New Poll shows Biden 17 points ahead of Trump in WI

The ones who view as a demi-god will openly say they will vote for him, but there is a large number of people who won't admit to voting for Trump, but who ultimately will. There is not a cat in hells chance Biden will win

You should put a bet on him if you're that certain. FiveThirtyEight Politics, who were the only mainstream organisation to give Trump a realistic chance of victory last time (they said he had a 29% chance of winning, which actually fits with his winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote), currently say Trump has a 12% chance of winning the election.

This is not the same election as 2016. Clinton being disliked by a huge proportion of the electorate, Trump being seen as an outsider who might mix it up a bit, and the late intervention of the FBI over Clinton's emails all conspired to push more undecided voters for Trump. Even then, the results were within the margin of error of the polls.

In this election, those undecided (and even moderate Republican) voters appear to be switching to Biden. Early voting is at record levels (currently 70m Americans have already voted) and Democrats have a 2-1 advantage in this. Biden's advantage in the polls is greater than Clinton's was, plus there was late movement towards Trump in the swing states last time, which doesn't appear to being repeated.

Trump cannot win simply by energising his base (who are as loyal as always). He has to win over the undecideds and moderates that he successfully won last time, plus hope that unmotivated Democrats stay at home, none of which appears to be happening.

Now, this doesn't mean that Trump can't win. 12% is 12% after all, and if a surgeon told me that I had a 12% chance of dying during an operation, I would think long and hard about it. But Trump is unlikely to win as things stand and he's running out of time (and voters) to turn that around.
 
You should put a bet on him if you're that certain. FiveThirtyEight Politics, who were the only mainstream organisation to give Trump a realistic chance of victory last time (they said he had a 29% chance of winning, which actually fits with his winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote), currently say Trump has a 12% chance of winning the election.

This is not the same election as 2016. Clinton being disliked by a huge proportion of the electorate, Trump being seen as an outsider who might mix it up a bit, and the late intervention of the FBI over Clinton's emails all conspired to push more undecided voters for Trump. Even then, the results were within the margin of error of the polls.

In this election, those undecided (and even moderate Republican) voters appear to be switching to Biden. Early voting is at record levels (currently 70m Americans have already voted) and Democrats have a 2-1 advantage in this. Biden's advantage in the polls is greater than Clinton's was, plus there was late movement towards Trump in the swing states last time, which doesn't appear to being repeated.

Trump cannot win simply by energising his base (who are as loyal as always). He has to win over the undecideds and moderates that he successfully won last time, plus hope that unmotivated Democrats stay at home, none of which appears to be happening.

Now, this doesn't mean that Trump can't win. 12% is 12% after all, and if a surgeon told me that I had a 12% chance of dying during an operation, I would think long and hard about it. But Trump is unlikely to win as things stand and he's running out of time (and voters) to turn that around.
I already have £200 on Trump
 
This is huge as even with a a significant margin for error it would still take an awful lot to change this around

So close to Election Day could this be the first real sign that trumps days are numbered

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-new-wisconsin-poll-that-has-biden-way-ahead/
With about 40% of votes already cast, that would be a near insurmountable lead in WI.

I've heard from various news sources that Trumps team know he's a busted flush and his loss is inevitable
 
I don't think it's simply Covid he's being judged on is it?
true and for those that either couldn't vote for Hillary, or couldn't vote for a woman, Biden is a simple easy solution for their voting conscience. Add onto that the people that have in the last 4 years recognised what a fraud Trump is, and the fact that Clinton already had a 2% popular vote lead, well Trump should pack his bags already
 
I'm sure there were a lot of shy Trump voters. If any of them were prepared to ignore his worst characteristics in 2016 I'd hope they've seen enough to not do so again.
No such thing
The ones who view as a demi-god will openly say they will vote for him, but there is a large number of people who won't admit to voting for Trump, but who ultimately will. There is not a cat in hells chance Biden will win
sorry, that's nonsense, there really isn't a silent vote for Trump, his supporters are very vocal, even the white collar workers in white collar towns in offices full of Trump haters make it known.
 
