Randy
Well-known member
But cases cases cases .Deaths for week of 17th July:- 8,823
5 year average:- 9,093
But cases cases cases .Deaths for week of 17th July:- 8,823
5 year average:- 9,093
But cases cases cases .
You must remember that this data is only useful when it is above the average it becomes meaningless when it's substantially below the average.
I think you’ve accidentally used the word ‘substantially’ in the wrong part of your post.
For each of the two peak weeks in April, recorded deaths were around 22,000 compared with the 5-year average of around 10,000. That’s an increase above the average of 12,000 per week, or 120%.
For each of the several weeks either side of the peak, recorded deaths were also several thousand above the 5-year average. This is how we’ve arrived at a situation of more than 60,000 excess deaths so far this year.
For the week ending 17th July, which you have highlighted, recorded deaths were 270, or 3%, below the 5-year average.
I think most people would describe the former situation as substantially different to the average rather than the latter.
I'll get figures thrown at me. Lockdown this lockdown that, even though we've been out of one for ages nowOk thanks for cherry picking my statement I shall edit it to average.
Randy raises a good point that you will not answer I mean it's a straight shooter for me.. yes.
Would you expect to see deaths below average during a world ending pandemic? Yes or no question.
Turn on the news or read a paper.Yes. It's a well known phenomenon known as mortality displacement.
Basically, as the majority of those who have died are older people and/or those with underlying health conditions, it is recognised that some of those may have died in the short-term anyway. As time progresses, the fact that people have already passed away has an impact on the number of people who pass away later on.
To put this in context, however, at the halfway point of the year the UK had experienced 65,000 excess deaths. In the past four weeks we have had just over 1,000 fewer deaths than the 5-year average, so we're still massively above expected levels.
PS - I don't recall anyone suggesting that the pandemic was going to be "world ending".
Yes. It's a well known phenomenon known as mortality displacement.
Basically, as the majority of those who have died are older people and/or those with underlying health conditions, it is recognised that some of those may have died in the short-term anyway. As time progresses, the fact that people have already passed away has an impact on the number of people who pass away later on.
To put this in context, however, at the halfway point of the year the UK had experienced 65,000 excess deaths. In the past four weeks we have had just over 1,000 fewer deaths than the 5-year average, so we're still massively above expected levels.
PS - I don't recall anyone suggesting that the pandemic was going to be "world ending".
I'd suggest it's after not during
Edit- a cursory search shows just that
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement
Deaths for week of 17th July:- 8,823
5 year average:- 9,093
You must remember that this data is only useful when it is above the average it becomes meaningless when it's below the average.
Actually it doesn’t, there is less people to kill cos 60000 excess deaths happened. Naturally it should be under if people have been killed off a few months early. The data suggest that it’s only killed a few of them as it’s tracking only slightly under
Given that you give credence to q1 being under cos q4 was higher, why doesn’t this collate to tracking further under the 5 year average Based on how much we were over
I'd suggest it's after not during
Edit- a cursory search shows just that
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement
Which pandemic are you basing your evidence on for this one. Just cos we haven’t got excess deaths right now doesn’t mean their isn’t a pandemic. Just the same as when the eye of the storm is over your house doesn’t mean the hurricane is over
Just the same as cases increases isn’t seeing higher hospital dependency doesn't mean we haven’t had an element of herd immunity.
Based on current evidence the top one is most likely, but you can’t discount the 2nd one, but it’s harder to prove
I don't understand what your saying..