Villa bid for Morgan Rogers

B_G said:
Now we buy cheap and sell big when players valuations are met. If we sold Rogers for 8mil we wouldn't spend 8mil and try and replace him like for like would we.

We'd buy another 3 or 4 0-2mil youngsters and hope we find another 2 or 3 Morgans. We might have already signed our first one in Azaz 👀

Everyone seems to have accepted that the model is to buy cheap and sell at a profit. But teams are only going to pay what a player is worth. There's no point playing hard ball and demanding 15mil if he's not worth it and no one is willing to pay it. If he doesn't come on over the next 12-18 months then we may well have missed the boat.

I think 7-10mil is real valuation of Rogers. 10mil+ would be a huge fee for him. That's my opinion.
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I do agree with you but buying and selling at a profit also involves knowing when the best time to sell is to maximise your investment.

Going back to the housing example. If you were buying a house as an investment to do up and then sell at a profit you might buy a house that you think is potentially worth £300k but it's on the market for £150k and with £50k worth of work it'll be worth £300k. If you are 3 months in after paying £150k, spending £20k on improvements and someone offers you £200k then you don't sell just because it is profitable when you know with a bit more time and the other £30k you could get £300k. If they offered £300k right away you'd take it though.

That's where we are with Rogers. Yes, it would be profitable to sell now for £6m but it's not the best price we can achieve because we believe he will be worth £10m+ in the summer (and we also get the benefit of having him in our team).
 
WilliamMunny said:
Because flipping quickly for a few million profit won't make the model a success. Brentford bought Watkins for £1.8m then sold him for £28m after 3 years, before replacing him with Toney for £7m, who they now want £100m for! Presumably there was some interest within that 3 years but Brentford didn't think "hey, we've been offered £6.5m for a player we paid £1.8m for, let's bank the profit". They knew he was a good player and potentially worth more so they kept him as long as they could until they got mega money.

There's nothing wrong with the "model" we are trying to copy/implement, but we don't need the cash right now so why sell for a small profit when there is a very good chance of an even bigger profit in 6 months time, and we get to keep a rapidly improving player for our promotion push (which lets not forget is worth £170m+).
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There's a lot of things need to happen before you can compare Rogers with Toney or Watkins. Firstly we need to get promoted. Secondly he needs to perform at a really high level in the PL. Thirdly he needs to be on the fringes of the international team. All of these things are unlikely to happen. Yes we could gamble on those things happening or we could sell now if a substantial offer is made with a guaranteed healthy profit,

Given that we've had to sell a player for £10m+ each year for the last couple of seasons to improve our financial position, I wouldn't be too upset if Rogers was the player we had to sell this year. It's better than selling Hackney.
Although I do think it's inevitable that Hackney leaves.
 
Nano said:
I do agree with you but buying and selling at a profit also involves knowing when the best time to sell is to maximise your investment.

Going back to the housing example. If you were buying a house as an investment to do up and then sell at a profit you might buy a house that you think is potentially worth £300k but it's on the market for £150k and with £50k worth of work it'll be worth £300k. If you are 3 months in after paying £150k, spending £20k on improvements and someone offers you £200k then you don't sell just because it is profitable when you know with a bit more time and the other £30k you could get £300k. If they offered £300k right away you'd take it though.

That's where we are with Rogers. Yes, it would be profitable to sell now for £6m but it's not the best price we can achieve because we believe he will be worth £10m+ in the summer (and we also get the benefit of having him in our team).
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Top post Nano.

I'd also add that, in your example, if an estate agent contacts you to say Elon Musk is interested in buying the property, you'd no longer be looking for £300k but considerably more.
 
Nano said:
I do agree with you but buying and selling at a profit also involves knowing when the best time to sell is to maximise your investment.

Going back to the housing example. If you were buying a house as an investment to do up and then sell at a profit you might buy a house that you think is potentially worth £300k but it's on the market for £150k and with £50k worth of work it'll be worth £300k. If you are 3 months in after paying £150k, spending £20k on improvements and someone offers you £200k then you don't sell just because it is profitable when you know with a bit more time and the other £30k you could get £300k. If they offered £300k right away you'd take it though.

That's where we are with Rogers. Yes, it would be profitable to sell now for £6m but it's not the best price we can achieve because we believe he will be worth £10m+ in the summer (and we also get the benefit of having him in our team).
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There's a massive difference between comparing football players and houses. Houses are virtually guaranteed to increase in value and house valuations are fairly stable.

Footballers aren't guaranteed to increase in value and the footballers value is very volatile based on form, fitness, development and also demand.

I think 6mil is too low by the way. But 8-10mil would be good business and 10+mil would be excellent.
 
B_G said:
There's a lot of things need to happen before you can compare Rogers with Toney or Watkins. Firstly we need to get promoted. Secondly he needs to perform at a really high level in the PL. Thirdly he needs to be on the fringes of the international team. All of these things are unlikely to happen. Yes we could gamble on those things happening or we could sell now if a substantial offer is made with a guaranteed healthy profit,

Given that we've had to sell a player for £10m+ each year for the last couple of seasons to improve our financial position, I wouldn't be too upset if Rogers was the player we had to sell this year. It's better than selling Hackney.
Although I do think it's inevitable that Hackney leaves.
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Watkins was sold before Brentford were promoted. Also before he'd ever played a single game in the Premier League. Oh and miles before he was on the fringes of the England team.
But apart from that your 3 points regarding him were spot on.🤪
 
The Card Cheat said:
Watkins was sold before Brentford were promoted. Also before he'd ever played a single game in the Premier League. Oh and miles before he was on the fringes of the England team.
But apart from that your 3 points regarding him were spot on.🤪
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Fair comment. Was thinking more about Toney's 100m price tag while posting that.
But Watkins was far more proven than Rogers is when he moved to Villa
 
Theres a lot of assumption that Rogers might cause issues if he doesnt get a move but I dont think thats likely to happen. Rogers seems a decent lad but more importantly he is a developing player rather than a player who has reached his potential. If he lets this affect his performances on the pitch he can kiss good bye to a move to the premier league.