From nbc today

“ “Covid, covid, covid, covid, covid, covid cases — do you ever notice they use the word 'cases'? Like Barron Trump has a case, sniffles, one Kleenex and he was better,” Trump told a tightly packed, mostly mask-less crowd here in Michigan's state capital, in remarks downplaying the severity of the virus.

Coronavirus cases are only up because of increased testing, he said, and media coverage of the pandemic is being used to make him look bad. Regarding testing, he said, “in many ways I hate it. We test everybody. … If I told them to cut testing in half and we cut our testing in half, they would go crazy because the cases would go down at approximately half, right?”


- he’s fkin nuts 🤪
 
'I will build a great, great wall on our southern border, and I will have Mexico pay for that wall. Mark my words.'
 
Did anyone see Bill Maher's show last night? One of his guests was Ben Sheehan who has written a book on what the US Constitution actually says. Quite appropriate given how such a lot has been shown to depend on conventional norms rather than anything written down, which is a problem now there is someone there who doesn't give a fig for convention and even tries to twist what is written down out of all proportion. We in the UK are even more reliant on convention and although the Conservative Party 2016- is not quite as bad as Trump, they may be just as destructive as there is traditionally even more emphasis placed on doing the right thing here. As we have found, once there are people like Cummings who deliberately want to wreck the way things have always been done, there is very little possible to hold a rogue executive to account, especially when 17.4 million people have become religious about getting their stupidity enacted.

Apparently in the US, for some states it isn't even legally required that the electoral college declare in accordance with the popular vote. If the Republicans claim voter fraud it is possible that Trump can refuse to concede until after the scheduled inauguration is supposed to take place. In 1876 the election was so disputed a special Commission had to be set up which included Supreme Court Justices who had to make a series of rulings on each disputed State. This compromise only managed to complete the task and settle the election on March 2 1877, two days before the new President was sworn in to office.

Trump won't go quietly, the man has no class. He is a coward though, so if the Army are prepared to move on their Commander In Chief he will go. If his Party back him though, I can see this becoming a huge crisis and potential civil war, because a lot of Trump supporters have been so misinformed by Fox News.
I am impressed you managed to get Brexit into this and your distaste for 17.4 million people.
 
I am impressed you managed to get Brexit into this and your distaste for 17.4 million people.

There is the same failure of critical thinking, that inability to put reason above emotion, that drives all our most stupid decisions. If we don't all learn that, or should I say re-learn it, we are doomed not just as a nation, but as a species and many others with it. My distaste is for that, not the people themselves. This was not a difference in values, which brexiters, still unable to confront their own flawed 'reasoning', tell themselves this was. I'm fine with people having different values. I'm not fine with people being too lazy, too gullible, or too blinkered by overpowering emotions to actually utilize their usual intelligence. I am against stupidity when it affects me. Aren't you?

On a different issue, with the right buttons pushed, I could and no doubt will be just as stupid, because we are all governed by our nature. Evolution has given us powerful instincts as a shortcut to get us through life and pass on our genes, but our instincts are not always right. That is why our brain evolved to sometimes be able to counter that and thousands of years of great minds have built on one another to arrive at a better method for decision making where the issue is not life or death and need not be made in an instant.

Critical thinking isn't easy, it's a skill. We all have it, but sometimes we don't use it. You didn't on Brexit and neither did 17.4 million others. Not one of you. You need to have the humility to be prepared to ask yourself why on earth you thought it was a good idea to ignore experts - I'm sure you don't usually - and believe that Nigel Farage and the most appalling wing of the Conservative Party had your best interests and the best interests of the NHS at heart. You'd have thought the last 4 years of the people who led you into this mess not actually having any competence, or German car manufacturers riding to the rescue, would have given you pause, but it seems not. We are going to have to experience the full sh1tshow it seems. Even then you'll probably struggle to deal with the cognitive dissonance and avoid it.

Don't go whingeing at me for pointing out your shocking stupidity and ignorance, I'm not being nasty believe it or not. I want us all to learn from it because otherwise we can't correct our mistakes and avoid bigger ones in the future. Eff me, you spun a coin in the voting booth and shafted my son's generations future. I'm pretty restrained considering that.
 
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The electoral college is a nightmare. We think our system needs changing but the Democrats have to win 3 million more votes just to have an equal start.
 
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