New Poll shows Biden 17 points ahead of Trump in WI

10 electoral college votes out of at least 270 to win isn't very much. It's more the symbolism - a Trump state last time goes Democrat.
 
What's different about the polls this year compared to 2016? Wasn't Clinton ahead of them too? I've been burned too many times in the past with polls and getting ahead of myself to trust them now.
 
TheYorkshireTerrier said:
What's different about the polls this year compared to 2016? Wasn't Clinton ahead of them too? I've been burned too many times in the past with polls and getting ahead of myself to trust them now.
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She was ahead in national polls by 2-4% , and she did win the national vote by 2.1%

Final polls in states which Trump won were largely in favour of Trump.

As far as I can see, Biden is 5%+ ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which, as long as he doesn't lose any states that CLinton took, would be enough to take the electoral college.
 
I'm sure there were a lot of shy Trump voters. If any of them were prepared to ignore his worst characteristics in 2016 I'd hope they've seen enough to not do so again.
 
Billy Horner said:
He’s getting judged on Covid in the mid-west. Many such states are currently recording record cases and deaths, during a 3rd wave of a virus that Trump claimed would magically disappear in March.
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Yay let's blame Trump for covid-19. He's the devil who left it unchecked and let it spread around the world.

Yanks. No hopes.
 
There is no way in the world Biden will win. There's not a single person who passionately wants Biden as president. Those who back Biden only do so because they oppose Trump. Trump has demi God status with huge numbers of voters. The apathy towards Biden will be his downfall, as lots won't bother to go and vote as they think he's already won. Trump by a fine margin is the only likely outcome. the polls are nonsense. People don't want to say they will vote Trump, but come election day they will
 
Londons_Moggie said:
There is no way in the world Biden will win. There's not a single person who passionately wants Biden as president. Those who back Biden only do so because they oppose Trump. Trump has demi God status with huge numbers of voters. The apathy towards Biden will be his downfall, as lots won't bother to go and vote as they think he's already won. Trump by a fine margin is the only likely outcome. the polls are nonsense. People don't want to say they will vote Trump, but come election day they will
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If he has demi-god status, why do his followers not want say they will vote for him?

I think there's a mistaken belief Trump speaks for some silent majority, but neither he nor they have ever been silent.
 
Frozen Horse said:
If he has demi-god status, why do his followers not want say they will vote for him?

I think there's a mistaken belief Trump speaks for some silent majority, but neither he nor they have ever been silent.
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I'm not sure mind.

How many 'silent' voters voted for the Tories round these parts for example?
 
Frozen Horse said:
She was ahead in national polls by 2-4% , and she did win the national vote by 2.1%

Final polls in states which Trump won were largely in favour of Trump.

As far as I can see, Biden is 5%+ ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which, as long as he doesn't lose any states that CLinton took, would be enough to take the electoral college.
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Did anyone see Bill Maher's show last night? One of his guests was Ben Sheehan who has written a book on what the US Constitution actually says. Quite appropriate given how such a lot has been shown to depend on conventional norms rather than anything written down, which is a problem now there is someone there who doesn't give a fig for convention and even tries to twist what is written down out of all proportion. We in the UK are even more reliant on convention and although the Conservative Party 2016- is not quite as bad as Trump, they may be just as destructive as there is traditionally even more emphasis placed on doing the right thing here. As we have found, once there are people like Cummings who deliberately want to wreck the way things have always been done, there is very little possible to hold a rogue executive to account, especially when 17.4 million people have become religious about getting their stupidity enacted.

Apparently in the US, for some states it isn't even legally required that the electoral college declare in accordance with the popular vote. If the Republicans claim voter fraud it is possible that Trump can refuse to concede until after the scheduled inauguration is supposed to take place. In 1876 the election was so disputed a special Commission had to be set up which included Supreme Court Justices who had to make a series of rulings on each disputed State. This compromise only managed to complete the task and settle the election on March 2 1877, two days before the new President was sworn in to office.

Trump won't go quietly, the man has no class. He is a coward though, so if the Army are prepared to move on their Commander In Chief he will go. If his Party back him though, I can see this becoming a huge crisis and potential civil war, because a lot of Trump supporters have been so misinformed by Fox News.
 
Lefty said:
Apparently in the US, for some states it isn't even legally required that the electoral college declare in accordance with the popular vote.
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It isn’t m, the only thing that counts is the voter at the electoral college votes they are not legally bound to honour the election result.
 
Frozen Horse said:
If he has demi-god status, why do his followers not want say they will vote for him?

I think there's a mistaken belief Trump speaks for some silent majority, but neither he nor they have ever been silent.
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The ones who view as a demi-god will openly say they will vote for him, but there is a large number of people who won't admit to voting for Trump, but who ultimately will. There is not a cat in hells chance Biden will win
 
Londons_Moggie said:
The ones who view as a demi-god will openly say they will vote for him, but there is a large number of people who won't admit to voting for Trump, but who ultimately will. There is not a cat in hells chance Biden will win
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Happy to revisit this over the next few weeks, but here's my question. How many people who voted for Hilary last time (one of the most hated candidates there has been) will suddenly vote for Trump? Very few I'd say. How many people who took a chance on Trump either because of said hatred of Hilary or for the chance of something new and positive, will be reversing their decision this time around? A fair few I'd say. That also doesn't take into account the youth vote who appear to be actually voting this time around!
 
Londons_Moggie said:
The ones who view as a demi-god will openly say they will vote for him, but there is a large number of people who won't admit to voting for Trump, but who ultimately will. There is not a cat in hells chance Biden will win
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I'd like to think that polling has got a little more sophisticated in the US since 2016. In the UK, polling cos were burned in 2016 and 2017, but got it pretty much spot on in 2019. He is massively targeting Latinos in Florida, who may swing his way - but it's hard to see him pull it back in MI, PA and WI.
 
Jostler said:
Happy to revisit this over the next few weeks, but here's my question. How many people who voted for Hilary last time (one of the most hated candidates there has been) will suddenly vote for Trump? Very few I'd say. How many people who took a chance on Trump either because of said hatred of Hilary or for the chance of something new and positive, will be reversing their decision this time around? A fair few I'd say. That also doesn't take into account the youth vote who appear to be actually voting this time around!
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Clinton won the popular vote by 2.8m and that was with voter suppression in it's infancy. I've seen estimates that voter suppression techniques could be as effective as 16m this time round. It won't need to be this high as long as it is targeted well.
 
Not a cat in hell's chance? Nothing like a bit of hyperbole is there? 😂

I'm not optimistic but to completely discount the polls is ridiculous. If Trump wins he'll probably lose the popular vote again. It certainly won't be a landslide so Biden has quite a bit more than a "cat in hell's chance" I'd say. Even if I do expect him to lose (although that's probably based on a gut feeling born out constant disappointment as much as anything else).
 
Londons_Moggie said:
The ones who view as a demi-god will openly say they will vote for him, but there is a large number of people who won't admit to voting for Trump, but who ultimately will. There is not a cat in hells chance Biden will win
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What about all the people who wouldn't vote for Clinton. Trump was an unknown last time. You're right about Trump supporters being highly motivated to vote for him, but even Trump supporters admit they could happily have a beer with Biden. Trump doesn't have enough ardent supporters on their own to get him back in office, he hasn't won over any moderates and his opponent isn't actively putting off opposition voters.

All Trump has is to rig the game sufficiently.
 
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