The timing of this just doesnt suit us. Unless Villa are prepared to pay well over the odds which doesnt seem to be the case given the derisory £4m reported offer, Rogers will almost certainly be worth more at the end of the season.
 
B_G said:
There's a massive difference between comparing football players and houses. Houses are virtually guaranteed to increase in value and house valuations are fairly stable.

Footballers aren't guaranteed to increase in value and the footballers value is very volatile based on form, fitness, development and also demand.

I think 6mil is too low by the way. But 8-10mil would be good business and 10+mil would be excellent.
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Is this before or after the City cut?

I can only see it being worth our while selling him for £12m+
 
B_G said:
There's a lot of things need to happen before you can compare Rogers with Toney or Watkins. Firstly we need to get promoted. Secondly he needs to perform at a really high level in the PL. Thirdly he needs to be on the fringes of the international team. All of these things are unlikely to happen. Yes we could gamble on those things happening or we could sell now if a substantial offer is made with a guaranteed healthy profit,

Given that we've had to sell a player for £10m+ each year for the last couple of seasons to improve our financial position, I wouldn't be too upset if Rogers was the player we had to sell this year. It's better than selling Hackney.
Although I do think it's inevitable that Hackney leaves.
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For a start, I didn't actually compare Morgan with Watkins, but as you've done that, let me correct you. Watkins never got promoted with Brentford, had never played in the PL and was nowhere near the fringes of the England team when Villa paid £28m (rising to £33m) for him. And that fee was in 2020, with the equivalent in 2024 probably being around £40m.

I'm not saying Morgan is currently "worth" £15m, £20m, £30m or £40m, but he might be one of those lower figures in the summer of 2024 and one of the higher figures in summer 2025. Nothing is guaranteed, but look at Gyokeres for example, Coventry wouldn't sell for £6m, £8m, £10m last summer, but got £20m this summer. 6 months later it is rumoured that Chelsea and Arsenal are interested at £70m+. In the current market, it makes no sense for us to accept a lowball offer for a player who's value is almost certain to keep rising, unless we actually think it won't go any higher.

If Villa want him now, we should hold out for £15m (I'd maybe settle for £12m plus 25% of any future transfer profit). That's not to say he's done enough to be viewed as a £15m player, but in 6-18 months time he could be worth a lot more than that. And despite having a lot of options, this guy is potentially our best number 10 and could yet fire us to promotion. Unless we have a striker lined up and need the money to finance that deal (which we shouldn't as we can balance the books in the summer), I just don't see why we would put profit now above potential promotion and a potentially even bigger profit in the summer.
 
InglebyUTB said:
Is this before or after the City cut?

I can only see it being worth our while selling him for £12m+
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I don't know what the City cut is and the City cut is irrelevant to Villa. They aren't going to pay us an extra £3mil for a player because we owe City a cut. They'll pay what they think he's worth.

I think 8-10mil is slightly above what he's worth and would be good business. If we owe 20% of that to City we've still made a healthy profit.
 
BoroBourneNBred said:
His head has been turned, get as much as we can for him, simple
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Absolutely no evidence that his head has been turned, beyond journalists saying he'd be interested, which is something so obvious that it doesn't even need saying, any Championship player would be interested.

It would be a ridiculous strategy to just sell any players that have interest in them, just in case they stop performing.
 
WilliamMunny said:
I'm not saying Morgan is currently "worth" £15m, £20m, £30m or £40m, but he might be one of those lower figures in the summer of 2024 and one of the higher figures in summer 2025. Nothing is guaranteed, but look at Gyokeres for example, Coventry wouldn't sell for £6m, £8m, £10m last summer, but got £20m this summer. 6 months later it is rumoured that Chelsea and Arsenal are interested at £70m+. In the current market, it makes no sense for us to accept a lowball offer for a player who's value is almost certain to keep rising, unless we actually think it won't go any higher.
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WilliamMunny said:
If Villa want him now, we should hold out for £15m (I'd maybe settle for £12m plus 25% of any future transfer profit). That's not to say he's done enough to be viewed as a £15m player, but in 6-18 months time he could be worth a lot more than that. And despite having a lot of options, this guy is potentially our best number 10 and could yet fire us to promotion. Unless we have a striker lined up and need the money to finance that deal (which we shouldn't as we can balance the books in the summer), I just don't see why we would put profit above potential promotion and a potentially even bigger profit in the summer.
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Gyokeres performed at a much higher level than Rogers for a couple of seasons and still went for 20m Euro or £17.1m.
How can you say that Morgan Rogers is worth £15m+ now? Basically the same as what Gyokeres was in the summer,

There is an argument that you think he will become a £15m+ player over the next two seasons like Gyokeres did and to hang on to him but there's no way anyone is paying that now. That would be a gamble. Rogers isn't performing anywhere close to that level right now. I don't think he'll get to that level personally.
 
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