/ complete data then:
2020: 77,351 to date
2019: 71,212 to date (lowest in last 5)
2018: 74,960 to date (highest in last 5)
15-19 average: 73,955

Using 15-19 averages, to "finish off" 2020 from October 31st, the number is 94,553

Keep in mind too, up to mid March 2020 Sweden had a -1,500 head start on the yearly deaths compared to an average year, so it could have been heading for a low year (compared to 15-19 av), now it's up by 3.5k on the 15-19 average, so that's about a 5k difference, close to the 6k covid deaths that were registered up to 31 Oct.

Yeah, you could say 19 was low, so there was "some timber to burn" as I read somewhere, but equally 17 and 18 were high, so in 19 there shouldn't have been many vulnerable left. In reality the line should probably trend through around 90,500.

But, how will winter effect them? In April, 2020 was on average 96 per day excess (over the 15-19 average).
How many more are going onto that December average, or do these days of 6,000 and 7,000 cases mean nothing, Sweden's PM doesn't think so, and I would really hope he's quite in the know, and would really hope the public listen to what he's saying.

The source of the data is here: https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/sverige-i-siffror/manniskorna-i-sverige/doda-i-sverige/
and here https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/...l-och-diagram/preliminar-statistik-over-doda/

This is the graph from "Nov 13th", but you can clearly see it's only useful for data up to end of October.

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It’s a difficult situation though, particularly in Stockholm, where I read there were only half a dozen or so spare ICU beds available a day or so ago, and the head of Stockholm’s health service has appealed for help in terms or redirecting human resources to the capital. Like what we’ve seen here, it’s outbreaks in cities (eg Liverpool) putting strain on services, but as here (so far) hopefully Stockholm will cope and be coming out the other side soon.

Note, the below article was from 2 days ago but the point still stands..



I think it has to be acknowledged now though, that Sweden’s approach unfortunately wasn’t the success they hoped it would be. The numbers speak for themselves sadly.
 
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It’s a difficult situation though, particularly in Stockholm, where I read there were only half a dozen or so spare ICU beds available a day or so ago, and the head of Stockholm’s health service has appealed for help in terms or redirecting human resources to the capital. Like what we’ve seen here, it’s outbreaks in cities (eg Liverpool) putting strain on services, but as here (so far) hopefully Stockholm will cope and be coming out the other side soon.

Note, the below article was from 2 days ago but the point still stands..



I think it has to be said acknowledged now though, that Sweden’s approach unfortunately wasn’t the success they hoped it would be. The numbers speak for themselves sadly.
Some data - make of it what you will
 

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450 deaths in a week. That's higher than the UK per capita.

Authorities requesting ICU nursing help in Stockholm. Finland have offered help, possibly taking patients to Finland if necessary.

Yup - nothing is easy in this environment

It’s probably something to do with them being less compliant than us and having a lower population density
 
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It’s a difficult situation though, particularly in Stockholm, where I read there were only half a dozen or so spare ICU beds available a day or so ago, and the head of Stockholm’s health service has appealed for help in terms or redirecting human resources to the capital. Like what we’ve seen here, it’s outbreaks in cities (eg Liverpool) putting strain on services, but as here (so far) hopefully Stockholm will cope and be coming out the other side soon.

Note, the below article was from 2 days ago but the point still stands..



I think it has to be acknowledged now though, that Sweden’s approach unfortunately wasn’t the success they hoped it would be. The numbers speak for themselves sadly.

Why this constant need for this sort of post? They are dealing with a difficult new virus just as we are. You think that they hoped for anything different from the rest of us? It will be a long while before all of this plays out. Thankfully vaccinations may help, but this bug is something that we will all have to live with for a good while. We will all get better at living with it though.
 
Why this constant need for this sort of post? They are dealing with a difficult new virus just as we are. You think that they hoped for anything different from the rest of us? It will be a long while before all of this plays out. Thankfully vaccinations may help, but this bug is something that we will all have to live with for a good while. We will all get better at living with it though.

I’m sorry mate, but Sweden did things differently and were held up as an example of how it can be done without lockdowns or strict interventions etc. Some on here drew attention to the way they were doing things and how they’d managed to keep things ticking over with some semblance of normality. Its often even been portrayed that Stockholm must be one of the first places to reach some level of natural herd immunity. It’s hardly surprising then that people are interested in how it’s working out.

I do think it’s completely distasteful that some sections of the media and scientists seem to be almost revelling in the fact they are struggling in Stockholm at the minute (like lots of cities are) and they can say ‘see, I told you so!’

But when lots of right leaning media personalities, commentators, politicians and alternative view point scientists have heralded Sweden as a success and the way that we should have gone about our pandemic response, it’s only natural that people are keeping an eye on it and commenting.
And to be fair, if the Head of health services in Stockholm is saying ‘we need help’ then that is naturally going to draw attention. Much like anywhere that has been struggling gets discussed on here - New York, Italy, Belgium, Liverpool, Madrid, the USA generally etc
 
And I hope the tide turns quickly in Sweden, as I hope it does everywhere.
Anyway, I think there are enough worrying signs here in the UK again already, despite our second lockdown. Rough few months ahead for everywhere I worry, irrespective of what policies and interventions have been used.
 
Well both the King and PM of Sweden both admit they got it wrong
Tbf Swden are not alone. Feel sorry for the authorties there because for a time it looked like their reliance on indvidual responsibilty above legal enforcement and formal restrictions would work.
I hope the world gets together after all this settles down and a better more structured consistent approach is adopted. Won't hold my breath though.
 
In his annual Christmas address the King of Sweden has railed against his country’s politicians who he has said have failed the country with their management of the virus. It’s an interesting reflection on the way they have handled the pandemic in Sweden which is now paying for its direction.

 
No my source was correct. Stockholm I was referring to not Sweden in general.


Meanwhile in Southern California with very harsh lockdown measures they have completely filled up their hospitals as in 0 capacity left. So it just goes to show you can easily find anything to fit your own narrative.

I forget though, lockdowns are free and do no damage to society. We've all been doing ever so well this year, never felt so much unity. Said no one.
 
Meanwhile in Southern California with very harsh lockdown measures they have completely filled up their hospitals as in 0 capacity left. So it just goes to show you can easily find anything to fit your own narrative.

I forget though, lockdowns are free and do no damage to society. We've all been doing ever so well this year, never felt so much unity. Said no one.
Are you genuinely suggesting that the dire situation in California is because of the restrictions? Surely its despite them and if people had mixed freely the situation would be much much worse.

For me people saying "lockdowns/restrictions" don't work because people are still dying etc is like saying people still die in fires lets sack all the firemen and bin all the smoke alarms.
 
Are you genuinely suggesting that the dire situation in California is because of the restrictions? Surely its despite them and if people had mixed freely the situation would be much much worse.

For me people saying "lockdowns/restrictions" don't work because people are still dying etc is like saying people still die in fires lets sack all the firemen and bin all the smoke alarms.

No I'm saying as I said you can fit whichever narrative you want, it's fine for people on this thread to pile onto Sweden like they are terrible yet when I point out it's the same in California where they have harsh restrictions I'm a heretic and being horrible somehow.

My argument would be there's no evidence to show lockdowns work and they have a tremendous cost, nothing more.
 
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