"Something is definitely not well in Russia.
Strelkov was said to have been accused by prosecutors for both having discredited the army, and to have embessled funds for the war effort.
This turned out to not be true, at least not yet.
Instead it was a few female Russians (probably widows) who had lodged complaints against Strelkov.
Strelkov himself answered this and stated that he had not been contacted by any official agency, and defiantly stated that he would not shut up from telling the truth.
He also said that he had filed all documents in regards of the aid with the government agencies.
He then stated again that it was time to pull out of Ukraine.
Prigozhin followed this up with saying almost the same thing.
He said that they may take Bakhmut, but that after that Russia should stop all offensive manouvres, and that it was likely that Russia would then be pushed out of Ukraine, and that it might be time to pull out of Ukraine.
Regardless, it is more and more clear that Wagner inside of Ukraine is a spent force.
They have gone from covering a 90km frontier down to only 5km.
General wisdom is that this is due to Ukraine having depleted the forces, this is definitely true for the convicts.
But, for the real well trained Wagners it is not entirely true, many of those have been pulled out and sent either to Africa, or back into Russia.
My take is that Prigozhin is getting ready for what is coming, and having a private army nearby is to his advantage.
It is here also good to know that Wagner are still recruiting inside of Russia, but those troops are not sent to Ukraine.
There are also reports that the professional side of the army (Gerasimov, Surovikin, etc) want to pull out of Donbas completely and divert all resources into defending the approach to Crimea (Southern Kherson and Zhaprozhzhia), and Crimea itself.
They want to defend that at all cost.
The political side of the army that is headed by Soyghurt with the backing of Lavrov and Peskov want to continue the all out attack from the current frontlines.
All of the Victory Day Parades except the one in Moscow has now been cancelled it seems.
In Russian channels there is a lot of talk about the one in Moscow being likely to be targeted by Ukraine, and that it might not be healthy to be around it.
See my previous musing on why the offensive is likely to start ahead of the 9th of May.
There are more and more intercepted phone calls of Russian mobiks saying that Russia can no longer pay their salaries and that they are going to be pulled out of Ukraine and be demobilised. If it was one or two I would just say hopefull Russians, but with dozens each day calling back home to say that they will be going home... I am not so sure any longer.
Belgorod
There has been rumours for about a week that Ukraine is about to do a major attack against Russia and take Belgorod, Bryansk & Kursk oblasts.
Personally I have always had this option on my mind since it is strategically sound to put pressure on Russia, but since the US is against it I have always put it on the back burner as a late stage option.
So, I was not surprised really when this rumour started to spread.
What did surprise me was the source of that rumour.
About a week ago Naryshkin and Bortnikov sent out a memo from Surovikin on the subject to the top ranks in Moscow.
In the memo it states clearly why and how Ukraine would attack and take the Oblasts.
How is due to the lack of troops available to defend the area, it is by far the least well protected part of the frontline.
In other words, it would be an easy catch for Ukraine.
Then they went on to state that they saw large accumulations of Ukrainian troops in this direction filled to the brim with weastern tech, and the not so small fact that Ukraine are performing large and deep ranging artillery fire missions into all 3 Oblasts.
The why is also stated.
That Ukraine would take them, and offer them back to Russia for leaving all of Ukraine including Crimea.
It is clearly noted that Russia would be forced to accept the terms and that the war then would be over.
The report then goes on in detail of the Surovikin plan.
It entails moving remaining troops from Moscow and St Petersburg towards the border as a deep reserve force, and to move 40 percent of the troops in Donbas out to take positions along the border, and finally to move all Russian soldiers out of Belarus to the border.
According to "Sauces" in Moscow Soyghurt, Peskov and Lavrov vehemently opposed this, but that the Siloviki and Gerasimov supported it...
Note that I up above pointed to the professionals wanting to pull out, and the politicals not wanting to do that. It may be a part of an internal convoluted campaign to set that up.
Conclusion
Russia is turning into a powderkegg as different "parties" are pulling in different directions, and some are quietly getting ready for a coup, or for civil war.
I am certain that the professional army guys want to pull out to avoid a civil war.
If they are back home they could easily in a very heavy handed way cut any attempt at that short, especially if they have the backing of the Siloviki.
Who are then the players?
Well, let us start with Lavrov, Peskov and Soyghurt (LPS)
The are increasingly looking like they are without support from both the Siloviki and the Army.
They might try to ally themselves with the following 3 groupings.
Kadyrov, he is definitely the type that would go for it if he sees a chance for succeeding, problem is just that he has problems at home, with several reports of his troops having been attacked by someone or something, be it internal in Chechnya or outside forces.
This has forced him to pull back home almost all Kadyrovites from Ukraine.
He is a natural ally of LPS, and might see them in turn as a way to legitimising his rule of he succeeds in taking power.
Prigozhin, deeply hated by everyone in the military and among the Siloviki.
Sort of "pall" with Kadyrov, and might become useful for LPS in a powerstruggle.
Prigozhin is though seen as someone who could easily turn on them if he gains on that.
Strelkov, oh boy... where to even begin?
He has set himself up as a way to return to the Good Old Days of Russia pre 1914.
This has somehow struck a chord with a large part of the Russian population, also him being open, critical, and factually honest, has made him seen by many as a breath of fresh air.
He is openly supported by the Siloviki.
And he has indeed criticised the Russian army, but in a way that puts the blame squarely on "the politicians" and Putin. This has made the army neutral to him.
In other words, he is critical of the LPS grouping and would sweap them aside as dungflies if he got to power.
He is in many ways far shrewder than the others.
He has a political party, and a political movement.
He seems to be gunning for the general election of 2024, but could theoretically act prior to that moment since he is backed by the Siloviki intelligence armies.
Unless LPS somehow succeeds in having him arrested, and that would be hard indeed since nobody knows where he is, he will be the main force if Russia fails in Ukraine, or if Russia falls internaly."