OK, lets take this point by point.......
Some people who disagree with me actually try to ask questions or post data to back up their own point. You however don't do this and seem to suggest those of use providing publicly available data to support our argument as conspiracy theroists! What exactly is the conspiracy theory we are spreading?
2nd wave? The current excess death level for the UK is at the upper level over a 5 year period.
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Has your man posted an updated version of this graph yet?
I would have thought he would have, seeing as there's been an ONS update?
You would think he would be keen to elaborate on his point further, with more detail to back it up?
Oh wait, no, I bet he hasn't, because he won't want to show the orange line above the blue one (and doesn't highlight how bad that blue one even is)
Anyway, I can help with that, and I've adjusted the ONS 2014 to 2019 figures for population changes, relative to the ONS yearly increases.
Funny thing is, when you do that, you realise that his blue line shouldn't have been that high in the first place, and has been overly smoothed, so it appears to have a wider range, naughty, naughty. He also had smoothed the line extents artificially high too, and doesn't show the reason why it spikes high and then dips low. His week 52 high should be more like 9k, to reflect 2015, the other years are less.
For week 45 Excess for 2020 is now 1670 over the 5 year average, or 1409 over a population adjusted 5 year average, and was 886 over last week too, no idea how he made his numbers up to get it to match this years, but it wasn't using ONS data, and certainly not in a transparent way.
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With the covid deaths and cases still going up or even levelling, we're heading for at least 2000 excess per week, for at least a month, probably two when factoring in for crimbo. When factoring in what we've had, we're not getting out of this with less than another 30k excess, and wouldn't be surprised if total excess topped 100k for mid march to mid march.
Still don't think there's a second wave??
Those look like pretty big waves to me.