Jonny Ingbar
Well-known member
The timing of the case numbers and deaths, not just in the UK, but around the world would suggest it is?
Does anyone else think COVID-19 is seasonal?
- Thread starter Jonny Ingbar
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Frozen Horse
Well-known member
I think it corresponds to social behaviour more than the weather.
Kids going back to school, students living in close proximity in halls, and the whole population spending more time indoors are all contributors to the spike.
It's not just in this country that these things have happened.
Kids going back to school, students living in close proximity in halls, and the whole population spending more time indoors are all contributors to the spike.
It's not just in this country that these things have happened.
Yes, seasonal.
Classic Edgar Hope Simpson. It is well understood. Similar patterns for the european countries .......
See also the South American countries..... different pattern for the South American countries but same shape regardless of interventions (military lockdown in Peru, less so in Brazil).
Do you think the likes of Whitty and Valance don't know this?
Why are they not acting in a manner to work with a natural phenomena? Rather than against it by trying to "control" the virus?
Why has Whitty's stance changed from work from home, wash hands etc to mandatory masks (in summer!), lockdowns, stopping sports (apart from the elite of course)?
Why is the immune system not seemingly considered by SAGE?
Classic Edgar Hope Simpson. It is well understood. Similar patterns for the european countries .......
See also the South American countries..... different pattern for the South American countries but same shape regardless of interventions (military lockdown in Peru, less so in Brazil).
Do you think the likes of Whitty and Valance don't know this?
Why are they not acting in a manner to work with a natural phenomena? Rather than against it by trying to "control" the virus?
Why has Whitty's stance changed from work from home, wash hands etc to mandatory masks (in summer!), lockdowns, stopping sports (apart from the elite of course)?
Why is the immune system not seemingly considered by SAGE?
Jonny Ingbar
Well-known member
It seems more of a coincidence to me that the virus receded in the Spring and the second wave began in the Autumn and in Europe it seemed to happen at very similar times.
Seasonality is generally more prevalent in the temperate regions of the northern hemisphere, so it is possible.
Frozen Horse
Well-known member
The falling numbers in the spring also coincided with initial lockdowns.
I suppose it doesn't have to be one or the other, both can play a part.
I don't think the new lockdown will settle it either way though: given that schools are still open, lockdown is likely to have a slower, lesser impact.
I suppose it doesn't have to be one or the other, both can play a part.
I don't think the new lockdown will settle it either way though: given that schools are still open, lockdown is likely to have a slower, lesser impact.
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
What about India?
I think there is something in the vitamin d theory, with summer obviously promoting higher levels of vitamin d. It would also tie in with why people with darker skin are more likely to suffer severely, people with higher levels of melatonin in their skin are more likely to suffer from vitamin d deficiency. I imagine countries like India aren’t exactly great for nutrition either.
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
The Edgar theory could be a correct one. Difficult to tell 8 months into a new disease
you have to weigh that up against that every Europe country has gone into restrictions and lifted restrictions and the going back into restrictions
why is Mexico following the same lines as South America?
https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/28/study-finds-80-of-covid-19-patients-had-lack-of-vitamin-d-13492813/
To me it doesn’t make sense to lock people in their homes during winter when as a nation we already don’t get enough vitamin d and should be taking supplements anyway.
To me it doesn’t make sense to lock people in their homes during winter when as a nation we already don’t get enough vitamin d and should be taking supplements anyway.
BoroMart
Well-known member
correlation does not equal causality. Spring we were in full lockdown, since then we have opened up and people have gotten complacent, schools go back and everyone thinks its back to normal and back comes the virus. This is about human condition and behaviour not the season
BoroMart
Well-known member
Sweden have got the 15th worst death rate in the world, I'm a bit bored with hearing about how sweden are the masters of this and should be the model of information. They might not have mandated a lockdown but people were good at following masks and distancing, but when kids went back to school and then complacency set in....
BoroMart
Well-known member
I pressed go to quickly, read my post again. Sweden is just evidence that as humans, particularly ones in a free society our behaviours are similar.
Frozen Horse
Well-known member
Nations with higher death rates include Spain, Italy, USA, Belgium and the UK.
France will soon overtake Sweden too.
I think Sweden's approach will only really be judged at the end of this. I think Sweden will slide down this list as time goes by.
Taken from the NHS website
Winter sunlight
In the UK, sunlight doesn't contain enough UVB radiation in winter (October to early March) for our skin to be able to make vitamin D.
During these months, we rely on getting our vitamin D from food sources (including fortified foods) and supplements.
So it very much depends on your diet but a lot of the foods high in vitamin d are foods we are eating less of for various reasons, oily fish, red meat, eggs etc.
Also again taken from the NHS website:
People at risk of vitamin D deficiency
Some people will not get enough vitamin D from sunlight because they have very little or no sunshine exposure.
The Department of Health and Social Care recommends that you take a daily supplement containing 10 micrograms of vitamin D throughout the year if you:
- are not often outdoors – for example, if you're frail or housebound
- are in an institution like a care home
- usually wear clothes that cover up most of your skin when outdoors
- If you have dark skin – for example you have an African, African-Caribbean or south Asian background – you may also not get enough vitamin D from sunlight.
—————————————————-
Sound familiar?
Also it’s already well known their is a link between vitamin d and the immune systems ability to fight off colds.
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