Billy Horner
Well-known member
The ones who view as a demi-god will openly say they will vote for him, but there is a large number of people who won't admit to voting for Trump, but who ultimately will. There is not a cat in hells chance Biden will win
You should put a bet on him if you're that certain. FiveThirtyEight Politics, who were the only mainstream organisation to give Trump a realistic chance of victory last time (they said he had a 29% chance of winning, which actually fits with his winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote), currently say Trump has a 12% chance of winning the election.
This is not the same election as 2016. Clinton being disliked by a huge proportion of the electorate, Trump being seen as an outsider who might mix it up a bit, and the late intervention of the FBI over Clinton's emails all conspired to push more undecided voters for Trump. Even then, the results were within the margin of error of the polls.
In this election, those undecided (and even moderate Republican) voters appear to be switching to Biden. Early voting is at record levels (currently 70m Americans have already voted) and Democrats have a 2-1 advantage in this. Biden's advantage in the polls is greater than Clinton's was, plus there was late movement towards Trump in the swing states last time, which doesn't appear to being repeated.
Trump cannot win simply by energising his base (who are as loyal as always). He has to win over the undecideds and moderates that he successfully won last time, plus hope that unmotivated Democrats stay at home, none of which appears to be happening.
Now, this doesn't mean that Trump can't win. 12% is 12% after all, and if a surgeon told me that I had a 12% chance of dying during an operation, I would think long and hard about it. But Trump is unlikely to win as things stand and he's running out of time (and voters) to turn that around.